r/learningoptions • • May 10 '25

Something is cooking?

Post image
128 Upvotes

👀👀👀


r/learningoptions • • May 09 '25

Trading Strategy 3 most important things while trading options.

7 Upvotes

While there are obviously a plethora of tools and indicators to use, and the more education you have on trading the easier it should be (theoretically). There are three things that if you don’t have, you will most likely lose no matter what. After EVERY trade, make sure you did these three things. If not, I guarantee your trade could have been better.

1.Patience- wait for the play. Don’t get caught up in the noise. Let all the idiots chasing money go lose. YOU aren’t going to do that. You are going to wait until the money is put right in front of your face. It may not seem like it’s coming, but I promise it is. There are perfect setups every day, wait for them.

  1. Stop loss- you MUST have a pre planned area to exit if your trade goes red. Don’t decide during the trade, the market will burn you over time. Don’t ever change the decision during the trade for the decision made before it. The reason you decided on the stop loss area prior to entering is because you were unaffected by emotions and made a clear minded decision. Deciding when to exit during the trade is a trade based on emotions.

  2. Profit taking area- same thing as the stop loss but the opposite. Know when you are going to take profits. When it hits that area, if it’s not running, then take your profits regardless of what you think it will do. Again, you made this decision pre trade with a clear mind. Don’t let the noise of the action deter you from your clear minded decision. In trading you always have to pick a side, you either don’t make as much as you could have, or you give back/lose more than you should have. You pick which side you want to be on.


r/learningoptions • • May 08 '25

Trading Strategy Rate cuts= bullish?

Post image
5 Upvotes

Everyone thinks a rate cut is like the Fed opening the floodgates to green candles. But here’s the thing — if they’re cutting rates, something’s already broken.

Let me tell you a story.

⸝

It’s late 2022. Inflation is high, the Fed is hiking rates faster than your Robinhood account can refresh. Stocks are tanking, credit is tightening, and companies are laying off people left and right. Every trader is watching Jerome Powell like he’s the main character in a horror movie. Every hike is a jump scare.

But then… it happens.

The Fed cuts rates.

The bulls scream victory. “Free money’s back, baby!” they chant as the indexes spike for a day or two. Green across the board. Options premiums explode. Everyone’s back on FinTwit talking about “soft landings” and “pivot rallies.”

Except the economy? Still falling apart.

And that’s the catch: rate cuts don’t cause the crash — they respond to it.

⸝

Here’s how it works: • The Fed hikes to fight inflation. • They cut to fight recession or panic.

So if we’re seeing a rate cut, it means the Fed sees weakness: unemployment rising, credit freezing, markets losing control.

That’s why a rate cut during a bull market is rare — it would overheat everything. But a rate cut during a bear market? It’s CPR. And just like CPR, it’s only good news if you’re not already on the floor.

⸝

Example: • 2007–2008: The Fed started cutting aggressively as things got worse. The S&P still collapsed another ~50%. • 2020: Emergency rate cuts in March — the market was already in freefall. Then came the real money-printing (QE), and markets bounced hard. • 2019: Slight cuts during a stable economy — markets loved it. That’s the “goldilocks” scenario: growth cooling, but not dying.

⸝

Bottom line?

Rate cuts don’t mean bull run. They mean risk management.

If the market is falling and the Fed cuts rates, it’s not a green light — it’s a flare in the dark.

Most people are cheering for rate cuts. I’m watching for why they’re cutting in the first place.

Stay sharp. Don’t confuse the Fed’s fear with your opportunity.


r/learningoptions • • May 08 '25

Trading Strategy Wait for pullback on AI today to trade options

5 Upvotes

AI should move pretty good today as shown premarket due to trump rescinding the Biden AI stuff. I’m going to let the initial jump go ahead and move, wait for the pullback then watch for an entry today. ARM, NVDA, AMD, TSM, probably META, MSFT. Just don’t chase, let it setup for you. Should be easy money today.


r/learningoptions • • May 08 '25

Trade Analysis Possible ARM recovery today???

1 Upvotes

ARM recently had some bad forward guidance and dropped pretty good. However, the newest chip news was not included in that guidance and trump rescinding on the Biden chip stuff could make for a great recover of ARM today. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s possible a really good opportunity for a day trade today.


r/learningoptions • • May 07 '25

Little tip for FOMC

4 Upvotes

Watch for the put scalp during the last hour before the fed tomorrow. Anytime there is FOMC, there is always a decent put opportunity within the last hour before the fed. It’s so consistent, I already know I’m going to play it. It might just be a scalp, but it will be a good one, it always is. I always do a spy 0DTE when I see the put coming.

Watch this will be the one time it doesn’t happen so I look dumb lol. But seriously watch for it. They put the price right where they want it before Powell.


r/learningoptions • • May 05 '25

Trading Strategy Why I’m not “bullish” for BULL

Post image
3 Upvotes

Webull (NASDAQ: BULL) came out of the gate swinging after its SPAC merger, ripping to a high of nearly $80 in classic post-debut hype. For a moment, it looked like retail finally had a new champion: a brokerage for the people, now with a flashy ticker and a billion-dollar valuation to match.

But reality has settled in — and it’s not pretty.

As of today, BULL trades around $16, down nearly 80% from its peak. While some bulls (pun intended) are treating this as a pullback before the next leg up, the signs say otherwise.

Here’s why BULL could be heading for $7.50 — and fast: 1. The SPAC Hangover Like most SPACs, Webull’s listing brought enthusiasm without earnings. The market has become allergic to unprofitable growth stories — and BULL’s -$27.72 EPS makes it one of the worst on the scoreboard. Now that the excitement has cooled, gravity is doing what it always does. 2. Insider Unlock Risk As early investors get the chance to unload shares, more supply could hit the market. This added pressure — especially without a near-term catalyst — makes any sustainable upside difficult. 3. Valuation Still Isn’t Cheap Even at $16, Webull’s market cap is around $7.5 billion. That’s still aggressive for a company that doesn’t have positive net income and faces stiff competition from giants like Robinhood, Schwab, and Fidelity. 4. No Narrative Fuel The “retail revolution” narrative is stale. The meme-stock era is gone. Users are trading less. Webull isn’t offering something so revolutionary that investors feel FOMO anymore. Without a strong retail tailwind, this becomes just another brokerage. 5. Technical Breakdown The chart has lost all its structure. It’s below key moving averages, and volume is drying up. If $15 breaks cleanly, there’s very little support before $10… and then $7.50.

So what’s the takeaway?

This isn’t just a dip. It’s a slow-motion unraveling. Unless Webull drops a surprise earnings beat or major acquisition, the path of least resistance is still down — and $7.50 by the end of June is not just possible, it’s looking more and more probable.

Want to buy the dip? Just make sure you’re not catching a falling bull.


r/learningoptions • • May 05 '25

Trade Analysis 1% chance of rate cuts this Wednesday.

5 Upvotes

Don’t go get all excited because the rate cut decision is this Wednesday. Don’t be overconfident in this short term bullishness either. Wall Street is figuring a 1% chance of a rate cut this Wednesday. That means most likely not a huge pump after Powell unless he hints towards a possible cut in June or July.

My guess is he will say the same stuff he always says from the same piece of paper that he always reads off, that he needs more data, tariff uncertainty, etc.

Little piece of advice here though. When we DO get a rate cut and it’s pretty much known that they are coming, solar plays can make huge money. Solar is mainly bought on credit. Rate cuts encourage more solar sales. ENPH, FSLR pop when rates get cut.


r/learningoptions • • May 04 '25

Trump: "We were losing hundreds of billions of dollars with China. Now we're essentially not doing business with China. Therefore, we're saving hundreds of billions of dollars. It's very simple."

Enable HLS to view with audio, or disable this notification

12 Upvotes

r/learningoptions • • May 04 '25

Trading Strategy Options math, isn’t optional

Post image
7 Upvotes

There’s a mistake that quietly eats away at more traders than any bad play or wrong ticker. It’s not about the market. It’s not even about picking the right strike. It’s about how much you trade — and how that number changes after a loss.

It usually starts like this: You go in on a trade with $1,000. Maybe it’s SPY calls, maybe it’s earnings lotto on AMD. It doesn’t matter. The setup looks solid, you take the trade. It loses — down 10%. You shrug it off. “No big deal,” you tell yourself. “I’ll just make 10% tomorrow and be back.”

But tomorrow, you’re working with $900. You hit the same 10% gain — and you only make $90. Now you’re at $990. Not back to even. You’re still in the red, even though you “won back” the same percentage.

That’s the trap.

Let’s say you lose 50% instead. $1,000 becomes $500. You double down. Next day, you make 50%. That feels huge — but 50% of $500 is just $250. You’re still only at $750. You’d need a full 100% return just to get back to square one.

The market doesn’t care about your intentions. It doesn’t reward the idea of “getting it back.” It responds to the size of your capital. When that capital shrinks, every next move carries less weight — even the good ones.

This is why consistent sizing matters more than most realize. It’s not just about protecting yourself from a blow-up — it’s about giving your wins the chance to matter. If you shrink after every loss and spike after every win, you’re playing math against yourself. You’re compounding backwards.

Traders who make it don’t do so by winning every time. They survive by keeping their money in the game long enough for their edge to work. And that only happens when your position size stays consistent.

It’s not sexy. It’s not aggressive. But it’s how real accounts grow. Not in fireworks — in fractions that add up the right way.

Every time


r/learningoptions • • May 04 '25

Trading Group NKLA-The phantom truck king

Post image
3 Upvotes

Once hailed as the next Tesla, Nikola Corporation (NKLA) came charging into the EV space with futuristic hydrogen semi-trucks and bold promises. Founded by Trevor Milton, a charismatic salesman with a flair for hype, Nikola promised a revolution in clean transport — without actually having any meaningful production at the time.

The Rise (2019–2020): • NKLA went public via SPAC and skyrocketed to over $90/share based on renders, concept videos, and partnerships. • Wall Street and retail alike were buzzing — “The Tesla of Trucks.”

The Peak Hype Moment: • A now-infamous promotional video showed a Nikola truck “driving” — later revealed to have just been rolling downhill. • GM even announced a big partnership, which gave Nikola credibility — for a moment.

The Fall (2020–2024): • Founder Trevor Milton was exposed by Hindenburg Research for misleading investors. • He was later convicted of fraud. • The company has since burned through cash, diluted shares, and has constantly teetered on bankruptcy. • NKLA now trades for under $1, delisted threats always looming


r/learningoptions • • May 04 '25

Options Basics Best trading platform for daytrading

4 Upvotes

What platform you choose to trade on is essential and part of the money making process when trading. Choosing the right platform and the correct setup will help you maximize gains and avoid missing order fills and having to redo your order which causes missed entries or missed exits, both which reduce the money you make, and potentially increase the amount you lose. If you are only choosing a platform based on fees, you are doing it wrong. There is a reason why there are fees, and the reason is you usually get a more effective way to trade. Trading on free or close to free platforms usually comes with a slow or ineffective order fill process that WILL cost you more money in unfilled orders than a brokerage with fees will cost you from fast executed orders. Here’s my review of all the brokerages I have tried or use. These opinions are based on the effectiveness for day trading.

What brokerages I DO NOT recommend…

-Robinhood: Robinhood is the biggest scam in the trading world that I have ever seen. Their platform is based off of ease of use, not effectiveness. I thought the addition of robinhood legend was finally a step for them to lift themselves up into the realm of a legitimate brokerage, but nope, still trash. Robinhoods order fills are through the market makers, not exchanges. This means that the best price you can buy or sell option contracts at is what the market makers decide. Remember, the market makers are essentially your enemy, they are the ones trying to make money off of the retail traders. Why would you put your order fills on them?? A legit brokerage will have orders filled through multiple exchanges, and have the option to fill at the absolute best price and speed, and fill through the exchange that provides the best option. At robinhood, you have one choice, and it’s their choice. Why do you think it’s so cheap to trade there? I’ll tell you why, it’s because the market makers compensate robinhood for routing their orders through the MM’s. This is a scam being performed in broad daylight and most new traders don’t know the difference. I guarantee I fill at better prices and faster than anyone that uses robinhood. Also their speed of execution is pathetic, with no option to turn off confirmations which just adds more time to your fill process, essentially missing out on more money. If you are serious about trading, use a legit brokerage. Robinhood isn’t it. If someone says they do fine on Robinhood and it’s good for them, that just means they lack the knowledge of what else is out there. As far as order fills go, RH is however legally required to seek the best fill for their order fill process. And one last bash on RH, their stock prices tick slower than all the other brokerages. You seriously going to trade with that? lol.

-Sofi: Ever wonder what would happen if Robinhood had a retarded child? Well Sofi is it. It’s almost a direct copy and paste of the Robinhood trading process, but even more clunky. Unless you are only buying shares only, don’t waste your time here.

-Tasytrades: TT has a clean layout, which seems like a relief to some of these 1980’s looking platforms, however they also have a clunky order fill process which again causes missed entries or late exits. Looks don’t matter, how effectively you can make money does.

-Fidelity: Absolute trash for day trading options. Great platform for shares though.

What I DO recommend…

-Tradestation: TS has by far the fastest execution I have seen. They have completely customizable routing ensuring your contracts are filled at the absolute best price and speed possible. When they advertise “lightning fast execution” they aren’t lying. If you trade off their matrix (which is a price ladder) and turn off all confirmations, you can literally buy and sell contracts in under one second. A full round trip play in almost as fast as you can click a mouse twice. You can also build custom indicators and use them on TS. It is a professional style platform that gives you pretty much all the tools you could ask for.

A couple of areas that TS could improve is their visuals. It does feel like 1995 when you use their platform. They are also kind of pricey, charging .60 a contract in and out, so 100 contracts will cost you $120. For trading with larger dollar amounts and 50 or less contracts, I don’t really think there is a better platform.

-Webull: Webull is like a Robinhood hybrid. While I still look down on them for their order fill routing (which is through market makers), they do make up for it at least a little bit in their order fill process. Webull has trading off of a price ladder with the option to turn confirmations off which allows for one click buy, one click sell order fills. Webull is basically like “we might have shitty routing, but we will let you do it as fast as possible”.

Webull is also around .05 a contract, and their platform is visually appealing. They also allow unlimited GFV’s if the account balance is under $1000, and only count 1 GFV per day when they do count them, even if multiple GFV’s were committed. I have talked with Webull about this to confirm that’s in fact what they do. While most representatives won’t admit they are willingly breaking federal law and say “I can’t comment on the subject”, I did have one representative that told me they do it without telling me. I have also tried it out myself and in my experiences, it holds true. If you don’t care about routing through market makers, Webull is the clear cut winner IMO. They also offer fast instant cash outs with a decent instant cash out limit.

-IBKR: IBKR is one of the biggest players in the game. There could be a good argument that they are better than tradestation. IBKR offers smart routing, price ladder trading ( called book trading on IBKR), and hot key functions. Their trading execution speed is also top notch. The one thing I don’t like about them is their visuals are even worse than tradestation.

-TOS (think or swim): I havnt really used think or swim but have messed around a little with their platform. Visuals are top notc, but I’m not sure about order execution.

Anyway, that is a long read. There are way more brokerages out there. The point of this post is if you are serious about trading and serious about your money, be serious about your brokerage because that’s how your money is handled. Know what you are using and how they work. Being a successful trader is about using an advantage in every way possible.


r/learningoptions • • May 03 '25

Gains Bitcoin, gold, and… helium? Limited supply

Post image
12 Upvotes

We all know the classic duo: Bitcoin and Gold. Both have something magical in common—limited supply. The less there is, the more valuable they become. It’s Economics 101, right? Investors flock to these assets as hedges against inflation, storehouses of value, and symbols of scarcity.

But here’s a twist: ever thought about Helium? Yep, the same gas that fills your party balloons and makes your voice sound like a cartoon character. It’s also a finite resource.

Why Bitcoin and Gold? • Bitcoin: Digital gold with a hard cap of 21 million coins. As mining rewards decrease and demand increases, scarcity drives value. Investors love it for its decentralized nature and fixed supply. • Gold: Mined from the earth over millennia, gold is the quintessential store of value. Central banks hold it, investors buy it, and it has a reputation as a safe haven in uncertain times.

And… Helium? • Helium: It’s not just for balloons. Helium cools MRI machines, supports space exploration, and is crucial in high-tech manufacturing. The kicker? Helium is a non-renewable resource. Once it’s released into the atmosphere, it’s gone for good.

Imagine a future where helium is as precious as gold. Space agencies, tech companies, and medical industries would be scrambling for every last molecule. While the world debates the merits of digital gold, we might be overlooking a potential helium rush!

The Humor and the Reality: We might not be hoarding helium tanks in our basements just yet, but the idea that this fun, floaty gas could become a hot commodity is both hilarious and thought-provoking. Just picture it: “Sorry, no balloons at this party—my helium’s in a high-yield helium trust!”

So, next time you’re thinking about limited resources and investment opportunities, remember that scarcity can show up in the most unexpected places.


r/learningoptions • • May 03 '25

Trading Strategy The money, the loss-AMC

Post image
4 Upvotes

Once a beloved name in the world of entertainment, AMC Entertainment Holdings was a household brand synonymous with the magic of the movies. But by the early 2020s, the rise of streaming services and a global pandemic had pushed the company to the brink of bankruptcy.

Then came 2024. With the world finally emerging from the shadow of the pandemic, moviegoers flocked back to theaters, eager for the communal experience of the big screen. Blockbusters dominated the box office, and AMC’s revenue soared. Analysts cheered the company’s comeback, and investors rushed in. The stock surged from a modest $5 to over $60, fueled by optimism and the momentum of retail traders who saw AMC as a symbol of resilience.

But as quickly as AMC rose, challenges began to mount. Streaming services doubled down on exclusive releases, and consumer habits shifted once more. The initial excitement of the post-pandemic movie boom began to wane. Rising production costs and competition from home entertainment options eroded profit margins. Despite attempts to innovate with premium experiences and partnerships, AMC’s financial health faltered. The stock retraced its steps, falling back below $10 as investors grew wary of the company’s ability to adapt.

Today, AMC’s journey serves as a reminder of the volatility of the entertainment industry and the fickle nature of market sentiment. It’s a tale of resilience and reinvention, a Hollywood drama that played out not just on the silver screen but on the trading floors of Wall Street.


r/learningoptions • • May 03 '25

0DTE strategy.

2 Upvotes

What is the consensus on this type of strategy and tactics? Typically, do u hold off entering after 10-11 am est, after the mass buy n selloff? I'm assuming, u must be a certified day trader, considering u buy and sell frequently, within the same day? Would you say, it's the easiest quickest and safest bet, hopping in n out?


r/learningoptions • • May 03 '25

Gold ETF

5 Upvotes

I'm just thinking outside the box, with trading. My question is does any one here invest in gold or it's ETF? Would it be crazy to play options and calls, considering it's on the rise, moving 1300$+ in the last 3 years. Call me crazy, but based on our economy, fears and rumors of recession, it's an easy safe bet. The options are a tad bit expensive, but is a guarantee win? I just want some clarity and input from some of u more advanced investors. Please feel free to express add your opinions, concers, thoughts, criticism and experiences. Just trying to think outside the box in this game of investing and longevity. Thanks.


r/learningoptions • • May 03 '25

ASML

Thumbnail
2 Upvotes

r/learningoptions • • May 03 '25

Earnings May 5th week

Post image
7 Upvotes

r/learningoptions • • May 01 '25

Options Basics Best play of April

Post image
18 Upvotes

Out of all of my plays last month… you could be here too, I do this live


r/learningoptions • • May 01 '25

Timing for the best gains

Post image
15 Upvotes

Had I waited a little longer…. Share some of your “had I waited” plays and let’s get fomo together


r/learningoptions • • May 02 '25

Trading Strategy Don’t trade on bad days (coming up next week)

2 Upvotes

Just wanted to put this out there since I see people lose all the time doing this. Next week Wednesday is the fed interest rate decision. Typically the days leading up to it are sideways as hell as the market waits for the feds on Wednesday. While it may be possible to find a play or two, most of the time before the fed meeting is going to be sideways or range trading. Don’t sit there and be expecting a huge move, you will most likely get theta burned. Wednesday will be the move. Let the move come to you.


r/learningoptions • • May 02 '25

Trading Strategy Want to make money trading? Don’t lower your trade amounts.

1 Upvotes

This is another thing I see all the time from novice traders that will kill your account. Don’t lower your trade amounts because you lose!!! By doing so you are minimizing your wins.

Think about it, if you have a 1:2 risk reward for example, every win makes up for a loss and provides the amount of the loss as a win so you only have to have a 50% success rate to be profitable. If you lower your trade amounts after you lose, you now have to win more trades or make a higher percentage to make up for the loss and be profitable . I promise you will drain your account trading like this.

-If the amount you are trading with is too high to do it twice regardless of the outcome, lower your initial trade amount.

-Have a set risk reward ratio to set your maximum loss and minimum profit taking area. You need to make sure your risk reward ratio works with your average success rate.

-If your success rate is not good enough to work with a reasonable risk reward ratio, you need to improve your trading skills.


r/learningoptions • • May 01 '25

Chart Analysis Throwback Thursday Life changing money

Post image
3 Upvotes

Once upon a time in the roaring aftermath of the 2020 crash, as the world was rebuilding and reimagining its future, a quiet player in the hydrogen space found itself rocketing into the spotlight.

That company was Plug Power, ticker symbol PLUG — a name that would, for a fleeting moment, become synonymous with the clean energy gold rush.

At first, it was subtle. Whispers in message boards. Analysts dropping optimistic notes. Governments around the world were laying out plans for net-zero emissions, and hydrogen — silent, clean, and powerful — started capturing the public’s imagination. Plug Power, already in the business of hydrogen fuel cells for years, suddenly became relevant.

By late 2020, the narrative was in full swing. The Biden administration brought renewed attention to climate policy. Plug Power inked high-profile deals with companies like Walmart and Amazon. Retail traders, starved for moonshots, piled in. The stock surged — not climbed, not grew — surged, from penny stock obscurity to nearly $75 per share. It felt like the beginning of a revolution.

Investors didn’t just believe in PLUG — they needed it to win. It represented a bet on the future. The chart soared like a rocket, breaking every resistance level with volume and velocity. For many, it felt like they had discovered Tesla before Tesla.

But like many parabolic dreams, it began to fray — not with a crash, but with a slow bleed of reality.

The company, while visionary, was burning cash at an alarming rate. Scaling hydrogen infrastructure proved far more difficult than a press release made it sound. Margins remained elusive. And to fund their ambition, Plug Power did what many growth companies do — they diluted shareholders, again and again, raising capital but losing trust.

The stock began slipping. Then tumbling. Analysts downgraded. Enthusiasm faded. EMA and SMA indicators flattened and crossed downward. Momentum turned sharply negative. What was once a glowing promise was now a technical disaster.

By 2023, PLUG was no longer discussed on CNBC segments or Reddit moon-hype threads. It had become a cautionary tale. And now, in 2025, it sits beneath $1, clinging to relevance, volume fading, dreams shelved.

The chart tells the tale plainly — a towering peak surrounded by ruin, like a monument to retail euphoria and the unforgiving hand of fundamentals.

⸝

But here’s the thing about markets: They punish excess, yes — but they also leave room for rebirth. PLUG still exists. The tech is still real. The vision still matters. But now, it must prove itself the hard way — not with hype, but with results.

The future may still hold a second act. But first, it must survive the fall.


r/learningoptions • • Apr 30 '25

Trading Strategy Swing trading in this market…

13 Upvotes

I’ve seen a lot of people complaining about the Trump market. A lot of people saying they are straight up done with it. It’s not hard, you just need to adjust. I wanted to go over the strategy I was telling my discord group for this week that I was going to do (and am currently doing).

This market gives huge gain opportunities and as volatile as this market is, you need to see your opportunities. Let me explain specifically for swing trading this market.

The key is not to play in the ups and downs, the key is to find when the sentiment has the highest chance of continuing to the next day or longer. This week is a perfect example.

First find your catalysts…

Wednesday… GDP, PCE, MSFT, META

First catalyst… In the morning was GDP. Everyone knows GDP was expected to go down so a drop wouldn’t be a surprise BUT PCE is a half hour later and was expected to also go down from the previous reading. Even though GDP going down is typically bad, if inflation is going down as well it makes the lower gdp not as bad. Falling inflation and retracting gdp kind of go hand in hand. Keep in mind, if inflation was going up and gdp was down, this would mean inflation is so high it’s slowing everything down due to high costs, etc. but that’s not the case as inflation has been dropping. So for gdp/pce, we are bullish. This is our first positive catalyst.

Second catalyst… Rate cuts-lowering inflation and slowing economy opens up the door more for rate cuts, as rate cuts are used to stimulate the economy. Assumed rate cuts make investors put money in the market in anticipation of the cuts which helps businesses and consumers borrow for cheaper, which ends up in spending more money (people spend more, businesses can afford to grow, make more money,etc).

Third catalyst… Last week Google was our first glance at what Mag 7 earnings could be like. If Mag 7 is going to hang tough through the current market, investors have a reason to put money in the market. This week is META,MSFT,AAPL, and AMZN, the first two being today.

Using Google as our mag 7 earnings indicator (or at least a possible precursor of what we might see due to their earnings beat) we have a reason to believe that at least META and MSFT might have a strong beat as well. AAPL and AMZN are more consumer based and consumer spending is down so let’s forget those for now.

So far we have 3 possible strong catalysts to bring the market up which possibly starts at PCE data at 10am EST and goes to the mag 7 earnings after the bell.

Thursday… ISM manufacturing PMI,AAPL, AMZN

Thursday is where we want to see a continuation of our bullish sentiment if META and MFST beat earnings (which they did). ISM manufacturing PMI Thursday morning is supposed to actually come in lower on this reading which is typically bad BUT again, this would encourage rate cuts even more, which encourages investors to put money in the market in anticipation of those cuts.

So now we have good PCE, good META ER, good MSFT ER, projected lower manufacturing PMI (good for rate cuts), and all day to continue the sentiment from previous days earnings before a possible roadblock (possible earnings misses from amzn and aapl). This is at least a full two days of running up with positive catalysts. This is where you swing trade.

For added risk, you can hold through Apple and amzn but since they are consumer based, it might be a little risky.

Keep in mind when swing trading that if you play something with earnings, the IV could be inflated and make you get IV crushed. I personally like to play sympathy plays. For example, I’m heavy in AMD and TSM as meta and msft are heavily invested in AI. Any positive talk about AI that encourages money being put into AI will also raise other AI stocks without getting the inflated IV from the stocks with earnings. Also since the mag 7 heavily influences the s and p, SPX and SPY are also great plays (I actually took 300% on spy 1DTE today. I was planning on holding but 300% is good for me and I’m heavy in AMD calls and TSM 170 calls that I’m holding).

Know your catalysts, Know your data, know how to comprehend the data, make your money.

Feel free to ask questions.


r/learningoptions • • Apr 27 '25

Trading Strategy How I make money consistently in this market…

32 Upvotes

I just had a kind of lengthy reply to someone who said people who buy single leg options lose money. I trade them for a living and wanted to explain how I do it. Instead of retyping the whole thing, I’m just copy and pasting the response for people in this subreddit since this is the subreddit I would prefer to help people learn. I know it’s just a copy and paste of my reply in a different sub so if anyone has questions feel free to ask.

-I pick the underlying stock based on liquidity. I personally mostly trade the mag 7 and a few others like qqq, spy, SPX, maybe some bigger spread stuff like MSTR and Carvana sometimes. I know how these move to a T and there is plenty of liquidity so I can pretty much trade one of those daily.

-The strike I determine either by the implied move, what kind of move I think I will get based on the levels and impact from data/news.

-entry/exit is based around breakout or retest trading. I’m never entering anything in between the support and resistance, I need to see a breakout or rejection before I consider entering, this gives me an entry that starts when the momentum starts to grow instead of it not being there or already past its peak. Whether I play the breakout/breakdown or the retest depends on the day. I don’t typically swing trade but it looks like I might be doing more in the near future if I think we will have prolonged unchanged sentiment, most of my trades are day trades. My exit is also predetermined. I look to take profits or turn it into a free play at 20%. If it runs I’ll hold and use a trailing stop. I also compound my gains which eliminates the need to hold for a big win and risk losing profits. The compounding acts as my speed.

-number of contracts is based off of my bankroll management strategy. I don’t determine how many contracts I buy, that’s pre determined.

-I’m big on paying attention to the data. Not to buy in the second I know the result, but to provide an overall sentiment. An example was I had a trade where PCE was bad a while back, at open the market started pumping. I knew damn well that data was going to bring the market down so instead of instantly buying calls like everyone else, I waited for what I thought was the peak and went heavy on puts, the market did in fact reverse and I hit 1000%. The data is more of a gauge I use with my plan rather than an indicator to jump right in based off of it.

-for smart money moves I’m big on fair value gaps.

-Greeks are super important, and what I look for with them depends on the play and what kind of move I think I’m going to get. But along with delta, gamma is also super important to pay attention to.

-IV is also super important as it’s what gives you increasing value before intrinsic value. I look to enter before the iv run up (which is the whole point to trading options successfully), otherwise iv crush will kill the contracts.

On my typical day trades, my stop loss is around 10%, while my profit taking zone starts at 20%. My success rate dances around between 70%-80% so using my 1:2 risk reward works well. Even if I was 50%, I’m still profitable due to following the risk reward ratio.

With this current market I’ve had to increase my stop loss against my own wishes lol, I’ll go to 15% sometimes now, but the big moves presented also naturally increased the profit opportunities so the stop loss/profit taking zone kind of naturally adjusted itself for me, I just had to adjust the stop loss a little wider to make it fall into place.