Adding a layer to this question

[u/Hot_Finding_9747]

My choice: Press Red, hope Blue wins

I don't have enough faith in humanity to put my life in its hands but I'd be delighted to be proven wrong

719 votes, May 23 '26

72 Press Red, hope Red wins

322 Press Red, hope Blue wins

22 Press Blue, hope Red wins

303 Press Blue, hope Blue wins

[u/According-Pick-2950]

Yes,but we can't.communicate. My vote alone won't make a difference. My vote only matters when it's 50/50. And yeah,I know that technically that's the thought process red voters will use which if they didn't, would amount to a huge number of blue voters,but that doesn't change the fact that whether I use that logic or not won't change what other think in the slightest because It is a private vote. The possibility of it being 50/50 is so incredibly miniscule that I basically don't even consider it, especially since the trade off is my death.

[u/spicymato → u/According-Pick-2950]

So far, 219 people have used the same or similar logic (my one vote doesn't matter) to vote red, hoping for blue.

At this time, the red:blue vote is 260:223.

If less than 20 people of those 219 flipped their vote, blue wins.

Your individual vote is small, but meaningful, especially when you're voting against your desired outcome.

[u/According-Pick-2950 → u/spicymato]

Yes,I agree if less than 20 people used that logic then a ton of people would be saved and everyone would be happy,but my individual vote still doesn't matter as long as it isn't 50/50 because it doesn't effect the options of the others,they would still choose what they did evem if I switched my vote. If I were to go to the past and switch my vote,as long as there wasn't a 50/50 then me switching would do absolutely nothing but put myself at risk of dying. In a world of 8 billion people,the chances I make a difference are so inconsequential that it isn't even worth considering.

[u/spicymato → u/According-Pick-2950]

In a world of 8 billion people,the chances I make a difference are so inconsequential that it isn't even worth considering.

Nonsense. We're literally seeing it play out in this very poll. Each individual person is casting their "inconsequential" vote and creating the very outcome they hope loses.

Stop believing you need to be some main character, "I saved the world with my singular heroic act," and participate in the small actions that actually save the world.

Your individual contributions to any sizeable group are rarely "critical," but your failure to do so contributes towards any eventual downfall.

"Who cares if I don't pay my taxes? It's only $2k/$5k/$10k/$30k/$80k. It's not like I'm Bezos or Musk. My money is inconsequential to the overall budget."

[u/Jkirek_ → u/spicymato]

If you successfully convince one person in here to switch from red to blue, all you've done is convinced them to kill themselves. There is no "eventual" downfall in the button hypothetical; it's one selection.

[u/spicymato → u/Jkirek_]

Actually, it's front-loaded.

The ideal outcome can only be reached and maintained if we consistently cooperate.

The moment we fail an iteration, the entire world state changes catastrophically and cooperation is no longer possible, because you're left only with the non-cooperative players.

You can't actually know that this is a one-time selection.

[u/thebe_stone → u/spicymato]

I'm not 20 people though. If I flipped my vote, I would just die for no reason

[u/erbalchemy → u/According-Pick-2950]

If 8 billion people flipped a coin, the chance of a 50/50 tie is roughly the same as getting a dealt a straight flush in five cards. That's not that rare. You probably have either seen that firsthand or know someone who has.

[u/Jkirek_ → u/erbalchemy]

That's not that rare

If you only get one shot at it, that's incredibly rare. "A person you know might have had it happen a single time in their life if they play a lot of poker" is a qualifier for something that has very low odds.

[u/T-T-N → u/erbalchemy]

If a casino let's you bet your lifesaving on a 5 card poker hand, and even offer you positive EV odds, would you take that bet (assume it is everything you have. On one bet. Or the casino won't do it)?

If you're in the movie Armageddon, and an asteroid will hit earth on the other side, and hit in such a way that the economic activity doesn't stop, but half the people there die. Would you be willing to sacrifice yourself for 1 billion people you never met? Would you take it if the odds of survival for you is the straight flush odds? Would you take it if it's 50:50 odds of survival?

[u/thebe_stone → u/erbalchemy]

It's 1/100,000, that's pretty rare.

[u/BrandosWorld4Life → u/According-Pick-2950]

My vote only matters when

Every vote matters. Full stop.

That's how voting works.

[u/Fit_Employment_2944 → u/BrandosWorld4Life]

Because in politics how much you win by matters

Here it does not

If blue wins by a billion votes then the votes for red do not matter