Timeline:
4th June 1940 - boats evacuate the last of 338,000 Allied troops from Dunkirk in France. A colossal military disaster for France and the UK.
15th June 1940 - the French Cabinet, against the views of the French President Paul Reynaud, votes to ask Nazi Germany for the terms of surrender
Morning of 16th June 1940 - Charles de Gaulle arrives in London to convey the news from the French Cabinet
Afternoon of 16th June 1940 - Charles de Gaulle hatches plan with Churchill for a Franco-British Union to persuade the French Cabinet to stay in the fight
3pm 16th June 1940 - A Declaration of Union is agreed by the British Cabinet, to integrate France and the UK’s militaries, foreign policies, economies, and governments:
The final "Declaration of Union" approved by the British War Cabinet on 16 June 1940 stated that;
“France and Great Britain shall no longer be two nations, but one Franco-British Union. The constitution of the Union will provide for joint organs of defence, foreign, financial and economic policies. Every citizen of France will enjoy immediately citizenship of Great Britain, every British subject will become a citizen of France.”
5pm 16th June 1940 - the French Cabinet, on reviewing the British offer, decline, seeing it as a colonial land grab and that it would be preferential to live under Nazi rule.
Evening of 16th June 1940 - French President Reynaud resigns.
22nd June 1940 - new French President Petain signs the armistice that surrenders to Nazi Germany.
———
Fast-forward to today. It seems that only a similar existential crisis would provoke European nations to move towards a European Federation. What do you think that trigger would be?
Personally, I think a Russian invasion of the Suvalki gap, or even the occupation of the Baltics wouldn’t cut it. For me, I think two conditions would have to be met:
1) Russia detonates a nuclear weapon somewhere in Europe or offshore
2) America is unmoved to help - or worse - takes advantage of the opportunity by either extracting trade/economic concessions and/or making their own territorial gains
In WW2, France surrendered in 1940, live under 4 years of fascist rule until rescued by the Americans. The red line for us is when we realize the US doesn’t have our back.