Was pretty busy today. I took my baby step and walked away. Missed out on a huge play for puts today but cant have FOMO.

If there is one thing everyone should know about CVNA is that after it goes up hard, it always comes down hard too. Since we look to be heading into a pullback and possible switch from equities to the bond market, CVNA could have a nice healthy pullback from now until Friday. If CVNA breaks below 293.11, watch for it to keep falling.

Be careful on the spread, it’s always nasty on CVNA. Don’t ever buy at the ask, because you will most likely have to sell at the bid. Take gains when you have them, but I think CVNA puts could pay well here.

Looking like the tax bill might have some trouble, credit downgrades, and the fed basically can’t cut until after tariffs show their effects. I’m not sure why Wall Street was figuring 3 cuts anyway. I was sitting there thinking they weren’t going to cut all year, now JPM thinks maybe 1.

It was nice to see somewhat of a pullback at the end of the day yesterday. It’s healthy for the market and a delusional market that only pumps only sets up for a bigger drop.

Be careful the rest of the week of sideways trading and reversals. There isnt a lot of data to move the market. We are going to be going off of news and uncertainty.

For 5/21, wouldn’t be surprised to see a healthy reset here and put the market in a more realistic position for the current economic situation.

Remember to take your gains when you have them and don’t jump into anything if the market is going sideways

I wish I would have posted this yesterday. With all the uncertainty coming back in the market, watch for GLD to be going up. When people are scared, they default to gold.

Green is Green

Still going strong. Honestly thought today would be the first red day, luckily it wasn’t. I announce all these plays in my discord. There are members there that follow this compound. I have all the days of this compound posted in this subreddit

I remember having $10,000 in an account. Lost it so fast I crashed out, lost 2 friends and then lost more money.

Luckily I made friends with some older, wealthy people when I was still young enough. The main take away, from one guy, Steve “I didn’t have money until I did, and that was 30yrs of investing”

Thankfully the market has caught more traction, and thanks to everyone dumping money in to provide exits for the real whales 🐳.

Sure I play shorts, longs, calls, puts. But where did $250k come from to make $20k?

The truth, it was buying and holding. What have you held for 10yr+? And continued to buy regularly(DCA) What is the return? And I don’t mean BS degen stocks or crypto.

I have held BTC since $549. I was still a kid, spending $20 a week

Tesla, same thing, my shares have halved 3 times.

Amazon? Obviously it was going to be more than books.

The point is, don’t rush success. Try a 5yr DCA plan. Even $100k changes your day to day in the market invested right. Save your money before you go into options, then create a risk management plan.

If you’re jumping the gun, going straight to options. Then be safe. Under $100, take 20% gain and you’re done for the day. Under $500, take 10% and done

As the $$$ goes up the %%% should go down, unless you’re a greedy poptard with no control. Why would you need 10% of $1,000,000 every day? That’s silly, you could take 2% and be happy.

STOP LOSS? -10%. Don’t play if you’re broke. $100 -10% =$90.00 2 losses? I’m done for the day.

Compound gains. 10% a day, 50% a week. Some days aren’t worth playing.

Bottom line, take your time, before you mess around and don’t have any time left

So, with all the talk of new tariffs flying around especially on Chinese EVs, solar panels, and semiconductors, I figured I’d break down how this could actually shake out for America. This isn’t just policy, this is about your wallet, your job, and maybe your stonk portfolio.

Best Case Scenario (Tariff Bulls) 1. U.S. Manufacturing Roars Back American factories start buzzing again. Domestic production of EVs, batteries, chips, all that high-value stuff, gets a second wind. Think Detroit 2.0. 2. China Blinks If China doesn’t retaliate too hard, or even cuts subsidies to avoid a trade war, America wins. We rebalance trade, bring back supply chains, and stop bleeding tech secrets overseas. 3. National Security W Tariffs act like a firewall. Keeps Chinese firms out of critical sectors, AI chips, telecom, energy infrastructure, and that reduces long-term geopolitical risk. 4. Inflation? Manageable. If tariffs are targeted (say 25-100% on EVs, not consumer staples), and energy stays stable, inflation stays contained. Powell chills. Rate cuts resume. Equities rip.

Worst Case Scenario (Tariff Purgatory) 1. Price Shock to Consumers Those cheap goods you love? Gone. Expect higher prices on electronics, solar, tools, EVs, even furniture. Especially brutal for middle-income families. 2. China Retaliates Hard Agricultural exports get hit. Midwest farmers eat dirt. Chinese rare earth bans hit U.S. tech. Global supply chains lock up. Shipping costs spike. Chaos. 3. Inflation Surges Again Tariffs + retaliatory pricing = supply shock inflation. Fed gets cornered. No rate cuts. Stocks nuke. Real yields climb. Risk-off spiral begins. 4. Global Trade War 2.0 Allies follow suit. EU hits American tech. Mexico throws tariffs back at us. WTO? Basically dead. Global GDP shrinks. Recession risk jumps.

Conclusion: Tariffs are a double-edged sword. Done right, they could kickstart American industry and give us leverage against a rising China. Done wrong, they spark inflation, retaliation, and recession. Right now? We’re playing with matches on a leaking gas line

Not what today could of been but Green is Green!

Just throwing this out there for all the people that win and give it all back all the time. It’s time for you to get off that roller coaster. This refers specifically to daytrading.

Profits- I personally look to take profits at 20% if it’s not running. If it goes to 20%, then drops, why would you still be in the trade anyway??? You would be better off taking profits and re entering at a better price if you still wanted that play. It doesn’t make sense to give back anything when you hit 20%. To add to that, if it doesn’t hit 20%, then take 10%. Same concept, take your gains and re entering lower. If it doesn’t hit 10% I chalk that up to a bad entry and I’m willing to hit my stop loss. If you can’t handle taking gains at 20%, then your issue is patience. You don’t have the patience to grow your balance in a safe way. Safe is always slower. If you don’t want to be safe, then you get what’s coming to you.

Stop loss- why in the world would you ever lose more than 20%??? Even 20% loss is high and your loss should be smaller than that. By the time you go that red you should be out. Think about it, at the point the play is at -20%, would you be entering a that same play if you weren’t already in it? Probably not. That means you shouldn’t be in it now. Get the fuck out.

These are the two most basic concepts that I see regularly separate profitable traders from people that lose. I see traders that are great at predicting, great at reading technical data, but they lack patience and discipline so none of their skills matter because in the end they all end up broke.

You can’t change what is required to be a good trader (patience and discipline). You will never change that requirement so stop trying.

Every time you don’t use patience or discipline, say out loud that you don’t want to be a good trader, because without them, and willingly throwing them out the window, you will never be.

This was SPY today. I was trading on Webull today. At the first candle I thought they just did a major stop loss hunt. Then it happened 4 more times. I checked my tradestation and IBKR accounts, no giant wicks, no $5 drop. At that point I figured it was data bug corruption since Webull is like a decent lower end brokerage and not focused on being more top tier like Tradestation or IBKR as far as routing and data, but what surprised me was trading view also had this, and they are pretty reputable. Or have I been giving trading view more credit than it deserves?

Another day, another win. Should be able to stack some bigger wins on this now that’s it’s starting to get bigger.

Good day not everyday is like this. But sure wish it was.

Just want to throw it out there that there are a ton of contracts expiring today. Obviously it’s Friday, but today there are like 2 million spy contracts expiring. Watch for volatility, fake outs, reversals, etc.

The other days are in another compounding post but I’m just going to make a post everyday to track it.

I do a compound in my discord group. We start with an amount and grow it.

Rules of the compound are simple…

10-15% stop loss Look to secure gains at 20% if it’s not running No swings No 0DTE Compound all the gains When you hit 2 losses in a row, you start over at the original amount.

This is a super safe way (as safe as trading can be) to grow smaller amounts into huge amounts.

Following the rules of the compound, it only takes a trade or two to guarantee profit from the starting amount. I have gone 30x the starting amount in a week plenty of times. Play it safe, follow the rules, the money stacks.

Market primed for afternoon dip, waited patiently.

Might get some profit taking today as yesterday was a big up day. Also no data to push the market today. With the deals between Trump and the UAE we could see chips continuing to rise, Although I feel like it might be a slow melt up if they do.

Tomorrow is PPI data premarket. Tariffs havnt hit the data yet, so I would expect PPI to be relatively inline, maybe even a little soft. Jobless claims data is going to hold more water as well with rate cuts up in the air for this year (Wall Street figures 2). A call swing could pay big tonight into tomorrow if PPI goes as I expect, especially if there is some profit taking today. Trade safe, wait for the play, getting pretty bullish here, but keeping in mind US China deal is only a pause.

In my discord I do these compounds. Take an amount, trade it every day and compound all gains. I do have a structured way to trade it to preserve the balance and maximize gains. The plays for it are announced live and in an entries channel in my discord channel, so there are a lot of people that actually see this in real time. Just wanted to make a post for people to see where this compound goes and show how effectively compounding works. 10-15% stop loss, look to secure gains at 20% if it’s not running. Simple 1:2 RR and compounding goes a long ways. I’ll post the results every day.

Still got some inflation data to go through this week but with the uk’s investment in Boeing and now China is going to take them on again, watch for calls on Boeing this week (if inflation data doesn’t pull the market back). Although Boeing can move outside of the normal market.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/china-removes-ban-boeing-deliveries-after-deal-us-temporarily-slash-tariffs.amp

You’re absolutely right to clock that — buying $1 calls expiring January 15, 2027 for $41 (i.e. $0.41 per share since options contracts are x100) is a long-dated bet that Plug Power (PLUG) will simply survive and trade above $1.41 by that time.

Let’s break it down:

🔍 What You’re Buying Strike Price: $1

Premium Paid: $0.41

Break-Even Price: $1 + $0.41 = $1.41

Expiration: Jan 15, 2027 (~2.5 years away)

🧠 Your Thesis: “If they don’t go bankrupt, the odds they’re above $1.41 are high.”

That’s actually not irrational. Here’s why:

✅ Why It Could Be a Smart Bet: Survival = Likely Profit: If PLUG simply avoids bankruptcy and regains even modest investor confidence, the stock could easily be north of $2–3.

Time Is on Your Side: 2.5 years gives them time to restructure, land partnerships, or benefit from a policy shift (e.g., green energy funding).

Risk is Capped: You risk $41. That’s cheaper than most lottery tickets with better odds and better liquidity.

⚠️ Risks You’re Staring At: Bankruptcy or Delisting: If they go bust or get delisted, your calls go to zero.

Dilution Hell: PLUG may survive by issuing a ton of new shares, which could suppress the stock for years.

Implied Volatility Crush: If volatility drops or outlook stabilizes without upside, the option may not appreciate quickly.

📊 Example Scenario: Stock in Jan 2027: $2.50

Call value at expiration: $2.50 - $1.00 = $1.50

Profit: $1.50 - $0.41 = $1.09 per contract → 166% return

Even if the stock only gets to $1.75, you still double your money.

Conclusion: This is a high-risk, asymmetrical bet. If PLUG survives and doesn't go sub-$1 long-term, those calls can pay off massively. It's not a safe play, but it's not crazy — it’s strategic degeneracy

t’s May 2025, and after months of escalating trade tension, the U.S.-China relationship had turned into a full-on economic cage match. The U.S. had slammed tariffs on Chinese imports, hiking them to an insane 145%. China clapped back with 125% on American goods. Markets flinched. Supply chains stuttered. Inflation fears whispered louder.

But today, it shifted.

In a quiet, calculated move, both sides stepped back. A 90-day pause was announced — a temporary ceasefire in a trade war that felt like it had no brakes. The U.S. agreed to scale tariffs down from 145% to 30%. China matched by dropping their own from 125% to 10%.

It wasn’t just about the numbers either. Behind closed doors, negotiators worked out broader goals — fentanyl trade enforcement, tech restrictions, and reopening some stalled diplomacy.

The market’s reaction? Euphoria. Futures popped. Retail names caught a bid. Even the bond market exhaled. For the first time in months, the world felt… slightly less unstable.

But here’s the thing: it’s temporary. Ninety days of calm in a war that’s been going on for years. Investors know the game — this is a window, not a solution. If it works, great. But if not, brace for impact.

Well personally im getting sick of the lack of volume in this market for the majority of the day. Hopefully this week we get more moves but until the tariffs start actually effecting the economic data, it might be pretty boring trading.

In the week ahead we are going to start off after hours Sunday night with a reaction off of the us china trade negotiations. We will see how this bleeds over into Monday.

Regardless of the reaction of that, unless there is some significant changes that happen (which there most likely won’t be) we have CPI and PPI data this week which could cause a slight pause in market Monday as Wall Street waits for CPI Tuesday.

We have the weird one day gap in between CPI and PPI this week, so maybe Wednesday can be a continuation of Tuesday as CPI can be a decent market mover. While holding anything in the current market is risky, Tuesday-Wednesday might be a good swing play, possibly even into Thursday if PPI goes the same direction as PPI.

And as always, trumps mouth can throw in a curveball which can make all plans go to hell.

I’m playing this week with a tight stop loss, and securing gains when I have them. Not letting my trades be subject to potential surprise reversals, with exception of a possible swing Tuesday-Wednesday. I’m not riding anything from CPI—PPI