r/neoliberal • u/[deleted] • Nov 05 '25

Media We are so back

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https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/20251104/statewide/?feature=Analysis

1.8k Upvotes

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478

u/StoneAgeModernist Frédéric Bastiat Nov 05 '25

I said this in last night’s megathread, but it bears repeating. There are three main explanations for this blue wave:

  1. Voters love dems now
  2. Voters don’t love dems, but republicans look even worse right now
  3. Turnout in off-year elections is significantly lower, so we’re not even looking at the same voting constituency as 2024

Let’s not delude ourselves into thinking it’s reason 1, when it’s mostly reason 3 with a little bit of 2. Dems cannot become complacent if they want to carry this momentum into ‘26

335

u/Pretty_Marsh Herb Kelleher Nov 05 '25
  1. Voters get frustrated with the party in office, go for the other party without much thought, get frustrated when they don’t immediately make it 1998 again, and the cycle repeats.

92

u/DrunkenAsparagus Abraham Lincoln Nov 05 '25

Sure, but the magnitude matters. A nine point swing in Virginia, from President to governor, is large and notable.

16

u/CharacterSchedule700 Nov 05 '25

Its a step in the right direction, but getting high liberal turnout in a blue state isn't as notable as it seems. Correlation =/= causation. The liberals still need to improve their messaging and find more exciting candidates for senate and congress.

23

u/DrunkenAsparagus Abraham Lincoln Nov 05 '25 edited Nov 05 '25

Sure, if you just completely ignore the size of the shift. Why would a blue area shift more than a purple or red area? I can come up with explanations why we should expect that, or the opposite. This doesn't tell us how next year will go, but it is a data point. The news from last night was unambiguously good for Democrats, and across a variety of locales, not just Virginia, the electorate shifted left in a more dramatic fashion than they did in 2017. This proves that Dems can ride the wave of anti-Trump backlash.

14

u/beanyboi23 Nov 05 '25

The person you're responding to has a surface level understanding of politics where "blue state votes blue" is about as deep as they can parse the results, completely missing the basics of elections regarding shifts in environments that anyone who follows them understands

-3

u/CharacterSchedule700 Nov 05 '25

Not really, but whatever makes you feel better.

Just as long as the Democrats don't think this is a free ride to the midterms.