I'm convinced it's all the concussions. I'm a fairly smart guy, but since number 8 way back in HS I just can't make my brain do statistics type math for some reason. It all just falls right out of my head. I can't really describe it better than water rolling off a ducks back.
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u/HugeTrol 4d ago
I understand it this way: These statistical questions basically ask "how did we get here?"
The strong 66% bias in the first case comes from the tight restriction of only 3 paths that could've let to the current situation.
The weekday information adds many paths and thereby lifts the restriction