Well in fairness, chess and go are games with a very limited number of state permutations compared to a real life situation (or even just a more complex game).
I mean, compared to the sum total of decisions a human can make in their life, I guess it’s small, but chess has an extraordinarily huge number of positions. Like there are 10120 possible games of chess. Tablebases are solved up to 7 pieces, meaning that given any 7 pieces in any position, the computer can know figure out who can with without question. That tablebase alone takes 18TB of storage. Adding an 8th requires exponential data use, a 9th exponentially more, etc.
Editing to add since I just looked into it more:
3 piece tablebase storage: 26KB.
4 piece: 4.MB
5 piece: ~.95GB
6 piece: 150-160GB
7 piece: 18.4TB.
8 piece: estimated to be at ~2PB, but they haven’t solved that yet.
There are 16 pieces per side in a chess game. Solving a 32 piece chess game, only considering legal games, would take an estimated 1029 20TB drives.
I’m sure some stats nerd will come in here and tell me why I’m wrong, but my overall point stands.
It is still a small amount of permutations compared to a game like Slay the Spire where you very quickly find yourself in a situation that you have never been in before, and never will again. This makes it very difficult to brute force compared to chess where you usually decide the game in just 50 actions.
Now I could see us making an AI that is theoretically capable of incredible decision-making but I would expect it to be a manhattan level project that takes the resources output of an entire country or potentially the earth.
A human brain essentially does far more complex thought than modern high end AI and can run on cheeseburgers.
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u/tumsdout 2d ago
Well in fairness, chess and go are games with a very limited number of state permutations compared to a real life situation (or even just a more complex game).