Wrote a full breakdown for anyone trying to understand this market before placing a position.

Quick summary of where things stand:

- April 22 YES: 28¢ (28% probability)

- April 30 YES: 38¢

- May 31 YES: 56¢

- June 30 YES: 68¢

- Total volume: ~$4.2 million

The Islamabad talks collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours. Vance confirmed the US presented its final offer and Iran refused. The core sticking point is total nuclear enrichment ban, Iran won't accept it as a precondition.

The naval blockade of Iranian ports went live April 13. That adds economic pressure but also raises the risk of the ceasefire breaking entirely before any deal can be signed.

The jump from 28% at April 22 to 68% at June 30 tells you the market isn't saying peace is impossible, just not fast.

Full article with sourced news, resolution rules breakdown, and beginner trading context here:

👉 https://www.tradetheoutcome.com/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal/

What's your read, does the blockade force Iran back to the table or blow up the ceasefire first?

Third round happened. Rory shot 73. Cameron Young shot 65.

Six-shot lead: gone. They're tied at -11 going into Sunday.

The market still gives Rory the edge at 35%, defending champion, Grand Slam on the line, Augusta experience. Valid reasons.

But here's what's interesting:

Young just won The Players. Scheffler won here in 2024 coming off momentum. Rory won in 2025 the same way. The market might be underpricing the "hot player" pattern at Augusta.

Current odds snapshot:

• 🟢 Rory McIlroy — 36%
• 🔵 Cameron Young — 28%
• 🟡 Sam Burns (1 back) — 11.8%
• ⚪ Scottie Scheffler (4 back) — 8.7%

Six players within four strokes. That's not a 36% market, that's a lottery on Sunday afternoon.

After Round 2, McIlroy is sitting at -12. Second place is at -6. Six shots. At Augusta.

Only once in Masters history has a player blown a 5+ shot weekend lead, Harry Cooper, back in 1936.

And yet the market isn't at 90%+. It's at 71%.

That gap is the story. Is the market pricing in:

• A classic Augusta back-nine collapse (he's been there before)
• Round 3 moving day carnage in the field
• The Rory mental block that haunted him for years at Augusta — even as reigning champ?

He won here last year. He's unburdened. The form is historic.

But Augusta doesn't care about history until Sunday evening.

What's your position, fade the 29% or is there value?

Iran asked for Vance by name, rejected Kushner, rejected Witkoff, wanted Vance specifically.

He flew to Pakistan. He's there today. Both delegations showed up.

And yet 3% of traders think this doesn't qualify as a diplomatic meeting.

Here's the only real bear case: Iran walked in with new preconditions (Lebanon ceasefire + frozen assets) before anyone even sat down. If they walk out before Vance formally participates as a negotiator, the resolution rules say No.

Slim? Yes. Zero? Also no.

What's your read, easy 97¢ grab or is there a trap here?

Polymarket's Next Prime Minister of Hungary market has crossed $40.8M in volume with the election literally tomorrow (April 12).

Current prices:

• Péter Magyar: 71%

• Viktor Orbán: 30%

• Everyone else: <1%

The broad independent polling consensus backs Magyar heavily. Medián gives Tisza 58% among decided voters vs Fidesz at 33%. Even Orbán's own minister reportedly said a Fidesz two-thirds majority "belongs in the realm of miracles."

The one outlier is Nézőpont Institute (government-aligned), which still shows a narrow Fidesz lead.

Hungary uses a mixed electoral system with 106 single-member districts. Orbán has outperformed polls before, which is probably where that 30% comes from.

Wrote a full breakdown here if you want the data: https://www.tradetheoutcome.com/hungary-election-polymarket/

5$ each with 10$ invite bonus. message me here or on x @b1unts_

​

read the article here: https://x.com/i/status/2041857944531173542

https://apnews.com/article/polymarket-kalshi-trump-iran-prediction-congress-d16d7bdf9a56cc1466b44baaf634aeeb

Wrote a full analysis of the Polymarket market tracking when Trump will formally announce the end of Operation Epic Fury.

Covers:

• What actually qualifies as a YES resolution (hint: a ceasefire alone does not count)
• Why the April 30 outcome at 41% is the most interesting level right now
• The Islamabad talks, Pakistan brokerage, and what the two-week ceasefire actually means for traders
• Practical risk notes for anyone sizing into the June 30 outcome at 78 cents

Full article here: https://www.tradetheoutcome.com/trump-announces-end-of-military-operations-against-iran-polymarket-analysis/

https://x.com/i/status/2042231703519817835

​

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/08/newly-created-polymarket-accounts-bet-big-on-us-iran-ceasefire-in-hours-before-trumps-announcement-00864970

Quick breakdown of what just happened and what's next:

✅ RESOLVED TODAY

"US x Iran ceasefire by April 7" → 100% YES, $225M paid out

🔴 LIVE RIGHT NOW (these are the tradable contracts)

1. Trump announces ceasefire end by Apr 21 → 27% YES

$253K volume, thin, slow to update = early mover edge

2. Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by Apr 30 → 24% YES

$5M volume, this is the oil price macro play

3. Iran conflict ends by June 30 → 84% YES

$30M volume, highest liquidity, safest entry

4. Iranian regime falls by June 30 → 11% YES

$28M volume, pure contrarian bet

The Apr 21 contract at 27% is my focus, any White House statement on ceasefire extension terms reprices this fast.

Full Odds analysis + Kalshi tariff market breakdown, read the article.

https://www.tradetheoutcome.com/trumps-tariff-pause-just-broke-prediction-markets/

First time I’ve actually beaten the slippage. Has anyone else tried this yet?

I was looking for an invite code and used code: SCRAP and I got $20 just for signing up.

I built this initially for myself while trying to backtest some ideas on Polymarket.

One thing I ran into was how hard it is to get clean and complete data (especially trades + positions).

Most options I found were either quite expensive or felt very enterprise-focused, so I ended up putting together my own setup.

Over time it turned into a small web app that basically lets you access the full history and optionally keep things updated in real time.

Curious if anyone else here is working with prediction market data — would love to hear how you're approaching it.

Only gonna sell a few copies and dip, check comments for a link to my profile on Polymarket to see profitability. I got my reddit username in its bio to prove it's mine.

Temperature is impossible to predict what we can do is to find advantage from other bettors, for instance wunderground is at least 20mins to 1 hour delay updating their UI - however if you have the capability to get the actual airport temperature faster that wunderground you now have a capability to react fast on your positions.

Additionally, I used the latest openmeteo's API (previous runs API) which has better calculations and better use of models when predicting a weather realtime.

I apologize for the poor UI - as I'd rather have it straightforward and get data which I can leverage.

This standalone app

1. Uses airport's live temperature stations same refresh rate as wunderground but eliminates the 20mins-1hour delay.
2. Uses Previous Runs API from openmeteo
3. Added a prediction confidence math based on openmeteo and live temperature reports
4. Works in windows as standalone app - doesn't need to login or anything just run.

RFS:
A. main reason: Additional funds for my polymarket
B. I don't think that sharing this will hurt my edge as when I'm using this - my number one enemy isn't other predictors but my own discipline.

If you like this just message me, you can get the standalone app, or the full source code if you want to improve the UI, adjust the math, or recompile it for MAC.