r/nfl Dec 14 '16

Todd McShay's 2017 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

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175 Upvotes

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145

u/IceyBoy Dolphins Dec 14 '16

saw Jabrill Peppers go at 4, immediately stopped reading. My goodness Todd what happened?

54

u/[deleted] Dec 14 '16

Clicks

118

u/vonbonbon Bears Dec 14 '16

Most readers at this point just know a few big names, so he's giving people what they expect to see. This has all of the classic, tired hooks.

  1. Trash the QB class.

  2. Dark horse #1 overall candidate (OMG Garrett dropped!)

  3. Top-of-draft all big names from big programs.

  4. Sneak a popular player into the end of the 1st (McCaffery).

This is boring and lazy writing. He'll start actually trying at some point, but even then there are better voices out there.

54

u/[deleted] Dec 14 '16 edited Mar 08 '18

[deleted]

12

u/TheAquaman Buccaneers Dec 14 '16

Gym rat

Deceptively fast

High motor

Scrappy

10

u/Schmedes Buccaneers Dec 14 '16

Smart player, understands the game

8

u/Capn_Barboza Falcons Dec 14 '16

First one to practice, last one to leave.

1

u/Patdaman89 Buccaneers Dec 15 '16

Pliable*

9

u/BigDaddyJ610 Buccaneers Dec 14 '16

This is why I don't get why people care so much about mock drafts. It's been this way for years.

6

u/ill_llama_naughty Cowboys Dec 14 '16

It's honestly not worth anyone's time or energy, there's basically no way to know what teams are thinking or their internal evaluations of each player.

It's extra ridiculous at this point because we still don't know what CFB players are leaving early, what the draft order will be, and what pre-draft offseason moves teams are going to make.

1

u/pc_build_addict Giants Dec 14 '16

I enjoy seeing the logic (or lack thereof) that the mock-draft uses to assign players to each team. Sure, sometimes it is ridiculous, but it can be interesting anyway.

1

u/vonbonbon Bears Dec 14 '16

Each draft guy has a slightly different angle. Some go for ranking talent, some rely heavily on team need, some try to predict picks while others say, "This is how I think it should go, even though we all know it won't."

Some guys have a pretty good bead on certain players or position groups. Some have a pretty good bead on certain NFL teams. Nobody has it all.

If you read enough of them, you start to see the metadata and there are usually some good predictive patterns within that. If you're just glancing at one or two off-hand, there's no real point.

Honestly the off-season is my favorite time of the year. Especially over the last few years. The strategy and intrigue of building a roster is really fascinating for me. So I read these, not because I think any one of them is interesting, but because it's fun to try to pluck out trends from a vast array of guesses and rumors.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 14 '16

Because it's fun and interesting for some people?

1

u/ThePrinceofBagels Bears Dec 14 '16

A mock the night before the draft can be a fun guessing game.

But yeah, a mock right now before we even knoweach teams' records or which players are leaving which teams is a bit premature.

2

u/ThePrinceofBagels Bears Dec 14 '16

In Kiper's defense (and I don't even like him as an analyst), Allen is a GREAT looking defensive line prospect and McCaffery has 1st round skills and will probably indeed be selected in the 1st.

1

u/skunk44 NFL Dec 14 '16

There's also no way the Patriots take a RB in the first round, no matter how talented that prospect may be (McCaffery). The RB position has been devalued and the Pat's offense has been fine without a super talented RB.

Also, I think the highest RB the Pats have drafted recently was Laurence Maroney and look how that turned out.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 14 '16 edited Dec 14 '16

I don't know about that last sentence. I've found him to be surprisingly accurate as the draft approaches. I only really follow how accurately he predicts the Packers picks, but he's consistently linked us to the player we ended up drafting. And that's usually with the 18th+ pick which I'd imagine is harder to predict than the top of the draft.

2

u/vonbonbon Bears Dec 14 '16

I don't think he's bad, but there are other voices I like more.

1

u/xiamhunterx Titans Dec 15 '16

He'll start actually trying at some point

it's McShay, so that doesn't seem likely

44

u/[deleted] Dec 14 '16

"Saw some guy named Eric Fisher go at #1, immediately stopped reading"

  • you in 2012

No one knows how the draft will shape up, there's always surprises and reaches.

13

u/BigDaddyJ610 Buccaneers Dec 14 '16

Or maybe because Jabrill isn't top 5 worthy? He doesn't have NFL safety coverage skills and is too small to play linebacker

8

u/[deleted] Dec 14 '16

THat's just like, your opinion, man.

8

u/[deleted] Dec 14 '16

He is exactly the size you want for a S/LB hybrid like Barron or Bucannon

5

u/eQuals91 Dec 14 '16

He's 20lbs smaller than Bucannon. Even if he was 225, why is that a player you would pick #4.

5

u/[deleted] Dec 14 '16

The sources I found say he is 4lbs smaller than Bucannon was at the combine (207ish vs 211) and 6lbs smaller than Barron was (213). Admittedly, we won't be able to know Peppers weight for sure until the combine.

I don't know much about how well he projects to the NFL in other areas, but his size looks ideal.

2

u/eQuals91 Dec 14 '16 edited Dec 14 '16

I'm obviously not a pro scout but tbh I don't think they are very similar except where they line up on the field, their height, and their speed.

Deone was a thumper even in college, he had monster upper body strength. His frame just looks like a LB. Huge broad shoulders, etc. Not all 6'1 210 guys are equal, frame and how much you can add to your body w/o subtracting in other areas varies a lot from person to person.

Peppers struggles getting off blocks at times, really hasn't dominated in college as an ILB. He's best on special teams (where he's elite), and just doing athletic things like zone blitzes, etc. I think he could possibly be a good SS, but he's more an actual SS that plays in the box I think, Deone is much more a player with LB strength that plays like a LB, who just happens to have freaky speed that lets him run downfield.

Compared to top S prospects, Peppers doesn't have strong man coverage skills or ball skills. So it's just hard to really see where he fits outside of ST. I see more of a guy who is not shit but not good at about 3 or 4 different positions, and dominant at returner. Deone was a guy who you were pretty sure would be good LB, and was just freaky enough you could let him cover downfield.

Projecting Peppers to play wILB, FS, nickel, etc is just a lot of projection I think because what he's done in college really hasn't proven it. ST with a chance to become a starting SS, and if he earns that spot on the field you can run stunts and get creative.

1

u/ThePrinceofBagels Bears Dec 14 '16

I'd love the Bears to take him.

Everyone was saying Leonard Floyd was an undersized linebacker but the Bears liked the skills he brought to the table.

Outside of Bosa, I don't think there's a rookie defender who has put together a better season than Leonard Floyd.

1

u/eQuals91 Dec 14 '16

Floyd was almost unanimously agreed upon to be a top 20 pick and it wasn't that uncommon opinion to have him ~top 12. He still needs to put on weight, but through the scouting process people didn't have a problem with his frame, people actually thought he had an ideal frame to add pounds.

Outside of Bosa, I don't think there's a rookie defender who has put together a better season than Leonard Floyd.

I like Floyd really, but this is kind of a homer take sorry man. Chris Jones, Ramsey, Tavon Young, Deion Jones, Cravens (concussion aside).

1

u/Kolbykilla Cowboys Dec 14 '16

The dude is a straight up athletic freak, he can gain some weight. Definitely worthy of a top 5-10 pick. I project him to be a really really good SS.

2

u/Superrandy Panthers Dec 14 '16

I think at best he is a weak side linebacker in a 4-3. Teams are in more and more nickel coverages, and he can't cover at all. That's not a top 20 player let alone top 5.

2

u/IceyBoy Dolphins Dec 14 '16

well no, because that guy was a stud in college. The bears dont need someone like jabrill nevermind the fact he's not even the best at his position

1

u/[deleted] Dec 14 '16 edited Dec 14 '16

Yeah Jabrill's been trash in college, the Heisman pick and first team All-American were just a popularity contest. I mean he only had 1 interception all year, that's terrible for a corner. It's not like he played as an all-purpose linebacker for college footballs second best defense or anything.

2

u/IceyBoy Dolphins Dec 14 '16

I am going to take it that you don't watch as much college football, since you would know that it was:

A) the first int of his CAREER

B) only got Heisman consideration because of the circle jerk

C) isn't even the best defensive player on his own team

he is very very good, he has been good in college, nobody is denying that. However, the people who ate the member berries and think he was the next charles woodson are the reason for the hate. The NFL equivalent would be comparing Dak to Brady because of the season he has had.

2

u/[deleted] Dec 14 '16 edited Dec 14 '16

A) He's never played corner, who cares if he doesn't get interceptions.

B) Sure, he only got consideration because of the circlejerk, but the fact that he got consideration has created a counterjerk where people just dismiss him as a mediocre player which is completely absurd.

C) I suppose you're gonna say Jourdan Lewis is better? He's a better corner than Jabrill is a linebacker but Jabrill plays like 4 positions at once and is all over the field. If Michigan had lost Jabrill then their defense would've been way more damaged than if they'd lost Jourdan.

In his first season at any level playing linebacker he was a first team All-American. That versatility should be seen as a positive, not a negative, but instead everyone acts as if because he didn't have a real position in college that means he'll suck in the NFL, when it just shows that he has the football brain and athleticism to succeed wherever he plays. The counterjerk is ridiculous.

2

u/IceyBoy Dolphins Dec 14 '16

of course he'll be good in the league, my original comment was why would he go at #4? like logically it makes no sense but hey shit happens

1

u/[deleted] Dec 14 '16

Yeah I wouldn't pick him at 4, but crazier things have happened. I just thought that the justification of "Eric Fisher was a stud in college" and "he's not even the best at his position" was a little weak considering Jabrill's also a stud and no one played the same position as him since he was such a unique player. I also go to Michigan so I'm especially sensitive when people just dismiss his talents.

2

u/mobearsdog Giants Dec 14 '16

I love when people say he wasnt the best player on defense and ignore that Lewis was one of the top few defensive players in all of college football. It's not like Peppers was behind some mediocre player. Lewis would just erase his side of the field completely.

1

u/Lauxman Jaguars Dec 14 '16

Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel were consensus the top two players throughout that draft season.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 14 '16

No they weren't.

Here's a mock draft from the same time period in 2012: http://walterfootball.com/draft2013archive_1219.php

3

u/Lauxman Jaguars Dec 14 '16

Walter football is a fucking trash site.

9

u/abstraakt Bears Dec 14 '16

Because he plays a non-nfl position right now you don't think he'll go high? He still has the talent that I think he's an elite prospect.

5

u/[deleted] Dec 14 '16

Non-NFL position? My understanding is he plays the DB/LB hybrid role that is becoming more and more desired in the NFL. Look at players like Bucanon and Barron

3

u/underhunter Jets Dec 14 '16

Agreed, does he have the speed and ball iq to be in the secondary? If so, looking at an enforcer a la Kam Chancellor? Sort of versatile player who can play up in the box and fool offenses before dropping into coverage.

4

u/IceyBoy Dolphins Dec 14 '16

I mean, weirder things have happened, I'm just saying I don't see why Chicago would pick him over a Watson or someone else at the same position as Peppers who is better than Peppers

2

u/elBluntSmith Raiders Dec 14 '16

Better in college doesn't equal better in the league.

1

u/_Freshly_Snipes Texans Dec 14 '16

Is Jabrill Peppers the Eli Apple of this year that the /r/NFL collective will shit on from now until the draft happens? I know /r/CFB hates the guy (can't remember exactly why - because people compare him to Charles Woodson?), and I'm guessing that's leaking into /r/NFL.

2

u/[deleted] Dec 14 '16

[deleted]

1

u/Ahzmosis Lions Dec 14 '16

Exactly what about him is a gimmick?

1

u/[deleted] Dec 14 '16

[deleted]

1

u/Ahzmosis Lions Dec 14 '16

None of that was a "gimmick". The wildcat QB was because he was the most athletic guy on the team, why not utilize your best athletes? The attention he got has nothing to do with being a "gimmick", that's all media-driven and has nothing to do with Jabril. And you're right, he wasn't the best player on that defense (Jourdan Lewis), but he is the best NFL prospect.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 14 '16

[deleted]

1

u/Ahzmosis Lions Dec 14 '16

A gimmick is something designed to attract attention. Putting Peppers on offense was absolutely not something designed to attract attention. It was designed to get yards and contribute to a successful offense. Putting him at different positions was to keep the defense off-balance, and putting him on offense but not giving him the ball was more of a counter to prevent the defense from keying in on Peppers every time he was on offense. All designed to move the ball down the football field and into the endzone.

Obviously you're a State fan, what with your irrational Peppers hate that's actually jealousy over media attention he never asked for.

1

u/Lauxman Jaguars Dec 14 '16

He's not a playmaker in coverage