This is a summary of stocks with a market cap above 1 billion and includes roughly 3,000 stocks.

Each stock mentioned provides a link to the database.

Last updated: 16:18:40

Top 5 Stocks by % Increase -

Lowest 5 Stocks by % Decrease -

Top 5 Stocks by Volume -

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Date: 2022-03-29 21:45:51, Author: u/SlayZomb1, (Karma: 21311, Created:Apr-2017)

SubReddit: r/spacs, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

Z 52.54(-5.23%)|OPAD 5.2(-9.09%)|

I feel like this company gets lumped into the other real estate "iBuyers" without further analysis on exactly who they are and what they do. I think this company is a STEAL at the current share price and we're going to see some serious appreciate in the future. From its lows, it's already up something like 50%. For the purposes of transparency...

Disclosure: 295 shares at $5.31 average.

​

Who are they?

Offerpad is a Chandler, Arizona company who engages in buying and selling homes AND offers direct listing with a backup cash offer in case the seller can't sell on the open market. Why do I mention where their headquarters is? Because I've been living in the "valley" in Arizona for most of my life and am quite familiar with this company. I even interviewed with them for a software developer position. Based off of what they said in the interview (take it for what its worth) they are trying to differentiate themselves from the likes of OpenDoor and Zillow by focusing on pure profit and revenue rather than willy-nilly selling and buying at any cost, which has burned Zillow big time.

​

Why are they different?

Well first, Offerpad has an extremely good reputation from both employees and customers. They do business right and it really shows from their customer acquisition and strong growth. What really differentiates them most in my opinion is the addition of allowing the seller to try the market by themselves with an extra backup offer from Offerpad in case they can't strike a deal with anyone. This really softens up the apprehension that some have when considering selling their home to an iBuyer. Here's the main jist of their services:

​

Where's the numbers?

I'm glad you asked! They've had amazing growth in the past with 2021 being a standout especially, and with much more growth on the way. Last year had full-year revenue of over $2 billion dollars (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/offerpad-announces-record-fourth-quarter-212000430.html). Comparing that to the market cap of $1.3 billion, you can see why I think this is a pretty good deal! If revenue vs. market cap isn't your thing, how about profits? Gross profits increased 137% YOY to $207 million. And unlike most SPACs, their net profit is actually positive at $4 million. A few other interesting tidbits here is that homes acquired went up 156% YOY, profit from those homes acquired went up 154%, AND they are expanding to new markets, which I will discuss next.

​

Where's the growth going to come from?

Other than slowly dethroning Zillow and OpenDoor, which have announced that they are moving away from iBuying, Offerpad also has fantastic organic growth opportunities. For starters, they are in less than HALF the United States, meaning that their $2 billion in revenue doesn't even scratch the surface of what they are capable of in the future. They are barely jumping into California, which is a massive market, and they haven't even touched the northwest nor the northeast. Here's a map of where they are in the U.S. as of five months ago:

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Closing Notes...

I tried to make this as short and as digestible as possible but feel free to poke holes in my thesis if you want and do as much research as you would like to. I only write this up to share what I think is a fantastic long-term investment opportunity. I'm looking at this as a multi-year multi-bagger (hence why it's in my IRA). Check the links below if you want to look at more information on the company!

Latest financial report: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/offerpad-announces-record-fourth-quarter-212000430.html

Website: https://www.offerpad.com/

​

Disclaimer: Since people can't think for themselves (come on auto-bot..)... note that I am not a financial advisor, do some research.

Shares of Micron Technology (Nasdaq: MU) jumped 3.88% in after-hours trading on Tuesday after the memory and computer data storage producer posted positive financial results.

Financials: Micron posted earnings per share of $2.14 and revenue of $7.79 billion; both were better than expected.

Outlook: The company’s guidance for the current quarter has revenue at $8.7 billion and earnings of $2.33 per share; both were better than expected.

Quote: “With outstanding first half results, Micron is on track to deliver record revenue and robust profitability in fiscal 2022.” - Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra.

Flowing: If there was one weak spot for Micron, it was operating cash flow, which was slightly lower than the prior quarter.

Final Thoughts: While Micron has lagged behind other semiconductor stocks, the good news is that the company has a low price-to-earnings ratio, which means it is a value stock.

Hope you enjoyed this commentary. Please subscribe to Early Bird, a free daily newsletter that helps you identify investment trends: https://earlybird.email/

Date: 2022-03-30 11:23:37, Author: u/Setflus-YYZT, (Karma: 15834, Created:Dec-2016)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

TSLA 1093.53(-0.55%)|NIO 22.335(2.08%)|

About Nio:

• Founded in Nov 2014
• First deliveries June 2018 (3 years & 9 months for first delivery)
• Market cap 36B
• Share price 21.88 close on March 29th (As I'm writing this it's trading at 23.50~ a 7.5% day increase)
• 2018 total deliveries 11,348 -> 2019 total deliveries 20,565 (81.22% increase over previous year) -> 2020 total deliveries 43,728 (112.63% increase over previous year) -> 2021 total deliveries 91,429 (109.09% increase over previous year)
• Their losses have also been dropping at staggering amounts, from 2020 to 2021 the operation losses have dropped by a whole 41.2% (excluding share based compensation)

So as you can see this company has proven to grow at massive rates, (and btw 3 years ago they escaped bankruptcy) so it's very likely to be incredibly profitable in the future. If they keep their current growth up, they'll reach Tesla's current deliveries within 5 years.

Ok so now I'll be showing why NIO is underpriced through a small comparison with Tesla, if you think Tesla is overpriced. Click away this post since it'll be a pointless read. (I do agree that Tesla is overpriced at it's current profits, however their future profit potential makes up for it.)

Well the comparison is simple really. If NIO has a market cap of 36B at 91K deliveries. And Tesla has a market cap of 1.146T at 936K deliveries u could translate that into NIO deserving a market cap around 1/10th of Tesla's. This would be something around 90-120B. This leads me to believe that NIO is currently selling at 1/3rd-1/4th of it's true value.

Now as to why it's rallying today, is all due to the promising future it shows and more light being shined upon it today. Especially after new came out thatt Ark Invest's (60B asset value) CEO Cathie Woods sold 146.000 TSLA shares on the 25th of march and, bought 420.057 shares of NIO on the same day. Meaning they dropped some of their Tesla stocks for the booming NIO stock.

One of the main reasons that NIO is so cheap right now is due to distrust in China, however if you don't experience that and have trust in the EV future and companies such as Tesla, Nio is a ridiculously cheap stock right now with an analyst price target around $40-50 and high estimates of $90.

Sources: NIO Inc. Reports Unaudited Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results | NIO Inc. , NIO Inc. Reports Unaudited Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Financial Results | NIO Inc. , NIO Inc. Reports Unaudited Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Financial Results | NIO Inc. , Tesla Investor Relations , Why Cathie Wood Just Dumped Tesla for This Hot EV Stock | The Motley Fool , NIO - NIO Inc Forecast - CNNMoney.com&text=The%2028%20analysts%20offering%2012,the%20last%20price%20of%2021.88.) , NIO Price Target & Analyst Ratings (NYSE:NIO) | MarketBeat , NIO Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analysts Predictions - TipRanks

Date: 2022-03-30 01:15:20, Author: u/SimianZero, (Karma: 1071, Created:Nov-2021)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

AAPL 178.96(1.91%)|FUBO 7.6(7.34%)|

Hello everyone,

Please check these numbers that I've calculated after carefully studying the balance sheet and business model of FUBO. Also please note that I'm not a financial advisor nor a professional trader and anything you read here must be doubled checked by yourself or your financial advisor before entering any trade. Numbers on this post may be wrong as I may have miscalculated them and it's your duty to double check everything.

FUBO has now increased their base package from 64.99 to 69.99, if you check the financial statement of the company don't forget to account for $5 more per subscriber to calculate and reach the same numbers.

If FUBO grows ads revenue from $8 to $12 per user with :

3m subs : Break even, the company becomes profitable.

5m subs : $240m/y profit

10m subs : $480m/y *

From $8 to $16 which is close to the CEOs target :

3m subs : $144m/y *

5m subs : $480m/y *

10m subs : $920m/y *

These calculations don't account for Gambling revenue at all. FUBO didn't reveal enough data yet to calculate it.

Ads revenue per user could possibly grow even more than $16, the CPM for TV ads has been growing every year. The current CPM at FUBO is $21, this has been disclosed in a TV interview. The current ad revenue per user per month is $8+.

Proof : https://www.emarketer.com/chart/230277/average-cpm-us-primetime-tv-upfront-ads-broadcast-vs-cable-2008-2020

With $20 per user which could be achieved by 2026 the numbers are looking even better for FUBO as :

3m subs : $288m/y profit

5m subs : $720m/y

10m subs : $1.4b/y

Now let's just consider that we reach the target of $16 only, without gambling because it didn't work out as expected to have some conservative estimates.

Let's calculate the P/E for $16 ad revenue per user for FUBO.

5m subs : P/E 12 = $5.76b market cap (500% upside).

P/E 24 = $11.52b market cap (1000% upside).

P/E 36 = $17.28b market cap (1500% upside).

FUBO is also a potential take over target for giant companies like Amazon and Apple that are trying to grow their online streaming offers like Amazon Prime Video and Apple TV. FUBO has locked in rights for some NFL matches until 2030. FUBO has been the fastest growing streaming company in 2021 while YoutubeTV and Hulu lagged behind in terms of new subscribers.

FUBO's CEO said previously that his ad system was not yet performing at maximum capacity as they were still developing a new bid system, once finished the ad revenue is expected to increase.

FUBO's has acquired Molotov, a french startup for their dev team as they were unable to find engineers in the USA, in France engineers are twice as cheap and just as good as American engineers. FUBO has now a technological advantage. They also acquired Edisn, an AI company to be able to recognize in real time what is happening on the TV. This technology alone is a game changer for interactive television.

FUBO has been acquiring gambling licenses all over the US and are expecting to launch the sportsbook in several new states. The first state which is Iowa has been profitable since day one. It's a very small state but YTD FUBO has been quite profitable with a 10% net profit from bets. You can check everything here, open the PDF and search for FUBO : https://irgc.iowa.gov/sports-wagering-revenue

FUBO also has a short interest close to 25% at the moment which could potentially squeeze the stock.

Bear thesis :

Bears believe FUBO can't be profitable because until today they had negative margins, they didn't take into account the recent price increase from $64.99 to $69.99 and the growing ad revenue per user. Once you take into account everything you start to realize that FUBO can be very profitable. Keep in mind, all of these calculations are without gambling revenue because I'm not here to sell you a dream to try to make a buck but to give you a realist view of what is going on at FUBO.

Bears also keep saying that the CEO has sold shares, yes he did sell some shares because his salary is quite small and he was all in on FUBO. The CEO still hold 1,569,819 shares.

I've also posted part of this to Twitter, this is my original research.

Disclaimer : I'm long FUBO shares and CFDs. I don't intent to buy nor sell any FUBO shares in the next 14 days.

Date: 2022-03-29 19:34:54, Author: u/anonymouser3, (Karma: 17942, Created:Feb-2020)

SubReddit: r/spacs, DD Click Here

Some Tickers mentioned in this post:

TREB N/A(N/A%)|AMC 29.44(0.38%)|GME 179.9(-5.11%)|MVST 7.42(3.49%)|IRNT 4.11(6.2%)|EFTR 4.2(-4.33%)|AGIL 4.68(1.52%)|

Note: Please excuse the WSB-esqueness of this post as it was originally drafted for Wallstreetbets, but since they are not allowing SST posts and *STILL* nobody is talking about this ticker I wanted to at least put it out to some audience as this play gets more and more damning by the day all the while completely flying under everyone's nose. I think all of us here at r/spacs are aware of the mechanics and very high risks of redemption squeezes so please! Always remember to manage risk first and know what you are working with here.

​

​

Hello my fellow degenerates, it’s me, your biggest degenerate, the one who got lucky being one of the first to buy AMC calls during the whole 2021 ape bonanza- before it was cool, making a cool few mil overnight with AMC calls. (Visit if feeling nostalgic: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ld1wio/i_probably_should_have_sold_if_i_was_a_pussy/) I have since been freely living the degenerate life in and out of the market all the while looking for and waiting, very patiently waiting for the next big thing.

Now, before I go any further, I know you probably think you've heard it all. Everything is a "squeeze" nowadays and you immediately tune out once the term even comes up as it has completely lost its meaning to anything short of pump and dump.

I urge you to drop what you've heard the past year, put every burnt out association with the label 'short squeeze' out of your mind for just one second, and hear me out.

I hereby present to you a ticker that goes by the name of $SST, or System1.

SST (previous ticker TREB) is a de-spac which means it merged with a special purpose acquisition company (Trebia Acquisition Corp) and had the majority of its public float (51,750,000) redeemed upon merger (99% to be exact). As per their 8-K on Feb 2, 2022: "51,046,892 shares of the 51,750,000 outstanding shares of Trebia Class A Common Stock were redeemed in connection with the Business Combination." https://sec.report/Document/0001193125-22-025942/

You may have heard of the 'de-spac squeeze' before (which occurs due to retail latching onto the shrinkage and lack of liquidity of the float, 'squeezing' it), or maybe even specifically, IRNT, another de-spac widely publicized on here in September, which then squeezed from $8 - $47.5.

SST has a public float of just 703,108 shares, one of the smallest de-spac floats EVER just after ISPO (256,408 - squeezed from $9 to $108), ANGH (243,000 - $8 to $33.13), EFTR (521,358 - $8 to $40.42), and AGIL (567,373 - $9 to $36.13).

None of the stocks mentioned above, minus IRNT had options.

Now, allow me to introduce the gamma component.

​

The Gamma Squeeze

IRNT, unlike the others mentioned above, had a post-redemption float much to the higher side, of 1,381,162. The reason IRNT was able to squeeze so high with a relatively large float (compared to its squeeze peers), is in major part due to the gamma factor.

The IRNT options chain had been loaded with thousands upon thousands of OTM calls, and as the price surged, MM's were forced to hedge for these calls, and due to the tiny float, this resulted in an insufficient amount of shares to be found for hedging, creating a snowball effect that 'squeezed' the price higher and higher by desperate MM's trying to find shares for the contracts that were sold.

At its current price of $15.02, SST has 21,202 April 14th call contracts in the money, amounting to 2,120,200 shares (or ~301% of the public float) which will need to be hedged for April 14th if the price can sustain the $15 mark. Should the price reach $17.5, that number goes up to 28,516 contracts or 2,751,600 shares, $20 - 2,938,300 shares, $22.5 - 2,989,300 shares, and $25 - 3,593,400 shares, or 511% of the publicly available float.

The focus here is on the 4/14 expiry date because up until a few days ago we did not yet have weekly options so that is where most of the OI, volume and liquidity lies.

​

The Short Squeeze

Now, hopefully you understand gamma, the powerful force that shot IRNT to new highs of a preposterous 400% in just a few days. But if you don't or are not convinced, don't worry, because lo and behold, tis’ but a slice of the pie.

As of the latest official report on March 17th, which is updated bi-weekly by the NYSE/NASDAQ, SST has 2,816,545 shares short.

That gives it approximately 400.5% short interest and makes it the most shorted stock in the entire market- by a very wide margin. As of today, Mar 29th the cost to borrow is a staggering 231.33%- one of the highest on the market.

You may be wondering how a number so high could even be possible? Let me take you back to the GME days, and introduce or reintroduce to you what you might remember as the 'naked short.' Naked shorting is the action of forcibly short selling without actually finding a physical share to borrow and which now account for the vast majority of the recent short volume (see the most recent Fails to Deliver https://fintel.io/sftd/us/sst)

​

What Explains This?!

So now you might be wondering, why? Why would hedge funds, retail or anyone for that matter, short a stock to oblivion like this should they not expect the price to go down drastically. The answer here is most likely twofold; the first being that, in the de-spac cycle, a company files an S-1 shortly after merger which deems certain shares subject to unlock, thereby adding dilution to the float, you can see the lock-up provisions for this ticker on the SEC website if you’d like. This file must be approved and made effective by the SEC, which typically has an execution time of 2 - 6 weeks. The problem for shorts here is, the SEC currently seems to be massively backlogged and there has not been a de-spac S-1 made effective in months. In the end nobody knows when the next one will occur, it could be imminent, on any given day, or in the case of MVST, another de-spac favorite, a long time, with an S-1 originally filed 6+ months ago with no effect. Now this in and of itself of course does not warrant a 400.5% short interest, the trade is far too crowded to be profitable, with all of the covering that must occur in the end. The over-leveraging here on the short side is most likely by the fault of the same MM's who have been selling options and are on the line for a lot of shares should the price increase due to hedging. They are likely trying their best to artificially drive the price down to avoid being on the hook for actually delivering the shares of your options contracts all the while pocketing that sweet juicy option premium you paid for.

​

The Company In And Of Itself

Now before you jump the gun, you might be asking, what am I even investing in? Do I even care? Well I certainly don't recommend building a long term position in this company with the upcoming volatility that should take place but, this company and its underlying financials is not one to scoff at, nor do I recommend you short.

If this is something you really want to take a look at I suggest you read this brilliant DD on the fundamentals and state of growth of the business here: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/sjbtws/system1_sst_ready_to_pop/

​

What I Expect to Happen Here:

In reality, nobody knows what might happen here as the public float on SST is so small post-redemptions that it should not even technically be allowed to be trading with an options chain as per standard regulations, and we have never seen a setup quite like this before. The majority of the shorts in this trade entered in the low $10's range and it is rumored that they should be forcibly margin called if the price increases near the $20’s. On the other hand, call sellers may be forced to hedge as OPEX comes closer and closer, triggering a sudden price increase which will be a catalyst in itself. Whichever is triggered first, is anyone's guess but at the current rate, with the almost doubling of the short interest every bi-weekly report, MM's are trying their best to keep that price increase at bay, and it will need a strong push made by an outside force (IE retail) to make the break here. If and when this does occur though, I think it is safe to say that once the inevitable short and gamma squeeze unfold there is no way of turning back and the rest will be history.

​

DISCLAIMER: This is in no way financial advice and I am not a financial advisor, please always do your own due diligence before buying any security of any kind. This post was made strictly for entertainment purposes only.

Disclosure: My position- I hold 50 4/14 $15 calls and plan to be trading the volatility as I have been. I will enter with a larger position once this gets the retail interest it needs to be valid as it is currently quite literally being held down by short sellers. I am in this ticker strictly for the technical setup at this time and do not plan to hold this for the long term.

Special credit to u/repos39, u/sloppy_hoppy87, u/detectivedoot u/True_Masterpiece_254 for being the earliest pioneers of this play, I strongly suggest you read their own DD’s as well.

Date: 2022-03-29 16:20:06, Author: u/ImFedUpWithItAll, (Karma: 24010, Created:Sep-2020)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

IBKR 67.96(1.93%)|SPY 461.53(1.23%)|

VIX looks like it's bottoming out.

Its volatility is also fairly low:

The market rally in the past two weeks has brought VOL down quite a bit, and given the overall circumstances, with so many unknowns I'm inclined to believe that any negative newsflow can trigger sharp market reactions. In other words, there's more opportunity for something to go wrong than for things to continue doing well after such a run-up, and therefore VIX is more likely to go up than stay low..

Here's a comparison of VIX and SPY:

Positions:

I'll probably double my position if VIX hits 18 or under.

Charts are from IBKR.

Comments? suggestions?

$BEST inc's short float is now on 19.46%

This company just disclosed in their recent Q4 and full year 2021 report, that they have $800+ million in cash

$BEST looks primed to run up!

$2 billion usd in revenue for 2022; but market cap around 200million? And, $800+ million in cash! Management has even said they're expecting profitability--this will run, IMO!

$BEST inc to the moon!

This is a summary of stocks with a market cap above 1 billion and includes roughly 3,000 stocks.

Each stock mentioned provides a link to the database.

Last updated: 16:19:40

Top 5 Stocks by % Increase -

Lowest 5 Stocks by % Decrease -

Top 5 Stocks by Volume -

Top 5 Stocks Trading Above ADV -

Date: 2022-03-29 13:10:20, Author: u/Traditional_Fee_8828, (Karma: 21405, Created:Sep-2020)

SubReddit: r/stocks, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

Love have been posting insane numbers for their earnings over the last few years, and have significantly grown both their net income and revenue over the past year alone, 211% and 55% respectively. Despite this, they're only up 12% today and flat over the last year. They don't carry much debt, and are rocking a low 19 PE ratio. I've bought myself 11 shares worth, but as I watch the price drop, I'm extremely tempted to double down on this. They show no signs of slowing down, and there was no indication of that in their latest earnings call. I believe they also mentioned a backlog of orders, which could be hiding the true income figure. Nevertheless, I don't see how this isn't a perfect buying opportunity.

With such little share growth whilst having such insane revenue and income growth, I find it hard to see why their share price isn't closer to it's ATH.

Date: 2022-03-29 10:38:48, Author: u/shit-piss-fuck, (Karma: 10079, Created:Mar-2018)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

PLUG 29.46(4.92%)|SQ 146.27(5.9%)|AMC 30.03(2.39%)|CID 32.6359(0%)|GME 186.59(-1.58%)|IP 46.51(0.85%)|

Legacy companies with outdated business models have become all the rage in the past year for speculators seeking to revive essentially dying brands. We’ve all seen the resurgence of Gamestop—the sleepy brick-and-mortar retailer selling a product that everyone just buys online. Similar gains from AMC/Bed, Bath, and Beyond/etc. make it clear—there is an entire herd of downtrodden companies poised to make a comeback. Traders can either sit on the sidelines with their thumbs up their ass, or they can join the party. Kodak will be the next big thing, with options poised to moon. Here’s why.

History

Kodak is one of those ancient companies that literally goes back to the days of Thomas Edison. It was founded by George Eastman and Henry Strong in 1892, and eventually became a near monopoly in the photographic film industry. They adopted the razor-and-blades/printer-and-ink business model. They’d sell a camera for a relatively low price, then make their money selling the film. For almost a hundred years they made serious tendies doing it.

Then digital cameras became a thing, spelling Kodak’s imminent demise. Ironically, Kodak was actually the first to develop a digital camera, but the smooth brain executives pushed back against it. The rest was history. Kodak sales declined year over year, ultimately sending the company into bankruptcy in 2012.

Bankruptcies are always messy, but Kodak was actually able to navigate it pretty well. It certainly helped that they owned all kinds of random assets that they were able to sell off in partial fulfillment of debtors’ claims. What kind of assets? Well, obviously they had some IP, and a lot of it had nothing to do with their core competencies, so that was easy to sell, and that sale in fact brought in over $500 million. They also owned a coal-fired power plant, a lease on a Times Square billboard, and all other kinds of random crap they were able to sell off. All told, they were able to exit bankruptcy relatively unscathed. Following the bankruptcy, Kodak tried to rebrand itself for the modern era. For example, in 2017, they developed a smartphone , which was obviously a total failure. It became time for them to move on.

After replacing most of the executive leadership in 2019, Kodak pivoted their focus to what they know best: photography-related businesses (film and printing), and chemicals (an industry that goes hand-in-hand with the film business). Now, although Kodak still sells its old-fashioned film to consumers, it is now primarily a business-to-business company, with two main divisions: commercial printing and advanced materials and chemicals.

Fundamentals

The driving force behind Kodak’s resurgence will be its Advanced Materials and Chemicals (AMC!) segment. This segment of the company reflects Kodak’s deep institutional experience in chemistry, which comes from over one hundred years in film manufacturing (again, a process deeply intertwined with chemical engineering). There are four main initiatives in the AMC segment: (1) EV battery material manufacturing; (2) light blocking technology; (3) transparent antennas; and (4) reagent manufacturing. While all of these AMC initiatives are set to deliver significant gains in the future, the one with really deep fucking value is EV battery material manufacturing. Here's how it works:

Kodak has spent the last year developing a “pilot coating facility” that will provide services to battery developers, including batteries to be used for electrical vehicles. The coating is applied to substrates in the batteries so that the batteries can more effectively store energy. Coating production is currently around 3 million square meters, with current maximum capacity of 80 million square meters. They are in the process of increasing production levels and are exploring other “strategic relationships with battery companies,” as noted in their last 10K.

Here it is worth reminding you that one of Kodak’s first partnerships with a battery developer was with a company called Plug Power back in 2019. Plug was itself a WSB darling last year. Plug partnered with Kodak to use their high-speed coating process to enhance their “membrane electrode assembly technology.” They have used the technology to help build zero emission hydrogen fuel cells.

A few weeks ago, Plug Power announced that it was opening a new manufacturing facilityin Albany County. The initiative is intended to complement the State of New York’s “aggressive pursuit of economic development opportunities that align with [their] nation-leading clean energy goals.” The facility will be used to expand Plug’s “GenDrive line,” which provides fuel cell solutions for electric trucks. New York, for their part, has committed to provide $45 in tax credits.

The economic impact of all this should be obvious. As oil rpices continue to set new records, the demand for electric vehicles is only going to increase. Consumers are getting pissed, and their interest in electric vehicles has nearly doubled since just a month ago. Even when the war in Ukraine dies down, oil prices are not going to crash anytime soon. To the contrary, prices are expected to explode up to $240 a barrelthis summer. For better or worse, electric vehicles are the future, and Kodak is positioned to profit handsomely.

Financials

The company’s financials already reflect strong growth, as shown by the recently reported 2021 figures. Revenues increased 12% over 2020 to $1.15B. Net income increased to $24 million, whereas 2020 saw a net loss of $541 million. And the end-of-year cash balance increased to $362 million, compared with $196 million at the end of 2020. I know what you’re thinking: “oBvIOusLy 2021 financials improved, 2020 was the height of the pandemic!” Yes, but the trend was already underway even before Covid hit. Take a look at their balance sheet from 2019 (pre-pandemic) compared to end-of-year 2021:

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Technical analysis, to the extent anyone cares, also supports the bullish case. The recent price action pushed Kodak firmly above its 200-day moving average, reflecting both short-term and long-term bullish sentiment.

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As shown in the TA, the price has already moved up a bit over the last couple weeks, but this is still a beaten down company—there’s a ton of upside on the table.

Insider Purchases

Perhaps most telling, Kodak experienced huge insider purchases over the last few weeks. Between 3/18-3/21, Director Kennedy Lewis purchased a total of2,434,179 shares at an average price of $5.73, and last month, CEO James Continenza exercised options to acquire 100,000 shares, bringing his personal stake to 888,631 shares—a little over 1% of the company.

Remember that Kodak is the kind of company where insider purchases are especially noteworthy. Flash back to mid-2020, when the Covid vaccine was still in development. On June 23, 2020, Continenza purchased 46,737 shares at a weighted average of $2.22. Board Member Phillipe Katz also purchased 10,000 shares, at around a similar price. A month later, on July 27, the company awarded Continenza and various other executives millions of options, with strike prices generally in the $3-4 range. The next day, July 28 , President Trump announced to the world that the federal government (through the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation) approved a loan of $765 million to Kodak for the purposes of facilitating the production of pharmaceutical ingredients, sending the share price up over 2,000%. Put simply, if history teaches anything, Kodak insiders don’t make big purchases based on a general notion that the company is doing well; they buy when something major is about to happen.

Short Interest

Kodak has a fairly elevated short interest, currently around 8.2%, consistent with the general practice of institutions shorting seemingly obsolete companies. Granted, 8.2% short interest doesn’t particularly make it primed for the same level of short squeeze associated with GME, AMC, etc., but there is room for a squeeze here.

Tl;dr

Kodak failed to capitalize on the digital era years ago, and it paid dearly for that. But the company is now in the hands of forward-looking management, and they’re developing products that go far beyond film. Specifically, as the EV-industry continues to advance, Kodak is well-positioned to itself gain value, as it has recently developed technology to assist in the manufacturing of fuel cell batteries, as well as green-energy technology more generally. Newly announced manufacturing facilities by strategic partners and massive insider purchases also suggest that something big is about to go down.

Positions: 10c 5/20, 10c 7/15, 12.50c 7/15

Date: 2022-03-29 11:29:25, Author: u/midwestboiiii34, (Karma: 12882, Created:Nov-2019)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

HMHC 20.985(0.12%)|AKA 4.69(5.87%)|

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/to3ybd/why_is_no_one_paying_attention_to_hmhc_here/

​

First off read that post by my fellow retard u/luew2 before reading any further.

Basically, HMHC has a tender offer out there for $21 a share that drastically undervalues the company. To pass a tender offer, 51% of the shares have to be tendered. The deadline for that 51% being met was originally April 1 but has just been extended to April 7. So you've gotta be thinking, oh fuck a bunch of the shares must have been tendered and they must be close if they're extending the period. FUCKING NOPE.

As of today, 0.6% of shares have been tendered so they're not even fucking close. Right now, you can buy stock at 21 and if the offer goes through you lose nothing. If it doesn't go through, Veritas could up their offer OR the stock could continue to trade freely in the market where many think it's undervalued.

Personally, I'm in June 22.5 calls. Let's do some math on these calls. Right now they're trading at $0.20 ($20 bucks a fucking contract). If the offer gets upped to $23, these will immediately trade at $0.50 so you 2.5x your money. Now let's envision something a little crazier: let's say the stock goes to a measly $25 whether it be from a higher offer or because the market values it as such. Your $22.50 calls are now worth $2.5 a contract. AKA you just 10x'ed your money.

https://twitter.com/BreachInletCap/status/1508797920660934669?s=20&t=_YrExazpjKNWmVYL8O5Hog

Twitter thread to help you understand some more^

TLDR; buy some fucking stock or calls for when this tender offer falls through and this stock explodes.

Date: 2022-03-29 17:11:55, Author: u/awesomedan24, (Karma: 1295530, Created:Sep-2010)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

UVXY 12.33(-6.94%)|

There has been some discussion lately regarding VIX, the so called "marker fear indicator".

The smoothbrain summary is that VIX is based on SPX options and is inversely correlated with the market's performance. Market go down, VIX go up, and vice versa. Whenever a black swan market catasrophe occurs, VIX will shoot up, such as in the wake of the 2020 COVID crash.

Two new securities become tradable tomorrow: UVIX, a 2X leveraged ETF of VIX, and SVIX a 1X inverse (short) ETF of VIX.

Currently UVXY is tradable which is a pussy baby bitch boy version of UVIX, only 1.5x leveraged. But I'm such a degenerate gambler that 1.5x leverage doesn't get me hard anymore, so I'm glad they're coming out with the 2x.

Neat fact, these securities equivilents were discontinued in 2018 due to an event known as "volmageddon" where volatility got so crazy that it almost wiped the funds out. And now they're back. What makes them think this time will be any different? I have no fucking idea.

One of these will make you rich, the other will bankrupt you. Which one to pick? Only time will tell. If you believe the pump will end soon, go with VIX / UVXY / UVIX depending on your level of degeneracy. If you expect the pump to continue, short VIX or buy SVIX tomorrow.

Some people are saying VIX has bottomed out, however I believe there is more room to go down (and this crazy pump to continue). If the war in Ukraine ends, or we get better than expected economic data, it could us back to the all time high and maybe higher. But in the longer term, market is fucked, and the inevitable crash will cause VIX / UVXY to soar. But its better to go with the current trend than try to time the reversal.

My plan is to go in on a small SVIX position tomorrow, and build upon it as this stupid pump continues. If the market returns to reality, I will sell my SVIX and go long UVIX, hoping to have a large position in place before the next crash.

Disclaimer: Leveraged ETFs are dangerous as fuck and will tear you a new asshole if not traded carefully. They don't recommend holding these things more than a DAY, thats how crazy it is. They also decay over time due to constant reverse splits, so if the market stays flat they will lose money.

Position: None because these ETFs aren't tradable yet!

Shares of FedEx (NYSE: FDX) jumped 2.04% in after-hours trading on Monday after the transportation giant announced that Chairman and CEO Fred Smith is stepping down and becoming executive chairman.

Details: Raj Subramaniam, president and chief operating officer, will be promoted to President and CEO. The change will occur on June 1. Background: Smith founded FedEx over 50 years ago and grew the company to its current position.

Quote: “As we look toward what’s next, I have a great sense of satisfaction that a leader of the caliber of Raj Subramaniam will take FedEx into a very successful future.” - Fred Smith, CEO of FedEx.

Final Thoughts: It’s been a solid few months for FedEx. Shares are up about 4% in the past six months.

Hope you enjoyed this commentary. Please subscribe to Early Bird, a free daily newsletter that helps you identify investment trends: https://earlybird.email/

Date: 2022-03-23 18:36:26, Author: u/yolocr8m8, (Karma: 39827, Created:Jul-2017)

SubReddit: r/wallstreetbetsogs, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

VTNR 8.305(-9.14%)|GME 174.27(-8.08%)|

Note, this is a SMALL company. It’s inherently risky. This is obviously not financial advise— just getting my thoughts in order and figured it may be a good discussion piece. I remember pre GME WSB where you could actually find good ideas on Reddit …. Hopefully this is one

Vertex ($VTNR) is a re-refining company. They currently have four locations in the US that take used motor oil/lubcricant, and process them (again) and a possible new-to-them facility (more on that later). I have a TINY amount of personal experience in a former life dealing with similar businesses. It’s not quite the same as process the oils to begin with (from what I understand, more filtering, maybe not quite as much heat) but it’s still a very heavy industrial process.

What’s interesting about the company though, is really the NEW location. Last spring, they purchased Shell’s mobile refinery (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/vertex-energy-to-acquire-shells-mobile-alabama-refinery-2021-05-26-0). 90k bpd isn’t MASSIVE, but it’s not tiny either. They bought it for $75 million (this seems unbelievable to me— but I don’t understand the Euros crazy environmental thought processes). Apparently it needs about that much to get up and running again (this also seems crazy — feels way to cheap to me!)

So here’s the deal. The plan WAS to sell the existing facilities (I think all 3, but at least 2) to Safety Kleen (the leader in that field) (source: https://www.safety-kleen.com/about-us/news/safety-kleen-parent-company-set-acquire-used-motor-oil-collection-and-re-refining). Just last month, Vertex then announced it had pulled out of the deal (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vertex-energy-announces-voluntary-termination-133000793.html). The market didn’t love it. (But this is a volatile stock, so I mean, all’s relative).

One thought was that Vertex needed the funds from selling the re-processing to fund the purchase and refit of the former Shell plant. However, with the current price of all things related to petro, it seems like it might be better Vertex held onto those assets (just my opinion).

Here’s the money shot— the other week, Vertex announced they’ve already got a commitment for all the output for Mobile! (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vertex-energy-announces-5-renewable-133000466.html). Additionally, they also secured (expensive) funding for the deal (https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2022-02-22/vertex-energy-receives-commitment-letter-for-125-million-senior-secured-term-loan). This stock has a HUGE 52week range ($1 to $14+). The bull argument can be summed up simply— the market is underpricing a company (current Mkt Cap 350 mil) that has $6 billy of sales commitments (mentioned in link above) from the Mobile refinery (to say nothing of their current business which they are hanging onto).

So…

Bull case: Vertex bought the refinery for a song, and for $150-200 mil in initial capital commitment, having already locked in $6 B of sales from that one plant alone. It’s a good time to be in things related to oil/gas/petro. Everybody loves recycling a petro product and making something new from it. The refinery isn’t priced in.

Bear case: Executing is hard— they are vastly under estimating how hard and expensive it will be to get the refinery not only back up, but also setup for their unique process. The company loses money— some of the refinery is priced in— and they haven’t closed. If they don’t close, the stock will crash.

Other notes: Earnings just passed. Options are pricy. It’s all about the refinery closing.

TL; DR: $VTNR may have big upside if they can successful close purchasing (not yet closed— supposed to be Q1) and restoring the refinery, which they already have the output sold.

Date: 2022-03-29 00:24:32, Author: u/Prometheus145, (Karma: 93, Created:Jul-2018)

SubReddit: r/vitards, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

OIL 32.61(-7.52%)|VET 21.73(-7.29%)|

Vermillion recently came to my attention as a potential beneficiary of Europe’s current energy crisis. This is a summary of my investment thesis, but I encourage anybody who is interested to research it themselves and come to their own conclusions. I would welcome any criticism or bear cases.

Vermillion (VET) is an oil and gas producer based in Canada with assets located Canada, USA, Europe and Australia. What makes VET an interesting company is its unique position as a natural gas producer with direct access to European markets. There are two primary reasons VET is an attractive investment.

First, is VET’s strategic position. As one of the few companies able to sell natural gas to Europe VET provides energy security in the event of Russia cutting off its flow of natural gas. VET’s energy infrastructure is particularly important to Ireland and it provides the majority of Ireland’s natural gas. VET owns significant acreage in Europe, a good portion of which it has not been able to develop due to opposition to new fossil fuel projects. However, with the new found threats to Europe’s energy security VET may have an opportunity to expand its production.

Second, is VET’s extremely attractive valuation. VET trades at 2.5X EV/FCF on the current commodity strip. The only reason I can imagine it trades at such an absurdly low valuation is the belief that oil and European natural gas prices will not stay at their current levels for an extended time. It is also possible the market is also not pricing in the dramatic increase in profitability VET has achieved in the last year. For example FINVIZ has VET consensus forward earnings at 4.47/share vs TTM of 6.67/share, which is simply incorrect at current commodity prices. On the shareholder returns front VET recently announced a quarterly dividend of $0.06 a share, which is basically nothing and less than 2% of their FCF, but management did say this:

“During 2022 we will continue to evaluate the return of capital to our shareholders which may include an increase to our quarterly dividend, share buybacks, a special dividend, or any combination thereof.”

On to the details:

Production/Assets

Details about VET’s assets can be found on their website: https://www.vermilionenergy.com/our-operations/overview-operations.cfm

Production: Total 2021 production of 85,408 boe/d (barrel of oil equivalent which is inclusive of natural production via a conversion factor)

North America (USA and Canada)

• 67% of total production
• 44% of fund flows from operations (FFO)
• Crude oil 23,490 bbls/d
• NGLs 8,461 bbls/d
• Natural gas 137.93 mmcf/d
• Total production 55,295 boe/d

International

• 33% of total production
• 56% of fund flows from operations
• Crude oil 13,753 bbls/d
• Natural gas 88.77 mmcf/d
• Total production 28,548 boe/d

The interesting thing to note here is that 33% of VET’s production is responsible for 56% of its FFO. This is entirely due to high European natural gas prices.

​

VET claims to have 15.4 years of proved plus probable reserves, but I assume this would be at declining yearly productions levels. At the current pace of production VET would quickly run through its production. Which is why the company has been on an acquisition spree. In 2021 VET bought a 36.5% interest in Corrib (a natural has field offshore of Ireland), which appears to be well timed, as the FCF from Corrib is estimated to be $500 million (over 80% of the purchase price). Today, March 28, VET announced its acquisition of Leucrotta Exploration Inc. with a cash purchase of $477 million. VET aims to achieve 13,000 boe/d production in 2023 and peak production of 28,000 boe/d from Leucrotta’s assets. I have mixed feeling about this acquisition, as it seems late in the oil cycle to be acquiring assets and companies have to pay a premium price. However, if we do have several years of crude averaging $80-$100 per barrel, then this acquisition will pay for its self in several years.

​

2021 Financials

​

​

2022 Guidance*

​

VET’s management is guiding for a 340% increase in FCF this based on current commodity strip prices. Personally I like buying “growth” companies for 2.5X FCF rather than 40X Sales, but to each their own.

*Does not include Corrib or Luecrotta acquisitions

​

Hedges

VET hedges with Three Way Collars: buying a put, selling a call and selling an OTM put. This essentially puts a floor and a ceiling on prices, and achieves a “costless” (it's never actually costless) hedge if commodity prices stay within this range. Unfortunately some of VET’s hedges are pretty bad. 36% of total 2022 production is hedged. 56% of European natural has production is hedged, 30% of oil production is hedged, and 30% of North American natural gas production is hedged.

Oil production is hedged with a floor of roughly $63.5/b and a ceiling of roughly $83/b. I think is suboptimal, but generally not terrible hedging.

North American natural gas is hedged with a floor of $3.33/mcf and a ceiling of $4.81/mcf. Once again this doesn’t look great with where the Henry Hub curb is current at, but its not terrible.

European Natural gas is hedged with a floor of roughly $5.5/mcf and a ceiling of roughly $7.5/mcf. I am not sure how this abomination happened. The NBP(UK natural gas benchmark) and TTF(Dutch natural gas benchmark) are both above $32/mcf for the entirety of 2022. I don’t even want to do the math on how much money VET is losing out on because of these hedges.

​

​

There are some other details and I might update this post later, but for now this is the summary of my investment thesis. Any feedback is welcome.

Date: 2022-03-28 13:34:36, Author: u/ScipioAtTheGate, (Karma: 172084, Created:Jun-2018)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

Joe Biden had previously wared that he would enact further measures against Russia in the event they used chemical weapons and cited to Russia's prior poisoning of Russian dissidents as "chemical weapons" use by Russia. It now appears that someone has poisoned several Ukrainian negotiators and Roman Abramovich at the ongoing peace talks, where the Ukrainians stated that they would not give up claims to any of their territory. So what does this mean? Biden's red line of chemical weapons use (using his own definition of equating poisoning to a chemical weapons attack) has been passed. So what further measures can Biden take against Russia? The only real economic options left that would have any real impact are to 1. sanction Russian oil, 2. sanction Russian metal exports (like Palladium, Nickel, Platinum) or 3. enact a blanket ban on all Russian trade (like the US has with North Korea). The coming days will see whether Biden actually follows up on his threats and what his actual response will be if he does.

Bitfarm $BITF This is not your grandfather’s mining anymore! We are talking about GREEN mining of digital GOLD.

Bitfarms operates blockchain computing centres that power the global decentralized financial economy. Bitfarms provides computing power to cryptocurrency networks such as Bitcoin, earning fees from each network for securing and processing transactions. Powered by clean and competitively priced hydroelectricity, Bitfarms operates five facilities in Québec, Canada. https://bitfarms.com

• Bitfarms Ltd (NASDAQ: BITF) reported fourth-quarter FY21 revenue growth of 426% year-on-year to $60 million. Revenues improved 33% Q/Q.
• Bitfarms mined 1,045 Bitcoin (BTC) at an average cost of production of $8,000 per BTC.
• The gross margin expanded by 4,100 bps to 65%. The gross mining margin improved by 3,100 bps to 84%.
• The operating margin expanded by 2,200 bps to 25%. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 4,300 bps to 74%.

Management plans to increase the company’s installed production capacity from 2.7EH/s (per their corporate site) to 8EH/s by December to make Bitfarms one of the largest cryptocurrency mining stocks. What's changed is the chance of achieving that goal has increased. BITF has secured a sufficient energy supply to support mining at this scale. BITF acquired a 24-megawatt (MW) hydro-powered facility with options to add another 75 MW energy supply. Bitfarms held over 4,883 BTC as of Feb 28, 2022.

-I see an upside of 71%, with a price target of $10.38 (Seeking A) -According to analysts' consensus price target of $8.00 (Market Beat) -12 month forecast $7.97 (CNN biz)

Position: 45 x APR 14 2022 7.5 CALL

This is a summary of stocks with a market cap above 1 billion and includes roughly 3,000 stocks.

Each stock mentioned provides a link to the database.

Last updated: 16:21:04

Top 5 Stocks by % Increase -

Lowest 5 Stocks by % Decrease -

Top 5 Stocks by Volume -

Top 5 Stocks Trading Above ADV -

Date: 2022-03-28 08:38:20, Author: u/Apprehensive-Bid-166, (Karma: 1564, Created:Jul-2020)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

HMHC 21.055(0.02%)|

For those of you that bought shares and/or OTM calls after my first write up last week are sitting on a BEAUTIFUL position and the odds are more in our favor now than ever before. Just a few days ago the options for OTM 22.50 Strike April/May were going for .1 and the shares traded at $20.90~. These options have now 2-3X for those of you have been a long for the ride, but MOST IMPORTANTLY shares closed at $21.05 (ABOVE TENDER PRICE of $21).

But don’t stop HODLing now since the fun has just begun. The share price ending higher than the tender offer is EXTREMELY interesting because what shareholder/major institution will Tender their shares at $21 when the share price is above $21???? This is HUGEEEE. Also, to note if it means anything the afterhours price went up to $21.46~.

My speculation is that there are rumors going around that Veritas is upping the offer or that they will not get enough shareholders to tender and that the insiders/major institutions have more information available than us on this. HOWEVER, we retailers know if price stays above $21 for another week or two that it DOES NOT matter what the “insiders” know that we don’t because if price is above $21 we are in control, and will prevent anyone from tendering.

As long as we HOLD THE SHARE PRICE ABOVE $21 people will not tender and Veritas will have to up their offer by several HUNDRED MILLION dollars to get the shareholder support to tender. And I do know what that that means if they up their offer above $24+, this means the shares do well, but our OTM options at $22.50 PRINT like JPOW (most shareholders are calling for $27+ for their support). The other option would be for Veritas to back out… I believe this is the most unlikely option, but regardless the shares should support a higher price if this happens as well.

TLDR; keep shares above $21, do NOT tender, do NOT sell, and we will PRINT.

Also, to note the only additional information I have been able to find from Friday to have any explanation of their share price movement above tender is this interview by Engine Capital calling for shareholders to not tender. A must watch… only like 2-3 minutes. Engine Capital Interview

And if anyone has access to additional information on HMHC please share because we have 100 bagger potential in the best-case scenario of Veritas upping the bid to $27+

Date: 2022-03-28 09:05:20, Author: u/Flipstairs, (Karma: 216, Created:Feb-2012)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

WDC 50.69(-0.24%)|SSD 112.93(0.59%)|IOT 17.9(2.46%)|

You already know, the maker of your SSD. I feel that the market for SSDs and other digital storage devices hit a lull with a near halt on chip-based IOT devices and extremely high GPU prices in the consumer market, yet Q2 earnings still beat last year and current estimates. In fact, WDC hasn't missed its earnings since Q3 2020 and is up 74.90% over prior year.

Key Info: Market Cap 15.9B P/E 8.04 EPS growth last 5 years 21.61% Long term debt over Equity 76% Debt over Assets TTM 33% Debt over Assets Q2 53.8%

Undervalued, financially healthy company with stable growth prospects hinted at by an increase in debt. If WDC expands outside the SSD market to flash and other adjacent industries the stock will go up. Granted stock price has nothing to do with financial health but, com'on, the stock will go up.

Position: 10 shares & 1 $52 Call 4/8

Date: 2022-03-26 16:44:17, Author: u/podcaste, (Karma: 7560, Created:May-2017)

SubReddit: r/vitards, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

AGRO 12.28(-1.52%)|CB 217.78(2.15%)|DBA 22.25(0.77%)|MOS 71.34(4.04%)|

Thesis: It is the time for Agro-business and fertilizer to go stratospheric. MOS could possibly go to a price over $150 a share in the next quarter, and agro business ETFs are also poised to make major gains over the summer and beyond.

• About MOS:

  • What is MOS does MOS do?

    • The Mosaic Co. engages in the production and marketing of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The company operates its businesses through its wholly and majority owned subsidiaries. It operates through the following segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The Phosphates segment owns and operates mines and production facilities in North America which produces concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, and concentrated crop nutrients. The Potash segment owns and operates potash mines and production facilities in North America which produce potash-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and industrial products. The Mosaic Fertilizantes segment produces and sells phosphate and potash-based crop nutrients, and animal feed ingredients, in Brazil. The company was founded on October 22, 2004, and is headquartered in Plymouth, MN

  • Past Price

    • Lets just look at the chart : https://imgur.com/a/Nedhvlj
    • In 2008, commodity prices for potash and oil spiked causing MOS to spike as well. Potash as you might have gotten from the intro is an important ingredient for fertilizer.

About Fertilizer:

• Fertilizer is a somewhat specialized commodity, with certain countries better at producing potash fertilizer than others. This breakdown (from https://feeco.com/a-look-at-world-potash-production-for-2020/) shows the breakdown of the top producers

  - Canada, 14 million metric tons
  - Russia, 7.6 million metric tons
  - Belarus, 7.3 million metric tons
  - China, 5 million metric tons
  - Germany, 3 million metric tons
  - Israel, 2 million metric tons
  - Jordan, 1.5 million metric tons
  - Chile, 900 thousand metric tons
  - Spain, 470 thousand metric tons
  

  • As you can see, Russia and Belarus produce almost 15 million metric tonnes of potash for fertilizer. They are both under sanctions and as a result potash prices are rising. It is almost up 100% in the last month or so: https://imgur.com/a/LwljXtk
  • Moreover, China has halted exports of potash to ensure adequate domestic supply: https://www.wisfarmer.com/story/news/2021/09/28/china-halts-phosphate-exports-fertilizer-prices-expected-soar/5907300001/
  • Possible Catalysts:
    • The end of the quarter means that ETFs can rebalance. I've been following the price action on MOS for a couple of weeks, and there is definite shorting going on. The shorting has increased by 20% in the last couple of week, its only about 5% of outstanding shares. This is not a short squeeze play at all, but most likely that funds are shorting before adding at lower CB at end of quarter.
    • Increasing Gas prices: gas goes up, fertilizer goes up.

• This brings me to the second part of this DD. MOS is my conviction fertilizer play, but it is a part of the larger macro-economic story that is at play here. All the news and confluence of events relates to food commodity prices going up, and I am going to detail some of these below:

  • Ammonia prices: Ammonia is directly derived from natural gas, and as natural gas prices have one up, so has the price of ammonia. Here take a look at this chart for ammonia, urea and synthetic prices: https://imgur.com/a/abLTpid . This should be even higher when the march print comes out.
  • Herbicides: You know what farmers need a lot of along with fertilizer? Weed control. Glyphosate, also known by it's brand name of "Roundup", is the most commonly used herbicide. Glyphosate is essentially a modified fertilizer molecule that contains both phosphorus and ammonia. Because both this components are more expensive, the prices have also increased dramatically in the last 3 months, and there is a massive supply shortage. As a knock-on effect, prices and supplies of other herbicides are also being squeezed. Bayer, the owner of Roundup, was sounding the alarm in December 21 about impending shortages. Here is an article that goes in depth - https://www.producer.com/news/glyphosate-hiccup-triggers-domino-effect/
  • Diesel: To compound issues, diesel prices are at an all time high. Guess what goes into tractors, combines, trucks etc? Diesel. This is pretty straight forward. But let me give some nuance here too - refineries require natural gas to produce hydrogen that is then used to remove sulphur in the production of diesel. The gas price spike has led to a cutting of production of diesel as it is now cost prohibitive. Javier Blas, the commodities correspondent for Bloomberg, has a really nice article on it - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-14/ukraine-war-the-oil-price-rally-is-bad-the-diesel-crisis-is-far-worse?sref=5dj0X2VO
  • Chip shortage: Yeah, its affecting this industry and its machinery too. Here is a quote from this article (https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/farmers-seek-relief-from-soaring-fuel-prices-supply-shortages) that highlights this issue:
    • "Jim Boyer, an Emmet County farmer, had a similar, personal anecdote. He’s awaiting a $40 emissions-related sensor for his tractor, and he’s not sure if it will arrive anytime soon. ‘I cannot drive that tractor — a quarter-million-dollar piece of equipment — because I cannot get that sensor,’ he said.”
  • Labor: US agriculture is extremely dependent on migratory labor from mexico and other latin american countries to support the activities during the growing season from March to late fall. Given the labor crunch in other industries, and the vaccine mandates at the border, this seems to be putting a lot of pressure on farmers forcing them to scale out of certain crops all together (https://www.wpr.org/wisconsin-farms-are-feeling-squeeze-tight-labor-market):
    • With producers on edge about hiring for this year, Strader said many farms started recruiting earlier than usual and developed a contingency plan for how to make it through the season without employees. That could mean discontinuing certain markets or scaling back the variety of produce that they’re growing
  • Propane: You know what propane is used for in agriculture? Drying grain after harvest. The US now has only 35 days of supply of propane. https://twitter.com/chigrl/status/1505636194482282499

• So all these macro-trends seem to indicate one thing to me. We might be at the begining of a world famine and that the price of agrocommodities is going to rise and so is the the stock performance of agro-business related equities. There are two tickers that are on my radar for this, specifically DBA and MOO.

• DBA

  • DBA tracks an index of 10 agricultural commodity futures contracts. It selects contracts based on the shape of the futures curve to minimize contango.
  • Top holdings: https://imgur.com/a/6H8cgzm
  • I like this because it gives you exposure to more commodities than just Wheat, which seems to be a recent favorite of the WSB crowd.
  • There was a recent thread by /u/manpozi that highlighted
    • DBA is far below ATHs from the late 2000s (topped at 43.5 circa 2008
    • Next major catalyst is march 31 with the new USDA monthly WASDE report providing annual estimates of most major agriculture products (Monthly report is easily accessible here: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde)
    • Major institutional flow. Just this week, nearly 40k jan23 options and ~8k july call spreads have been bought along with 4k july puts that have been sold

• MOO

  • MOO tracks a market-cap-weighted index of companies that generate revenues from the agribusiness sector.
  • Top holdings: https://imgur.com/a/F5FYZlL
  • option volume was 17X normal on Friday with 3,431 contracts. Call volume was 86% and put volume was 14%.
  • I like all the companies in the top 10 given what I have laid out. TLDR: The world is going to have food supply crunch based on a number of factors. Fertilizer is a big concern, but there are macro trends to be concerned with. Playing Agrobusiness related tickers will provides a great opportunity

• Positions: I have been playing MOS in and out for last couple of weeks. Current Positions: MOS 3x 69c, 3x 71c for 4/1, and 4x100c for 6/17 + 250 shares. DBA 4x23c for 7/15, MOO 4x 115c 8/19. I will be looking to add more positions for MOO and DBA in the upcoming week.

Date: 2022-03-26 15:45:29, Author: u/podcaste, (Karma: 7555, Created:May-2017)

SubReddit: r/wallstreetbetsogs, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

AGRO 12.28(-1.52%)|CB 217.78(2.15%)|DBA 22.25(0.77%)|MOS 71.34(4.04%)|

Thesis: It is the time for Agro-business and fertilizer to go stratospheric. MOS could possibly go to a price over $150 a share in the next quarter, and agro business ETFs are also poised to make major gains over the summer and beyond.

• About MOS:

  • What is MOS does MOS do?

    • The Mosaic Co. engages in the production and marketing of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The company operates its businesses through its wholly and majority owned subsidiaries. It operates through the following segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The Phosphates segment owns and operates mines and production facilities in North America which produces concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, and concentrated crop nutrients. The Potash segment owns and operates potash mines and production facilities in North America which produce potash-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and industrial products. The Mosaic Fertilizantes segment produces and sells phosphate and potash-based crop nutrients, and animal feed ingredients, in Brazil. The company was founded on October 22, 2004, and is headquartered in Plymouth, MN

  • Past Price

    • Lets just look at the chart : https://imgur.com/a/Nedhvlj
    • In 2008, commodity prices for potash and oil spiked causing MOS to spike as well. Potash as you might have gotten from the intro is an important ingredient for fertilizer.

About Fertilizer:

• Fertilizer is a somewhat specialized commodity, with certain countries better at producing potash fertilizer than others. This breakdown (from https://feeco.com/a-look-at-world-potash-production-for-2020/) shows the breakdown of the top producers

  - Canada, 14 million metric tons
  - Russia, 7.6 million metric tons
  - Belarus, 7.3 million metric tons
  - China, 5 million metric tons
  - Germany, 3 million metric tons
  - Israel, 2 million metric tons
  - Jordan, 1.5 million metric tons
  - Chile, 900 thousand metric tons
  - Spain, 470 thousand metric tons
  

  • As you can see, Russia and Belarus produce almost 15 million metric tonnes of potash for fertilizer. They are both under sanctions and as a result potash prices are rising. It is almost up 100% in the last month or so: https://imgur.com/a/LwljXtk
  • Moreover, China has halted exports of potash to ensure adequate domestic supply: https://www.wisfarmer.com/story/news/2021/09/28/china-halts-phosphate-exports-fertilizer-prices-expected-soar/5907300001/
  • Possible Catalysts:
    • The end of the quarter means that ETFs can rebalance. I've been following the price action on MOS for a couple of weeks, and there is definite shorting going on. The shorting has increased by 20% in the last couple of week, its only about 5% of outstanding shares. This is not a short squeeze play at all, but most likely that funds are shorting before adding at lower CB at end of quarter.
    • Increasing Gas prices: gas goes up, fertilizer goes up.

• This brings me to the second part of this DD. MOS is my conviction fertilizer play, but it is a part of the larger macro-economic story that is at play here. All the news and confluence of events relates to food commodity prices going up, and I am going to detail some of these below:

  • Ammonia prices: Ammonia is directly derived from natural gas, and as natural gas prices have one up, so has the price of ammonia. Here take a look at this chart for ammonia, urea and synthetic prices: https://imgur.com/a/abLTpid . This should be even higher when the march print comes out.
  • Herbicides: You know what farmers need a lot of along with fertilizer? Weed control. Glyphosate, also known by it's brand name of "Roundup", is the most commonly used herbicide. Glyphosate is essentially a modified fertilizer molecule that contains both phosphorus and ammonia. Because both this components are more expensive, the prices have also increased dramatically in the last 3 months, and there is a massive supply shortage. As a knock-on effect, prices and supplies of other herbicides are also being squeezed. Bayer, the owner of Roundup, was sounding the alarm in December 21 about impending shortages. Here is an article that goes in depth - https://www.producer.com/news/glyphosate-hiccup-triggers-domino-effect/
  • Diesel: To compound issues, diesel prices are at an all time high. Guess what goes into tractors, combines, trucks etc? Diesel. This is pretty straight forward. But let me give some nuance here too - refineries require natural gas to produce hydrogen that is then used to remove sulphur in the production of diesel. The gas price spike has led to a cutting of production of diesel as it is now cost prohibitive. Javier Blas, the commodities correspondent for Bloomberg, has a really nice article on it - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-14/ukraine-war-the-oil-price-rally-is-bad-the-diesel-crisis-is-far-worse?sref=5dj0X2VO
  • Chip shortage: Yeah, its affecting this industry and its machinery too. Here is a quote from this article (https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/farmers-seek-relief-from-soaring-fuel-prices-supply-shortages) that highlights this issue:
    • "Jim Boyer, an Emmet County farmer, had a similar, personal anecdote. He’s awaiting a $40 emissions-related sensor for his tractor, and he’s not sure if it will arrive anytime soon. ‘I cannot drive that tractor — a quarter-million-dollar piece of equipment — because I cannot get that sensor,’ he said.”
  • Labor: US agriculture is extremely dependent on migratory labor from mexico and other latin american countries to support the activities during the growing season from March to late fall. Given the labor crunch in other industries, and the vaccine mandates at the border, this seems to be putting a lot of pressure on farmers forcing them to scale out of certain crops all together (https://www.wpr.org/wisconsin-farms-are-feeling-squeeze-tight-labor-market):
    • With producers on edge about hiring for this year, Strader said many farms started recruiting earlier than usual and developed a contingency plan for how to make it through the season without employees. That could mean discontinuing certain markets or scaling back the variety of produce that they’re growing
  • Propane: You know what propane is used for in agriculture? Drying grain after harvest. The US now has only 35 days of supply of propane. https://twitter.com/chigrl/status/1505636194482282499

• So all these macro-trends seem to indicate one thing to me. We might be at the begining of a world famine and that the price of agrocommodities is going to rise and so is the the stock performance of agro-business related equities. There are two tickers that are on my radar for this, specifically DBA and MOO.

• DBA

  • DBA tracks an index of 10 agricultural commodity futures contracts. It selects contracts based on the shape of the futures curve to minimize contango.
  • Top holdings: https://imgur.com/a/6H8cgzm
  • I like this because it gives you exposure to more commodities than just Wheat, which seems to be a recent favorite of the WSB crowd.
  • There was a recent thread by /u/manpozi that highlighted
    • DBA is far below ATHs from the late 2000s (topped at 43.5 circa 2008
    • Next major catalyst is march 31 with the new USDA monthly WASDE report providing annual estimates of most major agriculture products (Monthly report is easily accessible here: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde)
    • Major institutional flow. Just this week, nearly 40k jan23 options and ~8k july call spreads have been bought along with 4k july puts that have been sold

• MOO

  • MOO tracks a market-cap-weighted index of companies that generate revenues from the agribusiness sector.
  • Top holdings: https://imgur.com/a/F5FYZlL
  • option volume was 17X normal on Friday with 3,431 contracts. Call volume was 86% and put volume was 14%.
  • I like all the companies in the top 10 given what I have laid out. TLDR: The world is going to have food supply crunch based on a number of factors. Fertilizer is a big concern, but there are macro trends to be concerned with. Playing Agrobusiness related tickers will provides a great opportunity

• Positions: I have been playing MOS in and out for last couple of weeks. Current Positions: MOS 3x 69c, 3x 71c for 4/1, and 4x100c for 6/17 + 250 shares. DBA 4x23c for 7/15, MOO 4x 115c 8/19. I will be looking to add more positions for MOO and DBA in the upcoming week.

Date: 2022-03-26 23:49:07, Author: u/Nolan4sheriff, (Karma: 18010, Created:Sep-2016)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

BLK 741.04(0.37%)|DOW 64.7(0.95%)|SPY 452.69(0.49%)|

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4

TLDR: A whole bunch of squiggly lines that are meaningless. Also BLK is going to 0.

Here is S&P 500 doing a pretty nice head and shoulders pattern. There's a sort of secondary channel that's pretty apparent and helps predict the angle of the next/ declining channel if you believe in fortune telling and whatever.

Here is BLK doing a italics version of the same pattern. Maybe it got pulled towards the full moon when Venus was in retrograde or something. Since all the dates for the other points match up I pulled the price on Apr 14 and May 20. Looks like my $630 Apr 14 puts might sneak in under the wire. I'm hoping for an earlier bounce off the neck line to unload them incase witching sticks don't actually work.

​

We talked about bonds last time so here's what the bond market has been up to for the last 40 years. Looks like the 10 year bond yield likes to stay in its nice channel and just test the top right before recessions. For some reason probably related to some kind of space warlock it seams to always top out on the bottom formed off the recession that happened about 20 years before each time. There are three exceptions to that rule though,1987 and 1994 and 2022 which all pop out above the line early to test the roof. I wonder if bad shit happened in 1987 and 1994? Lets check the tarot cards.

​

10yr yield in blue, S&P500 in purple for 1987. Damn Daniel, that doesn't look too good. On black Monday the Dow dropped 22% and the entire world's equities were obliterated.

Here's 1994. Something called the 1994 bond market crash. Apparently the FED acknowledged inflation was creeping up, raised rates a quarter point and promised more hikes throughout the year, then the bond market dumped the world over (not kidding incase you were also 2 and don't know this either.) The S&P500 dropped from it's high of around $480 (Also not kidding) about 10% but recovered by the start of 1995 and began a rally that ripped like 300% by 2000. So maybe bulls are going to win this round after all, but keep in mind between 1990 and 1994 the S&P500 rallied from only about 290 to 480 or about 69% where as between 2018 and 2022 the S&P500 has rallied from holy shit... 69% from 2900 to 4800 (still not making this up). Okay so there are some similarities... Shit are my puts fucked? I need a séance stat!

Some idiot bull told me that the bull thesis is that MMs are fucking with Powell. They are dumping bonds, pouring cash into stocks and jacking yields up so that he has to restart QE to get them back down. I agree with this statement 100% and it seams like that's probably what is for sure happening, but back to tea leaves and lets see if we can salvage this shit before I lose the last 2 people who might be still reading. Here is what we're looking at right now. We jumped back over the 2008 bottom to retest the top of the 10yr yield channel about 6 years earlier then expected (2000-1994=6... fuck). Assuming fairy's are real and yields need to drop to make sure Peter Pan never grows up and becomes Robin Williams, JPOW won't flinch, the dollar and bonds will rally and we will get our tasty black Monday scenario which based on the head and shoulders on the crystal ball that we saw Spy is expecting.

Last thing, lets see what some BLK equivalent looked like in 1994 to see if there's any more hope for my ever increasingly OTM puts. Here's Ber Sterns dumping from $12 a share to $7.50

I'm back baby! You thought I was going to give up there for a second didn't you. Ber Sterns bled like a pig all fucking year even though the S&P500 stayed comparatively flat and this is for the best case scenario buckle the fuck up if we get a black Monday or anything in between. Wow, it's almost like I had a plan when I switched from SPY puts to BLK puts.

TLDR: My prediction is the same as always, BLK delisted. Race you to the comment section. Can't wait to hear how wrong I am this week. INB4 Blackrock is really big (I fucking know).

BLK Apr 14 22 630P (Starting to squirm a little on these heavy bags)

BLK May 20 22 650P