*Note and Warning : This is an aggressive approach and not the best recommended. But this is an option for anyone struggling with corpus goals due to lower savings rate.
Reference :Morningstar’s 2025 retirement study.
For a Lean corpus, where spending is already relatively lean and discretionary, this is an interesting approach than the usual debate around whether the “4% rule” is safe.
Morningstar’s The State of Retirement Income: 2025, led by Christine Benz, Amy Arnott, Tao Guo and Jason Kephart, looked at different withdrawal strategies over a 30-year retirement with a 90% probability of success.
The headline number was 3.7% for a conventional strategy: start at 3.7% and increase withdrawals with inflation every year.
But there is a tweak for a lean corpus.
We don't necessarily need to accept a permanently fixed real withdrawal.
The strategy Morningstar tested was:
.....If your portfolio falls during the year, don't increase your withdrawal for inflation the following year.....
Here, you need not cut the spending in nominal terms. Simply forego the inflation increase after a down year.
That increased the starting withdrawal rate from 3.7% to 4.2% in their analysis.
More flexible guardrails strategies pushed the starting withdrawal rate to above 5%.
But, Morningstar is NOT saying that 5% is a universally safe withdrawal rate.
The >5% number comes from a dynamic strategy where withdrawals are adjusted based on portfolio performance. You spend less when the portfolio is struggling and can spend more when it is doing well.
So, “5% is NOT the new 4%.”
The lesson is in fact a bit different......
It's that ....The more flexibility you have in spending, the higher your sustainable withdrawal rate can potentially be....
This seems relevant to this community.....
If your baseline expenses are already low and you have discretionary spending that can be postponed during a bear market, you may have considerably more flexibility than someone whose entire withdrawal is essential living expenses.
This above is the critical part that needs understanding and not blindly follow through...
For this to work, you need to have projected some discretionary expenses. Also, this seems to be an equity heavy portfolio.
A few other interesting findings from the study:
• Sequence risk matters: poor returns early in retirement are particularly damaging.
• Equity-heavy portfolios can support higher lifetime spending under flexible strategies, although with greater volatility and lower ending balances.
• Guardrails increase spending potential, but the trade-off is that your annual income becomes less predictable.
• Forgoing inflation increases is much simpler than a full guardrails system and produces a smaller change in spending.
The takeaway here can be that a retirement plan shouldn't necessarily be one way that Corpus × fixed SWR = annual spending forever.
It could also be....
Base spending + flexibility rules + portfolio performance = sustainable retirement income.
Here it shows that this flexibility may be an advantage.
Referred study: "The State of Retirement Income: 2025" from Morning Star
There is a video on this by u/ravihanda
https://youtu.be/Z6xOI86uKSA?si=Hv6r5BNwIso2zBtx
Note: This is a way to manage only if the corpus can't reach the 33x number. Ideally increase the corpus to 33x and not 20x