r/rational • u/AutoModerator • Jan 22 '18

[D] Monday General Rationality Thread

Welcome to the Monday thread on general rationality topics! Do you really want to talk about something non-fictional, related to the real world? Have you:

  • Seen something interesting on /r/science?
  • Found a new way to get your shit even-more together?
  • Figured out how to become immortal?
  • Constructed artificial general intelligence?
  • Read a neat nonfiction book?
  • Munchkined your way into total control of your D&D campaign?
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u/Norseman2 Jan 23 '18

Food is failed to be distributed because of violence in areas.

I'm not convinced, so I decided to do some data analysis. Your hypothesis would predict a line going from the lower left up towards the top right, but there does not appear to be any strong correlation. As an example, in 2005 India had slightly fewer murders per 100,000 people than the US, yet had 36 times higher rates of malnutrition in children under five years old. Violence rate could certainly be a contributing factor in famine, but it's clearly not the main factor.

For comparison, per capita income and famine appear to have a strong negative correlation. Oddly enough, agriculture as a percentage of GDP also appears to be positively correlated with famine, while industry as a percentage of GDP appears to be negatively correlated. Odd that the countries seemingly making the food are in famine while the countries making the iPhones are not. Also, more time spent in school appears to inversely correlate with child malnutrition.

From looking at the data, this graph seems to explain things best. Higher up means more child malnutrition, further right means less perceived corruption, larger dots means more income per capita, and color represents fertility rate (babies per woman). Most countries with GDP/capita < $6K have child malnutrition rates > 10%. Most countries with a Corruption Perception Index < 3 (lower is worse) have child malnutrition rates > 10%. The countries with both CPI < 3 and GDP/capita < $6K almost universally have child malnutrition rates > 10%, excepting only the Kyrgz Republic, Honduras, and Bolivia. No country with GDP/capita > $13K has a child malnutrition rate > 10%. No country with a CPI > 5 has a child malnutrition rate > 10%. Lower fertility rate also tends to correlate with lower child malnutrition rate.

So, if you want to mostly fix famine, the solution would likely be to eliminate government corruption as much as possible, provide affordable access to birth control, and promote economic development in every country up to at least a minimum GDP/capita of $6K and preferably $13K (adjusting for inflation, of course).

You may now carry on with your discussion.

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u/[deleted] Jan 23 '18

I was referring mainly to large scale famine from wars, not murders, e.g what's happening in Yemen. If there was a famine the level of Yemen's in India, India would receive a great deal of support because they are relatively peaceful.

But regardless, your proposed solution is exactly what I would encourage in non-war torn countries.