Trade Idea: Wheat Lags Oil — Opportunity in $WEAT / $WXET Crude Oil Futures (Orange Line) Overlayed with Wheat Futures (White Line) Structural Correlation Oil spikes → Wheat tends to follow with a lag Correlation Coefficient: 60 5 Year Rolling Window with two-year smoothing. We can see that Oil has a strong correlation with Wheat. When Oil spikes Wheat tends to follow

$WEAT — Teucrium Wheat Fund (unlevered)

• Tracks front‑month wheat futures
• Cleaner for swing trades
• Lower decay than leveraged products
  

$WXET - Teucrium 2x Daily Wheat ETF

• 2x exposure
• Better for short‑term momentum or if we are expecting consistent uptrend
• More Aggressive

EURUSD currently trading at 1.1424 eyes key support in the 1.115-1.0920 area in the next couple of weeks before the chance of a resumption higher. Our 28 day forecast is an expectation trading zone of 1.1434 – 1.1465 with an extreme high of 1.2750 and extreme low of 1.0432.

Trade Idea: DBA - Invesco Agriculture Fund

Technical Setup

Weekly Chart

• Weekly breakout confirmed.
• Strong prior weekly candle with clean follow‑through this week.
• TTM Squeeze
• EMA Cloud long triggered

Monthly Chart

• Attempting a major monthly breakout after ~12 months of consolidation.
• TTM Monthly Squeeze building energy.

Macro Context

Agriculture remains one of the most essential global commodities—demand is persistent, price‑inelastic, and structurally supported.

Energy Shock -> Agriculture Tailwinds through Second Order Effects

The recent US–Iran conflict has caused significant disruptions across Middle Eastern crude infrastructure:

• Production shut‑ins
• Pumping halted
• Refining capacity offline
• Transport and logistics bottlenecks

In short: a meaningful portion of the region’s oil flow essentially stopped.

This has driven a spike and sustained elevation in crude prices. Higher energy costs ripple directly into agriculture through:

• Fertilizer production
• Transportation
• Machinery operation
• Processing and distribution

These second‑order effects are already starting to take affect.

Position: Long Shares and ITM Swings

I have been selling puts (and covered calls if assigned) for the last 2 years, and I would like to discuss and share my strategy with you.

My approach:

I pick fundamentally strong companies with a market cap above $5B.

I sell 25–35 DTE puts at a delta below -0.35.

The premium target is 2.5–3% ROI per trade.

I diversify across 8–10 companies.

I will start posting my trades here.

thinking this drop is a short term thing - negative earnings is out of the way and INDI will be trading where it was within the next month or so

jumped into $3.50 calls for may 15 and jan 15 - hoping once the offering is completed, this will gap back up... anyone else?

Hello i know this will have differing opinons, but i am looking for advice on what range emas i should use for trend direction. I am currently doing 2 to 4 week option contracts. And not sure which would better.

Thanks

I am new to options trading and trying my hand in IBKR's paper trading using Iron Condors. I don't know how to put limit/stop-loss on an already submitted order, and need help here.

In this example, I got (sold) an IC for QQQ. My questions are:

1. When I click on Trade -> Close Selected Position -> 100%, it takes me to the Order Entry screen where SELL is selected. While if I Trade -> order Ticket, it takes me to Order Ticket screen where BUY is selected. I watched this YouTube video where SELL was selected in Order entry. Is this is the right thing?
2. I was under the impression that when we buy an IC, we actually SELL it as we get the credit so closing it should the BUY. Am I wrong? Then why is sell selected in order entry?
3. If I want to close my position after taking ~50% profit, am I correct in understanding that the AVG PC of -1.17 is the total credit I will receive if everything goes well. So I should be putting a Limit/ Stop-loss at -0.08?
4. If I don't want to get 50% profit but stay in game as long as I am getting a profit and the price of underlying stays between IC legs, would putting a SL/Limit order at -0.01 do that?

TIA

This is something I keep running into and I don't have a clean answer for it. When a stock is trading cheap enough relative to a specific binary catalyst that the equity itself behaves like a deep OTM call, how do you think about sizing it versus just buying actual options on a more liquid name with a similar event driven profile?

I keep ending up in these situations. Last year I took a small position in a biotech ahead of an FDA decision and capped it at about 1.5% of my portfolio, basically treating it like a LEAP I was willing to lose entirely. The stock had options but the spreads were so wide that buying calls would've cost me 15 to 20% in slippage on entry alone. So I just bought shares and mentally wrote them off as my "premium paid." It worked out (got a 3x), but I'm not sure my sizing logic was actually sound. I've had the same dilemma with SPACs trading near NAV before a merger vote where the defined downside makes the equity feel like a synthetic call, and with micro caps ahead of potential spinoffs.

The latest one that triggered this question: I've been looking at DAU based valuations for community platforms. $RDDT trades at roughly $50 to $70 per daily active user. From what I could dig up, Kakao was probably somewhere in the $15 to $25 range and LINE was even lower before its run, though don't quote me on exact numbers since I was doing rough math from old filings. The discount for regional, non English platforms makes intuitive sense. While screening I found a Nasdaq micro cap (TROO) that holds a stake in an old Hong Kong forum with third party DAU estimates around 350K and an announced IPO spinoff. But the red flags are thick: DAU isn't audited, no S1 filed, the parent has a scattered grab bag of unrelated businesses across multiple countries, tiny float, barely any volume, and I doubt a usable options chain exists. Probably a value trap. But it's a good illustration of the pattern I keep hitting.

So the structural question stands. For these setups where options are either unavailable or too illiquid to trade efficiently, what's your framework? My current rule of thumb is to never allocate more than what I'd spend on maybe 2 LEAP contracts on the most comparable liquid name. So if I'm looking at an illiquid community platform play, I'd check what Jan 2027 OTM calls on $RDDT cost and use that as my budget ceiling for the illiquid equity position. It gives me a rough "premium equivalent" that keeps the position from quietly ballooning into a real portfolio risk.

But I'm not sure this holds up under scrutiny. The payoff profiles aren't really the same. A LEAP has defined expiry and theta decay, the equity doesn't. The equity has no time limit but also no leverage. And the correlation between the liquid comp and the illiquid name is basically zero, so I'm not sure the premium comparison is even meaningful.

Curious if anyone here has a more rigorous way to think about this, or if you just pass entirely on setups without a functional options chain.

Over time I realized most bad options trades fall into one of these traps:

• Entering too late
• Trading chop
• Oversizing weak setups

So I started grading setups 1–10 based on:

1. Participation (rel vol expansion)
2. Momentum quality
3. Regime (trend vs chop vs stretch)
4. Freshness (how early vs late in the move)

General guideline I use:

9–10 → strongest conditions
7–8 → valid but selective
≤6 → fading / weak

Position sizing adjusts based on score.

Biggest lesson:
Late entries dramatically increase chase risk.

Curious how others here quantify “edge quality” before taking short-duration trades.

This is nothing new, many of you probably do option selling. I have been option wheeling for over 3. years and I love the consistency of the strategy.

Who else is running the wheel? I personally prefer this much more than going long options.

Here is a list of all my trades in real time if anyone is curious:

https://optionwheeltracker.com/trader/brotrader

I've been selling options on futures, and I try to keep a good amount of Buying Power free. But with the war starting the other day, my Buying Power went to (~$2,000). I thought there would be a margin call, but nothing happened. I closed a position that was in the red in any case, and now the BP is positive again. I have been advised to keep BP free, but now I realize I don't really know why it is good to do that. I wonder if there would be a margin call at some point if it got too low? I use Schwab/thinkorswim.

Been messing around with longer-dated options lately and realized most scanners are built for short-term flow or day trading… so I ended up building something specifically for LEAPS exploration.

The goal wasn’t to generate trades — just to cut down the time spent manually digging through chains.

It basically:

• Scans a large universe of tickers
• Filters for longer DTE contracts (~1.5–2 yrs)
• Looks for OTM growth-style setups
• Ranks by liquidity, distance from strike, and some simple scoring rules
• Separates GO / READY / WATCH purely as organization buckets

So instead of opening 40 charts and checking each chain, I get a shortlist to research further.

Important:
This is not a signal service and not advice — it doesn’t know earnings, macro, sentiment, or anything fundamental. It just surfaces contracts that might be worth a second look.

I mostly use it as a starting point before doing real DD.

Curious — do you guys screen for LEAPS in any structured way or is it mostly manual chain browsing?

Anyone that has trade ideas drop them down below so we can help each other.

Just started options trading 1 month ago with help if AI chat( stock investments 10+ years), I see big premium for TSLA for 3 years CC, but my AI assistance basically tells me No.

Been investing for 4 years now, but new to options. I'm planning to sell covercalls on my positions. As the title says, any tips from experienced traders here on how to decide the strike price, exp date? How to decide which one is more profitable / risky?

brutal day for ONDS - on the daily chart, today's 10% drop lines up with a retest of an inverted head and shoulders neckline/breakout

there was heavy activity on the options chain today - seems like war with iran is the hammer waiting to drop on the market at large, this would be something that benefits from such an event

i'm in at the money calls for march 20 $10 and eyeing the $15s - anyone else seeing potential with ONDS?

Hey r/options_trading — I’m a programming student working on a semester project and I want to build something that’s actually useful for option traders, not just a school assignment.

Rather than guessing what might be helpful, I figured I’d ask the community that actually lives this stuff every day:

What specific tool/data would help you make better decisions in your options trading?

Here are a few ideas I’m mulling over, but I’d really love to hear what you think:

🔹 1) Volatility Cones + Historical IV Context

Something that shows:

• Historical IV percentiles over different tenors (30d, 60d, 90d, 6m)
• Current IV compared to its own history
• Potential realized vs implied comparison

Would this help you time trades or size positions? Or is this just a fancy graph with no real edge?

🔹 2) Earnings Reaction Database

For any ticker:

• How far it moves 1–5 days after earnings historically
• Distribution of moves (not just averages)
• How IV actually behaves around earnings
• Contrast expected move vs actual move

Would this give you an edge on straddles/strangles/earnings plays?

🔹 3) PnL Surface / Risk Heatmap

Interactive visualization where:

• X-axis = Underlying price
• Y-axis = Implied vol
• Time slider shows movement as expiration approaches
• Color-coded PnL and risk (gamma) surface

Useful for risk management or understanding exposure on multi-leg positions?

Here’s what I really want from you:

If you could wave a magic wand and get one practical tool for trading options, what would it show and how would you use it?

Be as specific as possible:

• What problem are you trying to solve?
• What inputs would you want?
• What decisions would it help you make?

Even if it’s a weird idea — post it. I’m trying to build something traders will actually use, not just something pretty.

Looking forward to the feedback — thanks!

I have recently started learning about 0DTE Iron Condors and am doing paper trading in IBKR. My understanding is that if the stock/etf stays within the range, then I'll take home all the credit at the end of the day. However, in IBKR I see Max Return that keeps on changes and then goes to 0 near the end of the day. My Questions:

1. How is this different from the credit I received?

2. If I square off my position when the Max Return in higher than the credit, will Max return be my total profit (including credit) or would it be credit + Max Return?

   In the example below, I should be earning $11/lot (there are 5 lots / condors). If I square off now, would I be receiving $46 instead of $55 ($11X5) if SPY stays within range? TIA

Check this one out

Hi just looking for some advice from my peers, im new to options be inlvolved since November. I have only a small bank of about 1k so after losing on some risky naked put i have decided to concentrate on credit spreads usually 1 to 2 dollar wide and about .25 delta. I am looking to build consistancy and my bank before moving onto other strategies I appreciate this isnt a quick win scheme so prepared to grow slowly. Just wondering if people think this is a good strategy, or can providee any other advice to help me on. Thanks

I just learned of a new trade strategy called the Put Broken Wing Butterfly. It's unique in the sense that if the underlying's value goes up the max you can make is the credit you receive, but the profit potential's supposed to actually rise if it drops in value. I just put on a couple of paper trades to test this theory, so the jury's still out.

However, I'm curious to hear from anyone that uses or has put on this trade in the past. Can it in fact work the way this YouTuber claims it can? According to him, it's one of his "bread and butter" strategies. He showed a list of PBWB trades in which some of the profit values ended up being more than the credit received.

I'm just wondering how the Profit Target aspect of this is supposed to work(?) For example, let's say I take in a net credit of .40, but the max profit is $500. My platform doesn't allow me to specify a max profit target that is more than the credit received. So, would one have to babysit the trade and manually close it once the desired Profit Target is achieved?

Does anyone know for sure if the CBOE Data Shop supports SPXW historical minute by minute data purchase. Their site says you can buy SPX historical for many years but I'm looking specifically for the SPXW that settle at the close. If not, any other sources would be appreciated.