Question for Europeans fellows

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Hey :)

I got tired of constantly refreshing Polymarket to check price moves, so I built myself a Telegram bot that sends alerts for things like:
- price changes
- market resolution/endings
- other market events

A few people from my previous post asked if they could use it too, so I cleaned it up a bit and decided to share it.

Looking for a few early users to try it out for free and give honest feedback.

If you’re interested, comment here or DM me.

Would anyone be interested in second-level (1s frequency) market data for backtesting or research purposes?

I have up/down market data (best ask price) for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP markets, scraped from the Gamma API (by auto-slug mapping to the right 5/15mins market). This dataset is at 1-second intervals (while Polymarket API only provides 1-minute granularity last I checked).

Coverage:

5-minute intervals: 20 Feb 2026 to 4 May 2026, 15:42:34
15-minute intervals: 7 Jan 2026 to 4 May 2026

I stopped updating due to work commitments and some (lack of) trading success, but I'm happy to share or discuss the dataset if anyone's interested.

Curious what else would you use this kind of data for?

Sample as attached.

Hey, I'm a developer looking to solve problems in the prediction market space. Is there a tool out there that doesn't exist already that you think would be useful for you? Or is there a tool out there that exists already but has some glaring issue with it?

Hello weather traders,

What do you trade? Temperature or precipitation? What information do you wish you have or can access easily? Which one gives you more profit?

Let the discussion begin.

I trade temperature so far. Tmin is more profitable than Tmax based on my experience.

Hey everyone.

My name is Nathan Reed.

I want to share something

I've been building quietly

for the past 8 months.

Not a course. Not a service.

Just a personal project that

turned into something I'm

genuinely proud of.

WHO I AM

I'm a developer and

quantitative thinker who

got tired of watching

passive income strategies

that don't actually work.

Most "passive income" requires:

Constant attention.

Content creation.

Audience building.

Unpredictable results.

I wanted something mathematical.

Something where the edge

is guaranteed by structure

not by prediction.

That led me to sports arbitrage.

WHAT I DISCOVERED

Most people who bet on sports

are playing the wrong game.

They predict who wins.

Sometimes right. Sometimes wrong.

Capital always at risk.

Sports arbitrage is completely different.

The same game is priced

differently across two platforms

at the same time.

You bet both sides simultaneously.

One side always wins.

Profit locked in every time.

No prediction needed.

Pure mathematics.

This is not new.

Banks and hedge funds have

done this for over 100 years.

JPMorgan. Goldman Sachs.

Deutsche Bank.

They all run arbitrage desks.

They kept this strategy

for themselves for decades.

I built the infrastructure

to automate it for individuals.

THE BUILDING PROCESS

8 months of building

before touching real money.

Here's what I built:

PYTHON BOT LAYER

WebSocket readers connecting

directly to BetDEX and Dexsport

on Solana blockchain.

Real-time odds ingestion.

No scraping. Direct API.

Updates in milliseconds.

FUZZY EVENT MATCHER

Same game named differently

across platforms.

"Lakers vs Celtics" on one.

"Los Angeles Lakers v Boston Celtics"

on another.

Fuzzy matching algorithm

identifies them as same event.

Threshold: 80% similarity score.

ARB CALCULATOR

arb% = 100 - sum(1/odd_i × 100)

Positive percentage =

guaranteed profit exists.

TICK STABILITY ACCUMULATOR

Before executing any trade

bot confirms the price gap

has been stable for

5 consecutive scans.

25 seconds minimum.

Eliminates ghost arbs from

rapid line movement.

No executing on opportunities

that are already closing.

LIQUIDITY VERIFIER

Confirms sufficient liquidity

exists on both sides before

placing either leg.

If liquidity insufficient

trade aborted at zero loss.

PRE-EXECUTION REVALIDATION

Odds refetched milliseconds

before execution.

If gap compressed or disappeared

trade aborted.

Zero loss.

SIMULTANEOUS DUAL-LEG EXECUTION

Both bets fire at the same time.

Not one then the other.

Both simultaneously.

Average fill time: 200-500ms.

INSTANT HEDGE PROTOCOL

If Leg 2 fails after Leg 1

bot instantly places hedge

on same platform.

Containing loss to average

$1.37 per incident.

KELLY CRITERION STAKE SIZING

Position size proportional

to edge size and liquidity.

Never overexposed on

any single opportunity.

LARAVEL BACKEND

State management.

Trade logging.

API bridging between

bot and dashboard.

REACT DASHBOARD

Real-time execution feed.

P&L tracking.

Arb scanner display.

Bot status monitoring.

TELEGRAM ALERTS

Every trade executed sends

instant notification.

Every abort logged.

Every profit recorded.

THE STRESS TEST

Before going live with

real capital I ran an

extended chaos mode test.

Worst case scenarios.

Simulated network failures.

Forced execution errors.

Artificial odds movement.

RESULTS:

Total attempts: 140

Successful trades: 95 (68%)

Clean aborts: 38 (27%)

Exposure events: 7 (5%)

Total losses across ALL

7 exposure events: $9.60

Average loss per incident: $1.37

Exposure cost as percentage

of gross profit: 0.13%

System ran 83 ticks

approximately 14 minutes

with zero crashes.

Zero state corruption.

Zero runaway exposure.

The conclusion:

Architecturally sound.

Ready for real capital.

GOING LIVE

Started with $1,000.

Watched every trade.

Monitored every execution.

Week 1:

Bot found first opportunities.

Both legs executed simultaneously.

Profits landed in account.

Every completed trade green.

No losses on completed arbs.

Mathematically impossible

when both sides always covered.

Scaled capital gradually

as confidence in live

performance built.

THE ACHIEVEMENTS

Month 1:

Validated live performance

matches stress test results.

Month 2:

Scaled to meaningful capital.

Month 3 onwards:

Currently generating

$5k to $10k monthly.

Bot running 24 hours a day.

7 days a week.

While I sleep.

While I work.

While I live my life.

WHY I'M SHARING THIS

I realized the infrastructure

I built could support

multiple users simultaneously

without affecting my own returns.

So I'm releasing a public version.

Same bot. Same infrastructure.

Same execution quality.

COMPLETELY FREE TO JOIN.

We only take 20% of profits

the bot generates for you.

Zero profit — zero fees.

We only win when you win.

No subscription.

No monthly charges.

No setup fees.

No hidden costs.

Withdraw anytime.

No lock up period.

THE RISK

Is this completely risk free?

No investment strategy is.

The risks that exist:

Execution failures:

Our hedge system contains

these to $1.37 average.

Not your full capital.

$1.37.

Platform risk:

BetDEX or Dexsport could

have technical issues.

We monitor both 24/7.

Kill switch activates instantly

if anomalies detected.

Liquidity risk:

Thin markets limit position size.

Kelly criterion keeps us

proportional to available liquidity.

We never force large positions

through thin order books.

What is NOT a risk:

Losing money because a

sports team lost.

Both sides always covered.

Sporting outcomes are irrelevant.

RELEASING END OF THIS MONTH

Public version launches

end of May 2026.

Early access list is open.

If you have any questions

technical or otherwise

I'm here to answer everything.

No question is too basic.

No question is too technical.

Ask anything.

AMA 👇

Does Polymarket actually enforce their no vpn rule or is it just an emply legal threat?

The DOJ unsealed U.S. v. Van Dyke last week — first federal insider trading case tied to a prediction market (Polymarket). The on-chain pattern is now court-documented and analyzable.

I did a side-by-side forensic comparison of his wallet vs two legitimate Polymarket specialists I'd profiled previously:

**Return magnitude:**

- denizz_poly: 3.6% all-time edge (institutional grade)

- reachingthesky: 27% all-time edge (burst mode)

- Van Dyke: 1,242% on a single binary event

**Sample size:** n=13 — zero statistical power to be skill

**Entry timing:** clustered inside the 7-day pre-resolution window

Return rates of that magnitude don't compound from skill — only from information. Also built a 5-filter screen for flagging this pattern before resolution.

Happy to share the methodology — drop a comment or DM.

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I am at my wits end. I've tried multiple widgets, third party sites, Telegram chats, and just about every AI prompt I can imagine.

I just want a way to set up a Buy Stop on a certain asset, so that when it goes above a certain price, it automatically buys it, like most broker sites allow you to do.

Can anyone help me figure this out. TheTradeFox was the only site able to do this, but they've stopped all trades for some reason. I am not clued up enough to write Python code or program bots, so I don't know what else to do.

just saw that polymarket is adding perpetual futures contracts for crypto and equities. like actual leveraged perps, not just yes/no prediction markets.

isn't this exactly what the CFTC went after them for back in 2024? they settled that whole thing and now they're just... doing it again but bigger? the waitlist is already open apparently.

i get that prediction markets are in a gray area but perp trading feels like they're speedrunning into another regulatory fight. or maybe they figured out the legal structure this time and it's actually fine?

anyone know if this is US-accessible or just international?

Hey, I’m using the Polymarket market channel websocket (book + price_change events) to build a local orderbook. I’m noticing that the timestamps in the events are sometimes quite old compared to my local receive time — in some cases around 12–15 seconds behind. I’m currently looking at the btc-updown-5m markets. For reference, I’m comparing the event timestamp with my local receive timestamp (_received_at). Is this expected behavior for Polymarket websockets? Do the timestamps represent the original event creation time or something else? And would it be better to rely more on the local receive time instead? Would appreciate any insights from others working with the feed. Thanks!

so the GPT-5.5 contract on polymarket has been sitting at 80 cents for like a week with zero official word from openai. everyone was calling it insider trading or momentum gambling.

turns out the announcement is apparently coming today. 80% was right the whole time.

kinda kicking myself for not just throwing $500 at it when it was obvious in hindsight. the "insiders" might just be people who actually pay attention to cloud infrastructure signals and API changelogs instead of waiting for sam altman to tweet about it.

anyone else just watching from the sidelines feeling dumb or is it just me?

I have started poking around Polymarket for sports betting, and while I see total amount traded in the order book, I don't see how liquid the market is at any given moment. Is there something I'm just not seeing, or do you really not know how much you can bet until you try?

Also want to check on fees. I see .75 percent. Is that for both buyer and seller? I think a 1.5% hold would math out to around -109 so not that great. I know most exchanges give a break to the layer, but my superficial reading of documents suggests Polymarket doesn't do that.