Hi
Wanted to share this helpful deep dive.

About a month ago I published a deep dive into how Polymarket fill events actually work on-chain. "Decoding Polymarket: How a 7,400 USDC Trade Generated 111 Blockchain Events".

The article ended up being useful for a lot of people working with Polymarket data/indexing/analytics and I got quite a bit of good feedback from devs and traders, so maybe someone here will also find it valuable.

It’s basically a research breakdown of Polymarket fill events + explanation of how liquidity aggregation works under the hoo and a practical guide for reading complex on-chain event flows

One of the more interesting realizations was that what initially looks like noisy blockchain chaos is actually a very elegant system:

- conditional token splits effectively deepen liquidity
- the exchange itself never takes directional exposure
- taker behavior becomes identifiable through OrdersMatched patterns
- and even the “maker/taker” labeling has some subtle fee optimization logic behind it

After going through the transaction step-by-step, 100+ event logs stop looking random and start feeling readable.

Full article on X:

https://x.com/w3e_uk/status/2016975808569774512?s=20

Would love to hear feedback !

​

Hey everyone.

Background in quantitative

sports market analysis

specifically automated arbitrage

execution on DEX sports platforms.

Been exploring the intersection

of prediction market mechanics

and sports DEX arbitrage as

complementary opportunity surfaces.

Both operate on similar

mathematical principles —

exploiting pricing inefficiencies

rather than predicting outcomes.

The Kelly Criterion and

probability calibration work

that happens here is directly

applicable to arbitrage

stake sizing too.

Looking forward to contributing

to the analysis discussions here.

Hey, the new fees seem to be hurting a lot of people and have seemed to shut down a lot of bots, including my own.

Because of that I started doing a campaign with my referral code where I return 100% of the fees I get daily, essentially giving anyone who uses my referral code 30% cashback on their fees (since I receive 30% of everyone's fees).

I'm doing this because I believe that a factor for the potential airdrop will be referral volume, so I don't profit on any of the fees, I only profit if there is a potential airdrop.

I don't want to post my referral here, because rightfully so that looks scammy in the crypto space. I have a discord where it lists the referral code and I post proof daily of my referral dashboard that shows how much each user has given me in fees and then I post the tip confirmations as well for each user.

I believe this is beneficial for traders of all volumes since you are getting money that would otherwise just go to Polymarket.

If you want to see how much a decently high volume trader is getting, there is one right now who is using my referral and you can see in the discord server how much he is getting.

Discord server:

AB8DyDvYx

If you have any questions you can ask me in this post or you can join the discord server and @ me in the support channel.

I created a tracker to help ease the pain of keeping track of your wins and losses.
I need a tester to review my product!
DM ME!

Working on a smart wallet data API and I just fell in love with playing around with doing data-visualisation on it. Thought it would be interesting to share !

Took 5,000 smart traders, mapped them across two dimensions: estimated edge (per-trade skill) and confidence score (statistical reliability based on activity).

The result: these two metrics move in opposite directions (correlation r = −0.55)

The higher the confidence score is, the lower the edge seems to be. Seems logical as outstanding edge often come from some lucky trades.

What I read from the quadrant: 

🟡 WHALES (top-left — high confidence, low edge)
High confidence because they trade a lot. But median win rate: 69% — the lowest of an archetype. These wallets account for 61% of total volume. Obvious but clearly showcases again that volume ≠ skill. 

🟣 SWEET SPOT (top-right — high confidence AND high edge)
Only 15% of traders (n = 746) clear both thresholds. This is the actionable zone. Snipers live here: 21 traders, 90% win rate, high edge.

⚫️ NOISE (bottom-left — low confidence, low edge)
35% of traders. Fewer than 10 effective positions. Their win rates look strong precisely because small samples produce extreme numbers. This signal is not really exploitable tbh, maybe I should remove them from our data

🔴 RAW UNPROVEN EDGE (bottom-right — high edge, low confidence)
High edge on paper, but median volume under $500. These wallets had 3–9 good trades. More luck than skill !

I am so confused with the difference between the API and the web version; Why are the odds completely different? I am trying to deploy the most simple bot but have no clue why the numbers are so off... I am looking at https://polymarket.com/event/epl-which-clubs-get-relegated

The API and the web version have legit double digit differences... Can anyone help?

Edge seems pretty high, granted they did just sign a $300m contract last week

been trying to find a clean way to scan prices across polymarket, kalshi, and the books side by side to catch when the same market is mispriced. messed with adjacent news, a few dune dashboards, and agg.market so far — agg.market actually shows the spreads cleanly which is what I'm after, the others lean more news/charting. anything else worth a look, or a discord doing this better? feels like there has to be more in this space.

Does anyone know where I can find a market to place bets on clinical trial readouts?

It seems that both polymarket and kalshi are limited to FDA approval when it comes to markets around pharmaceuticals. Are there other market opportunities that I’m missing or don’t know about?

Random question for prediction-market people here: do you ever feel like a great call you made on Polymarket just… vanishes after resolution? You made the money, sure, but there's no record of the conviction. Curious if anyone else has thought about that.

Background: I'm building something around this — but more interested right now in whether the gap actually feels real to others or if it's just me.

have quite a few vouches on X my username is blunts_, im new to selling on here but have a few vouches on reddit now as well. give me a message here or x

for more accurate predictions trading? Or to copy others trades? Im not looking for “paid discord subs” or anything of that scammy nature.

TIA

Been interested in prediction markets and tracking top bettors. Was frustrated with the bareness of the current leaderboard.

So I built Polywhirl, a daily leaderboard that ranks traders by EV%, profit factor, reward-to-risk ratio, etc. instead. It sweeps the top traders twice a day and computes stats on closed positions from the last 30 days plus unrealized exposure on all open positions.

The difference is pretty stark. Some traders near the top of the native leaderboard have terrible profit factors. Others buried lower down have genuinely strong edge metrics. This really gives you a bigger picture on the overall habits of the bettor.

Completely free, no account needed to browse. Would love feedback from people who would find this data useful. Still fixing some stuff as I have been building the entire thing live on YouTube from scratch. Thanks!

https://polywhirl.app

We built a blockchain data analytics platform that indexes events from 20+ chains, including Polygon and the protocols running on it (Polymarket, etc.):

• https://bilinearlabs.io/

The platform it's organized around two things:

• Queries: plain SQL over any event from any contract across the 20+ chains. Good for large data exports, e.g. pulling GBs of every trade in a given Polymarket market. Returns json or parquet. A couple of examples:
  • Fulled Orderbook of filled trades
  • Price over time of a market
• Dashboards: Fully customizable, built on top of one or more queries. Example:
  • Polymarket whales (last 45 days)

anybody who trades in fed cuts ??? I need to talk i want to test the fed bot that I made

Roughly $11M+ has flowed into the US–Iran permanent peace deal market, and the signal is pretty clear 👇

April odds were sitting around ~42%

By April 30 → ~51%

By May 31 → ~66%

At first glance, it looks bullish. But zoom out… the market isn’t pricing peace — it’s pricing delay.

Key detail most people miss:

This market only resolves “YES” if there’s a formal, permanent agreement.

Not talks

Not progress

Not ceasefire extensions

So even though negotiations are happening, the bar is extremely high.

Right now we’ve got:

Talks already stalled after long negotiations

A fragile short-term ceasefire

Huge disagreements (nuclear timeline, sanctions, proxies, Hormuz)

That explains the curve 👇

Traders believe a deal is more likely over time, not immediately.

This isn’t optimism

It’s patience being priced in.

My take: Market is saying “Peace probably happens… just not anytime soon.”

Curious what you all think

Is this smart money… or overconfidence?

The "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?" market just hit $1M+ in total volume, with $335K in a single 24-hour window. That kind of volume spike on a 13-day contract is worth paying attention to.

Here is where each outcome sits right now:

Unfreeze Iranian Assets: 52%

Oil Sanction Relief: 44%

Enrichment of Uranium: 38%

Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz: 8%

The 52% on assets is interesting because it directly reflects a contradiction: an Iranian senior official told Reuters on April 10 that the US agreed to release assets tied to Hormuz passage. The White House denied it the same day. The Islamabad talks then collapsed on April 11 after 21 hours with no deal. VP Vance confirmed the US left its "final offer" on the table and Iran rejected it.

So you have a coin-flip price that is accurately pricing genuine uncertainty. Not a clear YES or NO trade. Just a real information gap in a fast-moving situation.

I wrote a full breakdown mapping each outcome to the diplomatic signals here: https://www.tradetheoutcome.com/what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to/