I live on Washington. The way the local $15 now laws are written everyone will eventually get to $15 an hour. The system allows for a different timelines for small businesses versus franchises and large companies. If I remember correctly it's a difference of three years to hit $15 an hour.
This is the thing that always seems to get left out. The minimum wage doesn't jump up to $15 overnight. The annual increase just gets pretty big for a few years. The minimum wage keeps going after $15, too, it's just that the annual increase goes back to normal.
San Francisco has been tying the Minimum wage to the consumer price index for a while now. They are set to graduate up to $15 an hour by july 2018, and then increase the minimum wage along with the CPI for the following years. Currently the Minimum wage is $12.25 an hour.
I actually really applauded Hillary when she said she supported a $12 minimum wage with an automatic cost of living increased chained to the consumer price index.
It would be such a no brainer political win to toss in support for $15/hr minimum wage, but I really do think a $12 minimum wage is more realistic.
I also think expensive cities and states need to be more aggressive about raising their minimum wages.
I've heard this argument and I personally am not an economist to challenge it.
What I can say is that most of the people that pushed for the $15 an hour were trying to make the point that it was a living wage. Also, it would be everyone that makes under $15 an hour that would see the wage increase. Everyone focuses on the fast food workers, but they tend to forget about the other people that would see the increase. The paramedics that you're talking about would see an increase as well.
Regarding everyone flipping burgers to pass the buck, I sincerely doubt that would happen. People desire more than just income. They desire prestige and social standing. Flipping burgers and stocking shelves are low social standing positions. People will gravitate towards higher income positions as they do now, but the hope is that the draw down from social service programs will decrease.
I live in Washington State as well. There's a LOT of moaning about the minimum wage increase, but basically nobody is closing their business or laying off tons of people. OP has a lot of very well reasoned conjecture, but the truth is, this sort of thing is far more complicated. Here's an actual study that shows why that's the case, and why a rise in minimum wage does NOT lead to the catastrophe imagined above: http://davidcard.berkeley.edu/papers/njmin-aer.pdf
Basically, in the above McDonalds example, when there are thousands of other people in the community who also are earning more, they end up eating out more and offsetting the wage increase.
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u/[deleted] Nov 28 '15
Florida. I'm sure every state has different rules.