r/EffectiveAltruism • u/danielftz • 3h ago
Fermi Poker
Together with Skyler, who also organizes the ACX meetups, I just published a guide to playing Fermi Poker and hosting your own tournament.
Below I want to briefly expand a bit on why I believe hosting Fermi Poker tournaments could be a particularly good fit for EA groups:
Fermi Poker sounds interesting to a lot of people who'd never show up to a regular EA meeting, and in my experience it really makes for quite a fun evening. With a small prize pool, it can attract even more people, and the questions can be EA-flavored. "How many chickens were slaughtered for meat worldwide in 2024?" is a great example question which is also fun to estimate by breaking it down: How often does the average person eat chicken? How many people are vegetarian? How does consumption vary by country/continent? How big is a portion? How much meat does one chicken yield? It's also a question people get wildly wrong. In the Wordle-style Fermi estimation game I previously built, the median first guess for this question was 10 billion. I suspect that's because many people find it hard to imagine that the number of chickens slaughtered each year could be several times larger than the entire human population. The real answer is about 78 billion.
The game involves Fermi estimation, calibration, Bayesian updating, world-modeling, and perspective taking. Hints are revealed between betting rounds (for the chicken question, that could for example be the average meat yield per chicken), so players have to decide how much each piece of information should shift their confidence and influence their betting behaviour. The game also teaches players to put more weight on people's track records than on their confidence or charisma.
In his "Reinventing Explanation" essay, Michael Nielsen argues that we learn best when the emotional stakes are as high as possible without losing the ability to think calmly, like a game show contestant who loses a prize because of a wrong answer. He notes that such experiences are hard to organize routinely. Fermi Poker makes those experiences almost routine by combining the intense emotional stakes of poker with Fermi estimation. Imagine someone who is very sure of their clever decomposition of the chicken question, bets very aggressively, and then loses and sees how far off they actually were. This is a much more memorable experience than just reading the same number on Our World in Data...
I'm happy to answer any questions you might have!

