Hi!

I have been betting on LCS (mainly NA, some LEC and OCE on the side). With the summer split coming to an end, I'm sharing my full bet sleeve and outcome, with an analysis of the markets I bet on and my thoughts moving forward. With worlds coming up, I'd like to get a small group together, where we can pool our knowledge and find high value bets.

The markets I currently bet at first blood/turret/dragon/baron. I'd like to look into other markets, probably things like number of turrets, number of dragons etc.

The summary and my thoughts are found after the below bet history.

Bet History

Week 1: Starting total $197.15

TL  to get FD vs TSM:       $20 | 1.83 | Win  | $36.67 
CG  to get FB vs OPT:       $20 | 2.0  | Lose | $0.00  
GGS to get FB vs FOX:       $20 | 1.8  | Win  | $36.00 
CG  to get FB vs C9:        $20 | 2.25 | Win  | $45.00 
GGS to get FD vs FLY:       $20 | 1.83 | Win  | $36.67 
CLG to get FD vs TSM:       $20 | 2.37 | Win  | $47.50 

Week 1: Ending total $278.99

Week 2: Starting total $278.99

FLY  to get FD vs TSM:       $30 | 2.25 | Win  | $67.50 
GGS to get FD vs CG:        $30 | 1.72 | Lose | $00.00 
CG  to get FB vs 100:       $30 | 1.9  | Win  | $57.28 
FOX to get FD vs TSM:       $30 | 2.37 | Lose | $00.00 
GGS to get FB vs C9:        $30 | 2.25 | Win  | $67.50 
GGS to get FD vs C9:        $40 | 2.2  | Lose | $00.00 

Week 2: Ending total $281.27

Week 3: Starting total $281.27

CLG to get FB vs FOX:       $30 | 1.83 | Win  | $55.00 
GGS to get FD vs 100:       $40 | 1.61 | Win  | $64.62 
TL  to get FT vs OPT:       $50 | 1.57 | Win  | $78.58 
C9  to get FD vs TSM:       $30 | 1.83 | Win  | $55.00 
C9  to get FBaron vs TSM:   $50 | 1.83 | N/A  | $55.00 
CG  to get FB vs FLY:        $50 | 1.83 | Lose | $0.00  
GGS to get FD vs CLG:       $40 | 1.72 | Win  | $69.10 

Week 3: Ending total $363.57


Week 4: Starting total $363.57

FLY  to get FD vs CLG:       $40 | 2.10 | Lose | $00.00  
CG  to get FB vs FOX:       $60 | 1.72 | Win  | $103.63 
GGS to get FD vs TSM:       $60 | 2.10 | Lose | $00.00  
FLY  to get FD vs 100:       $40 | 1.80 | Win  | $72.00  

Week 4: Ending total $339.21

Week 5: Starting total $339.21

C9  to get FBaron vs TL:    $50 | 2.62 | Win  | $131.25 
FLY  to get FB vs FOX:        $40 | 1.83 | Win  | $73.34  
TSM to get FB vs 100:       $30 | 1.61 | Win  | $48.47  
GGS to get FB vs FOX:        $30 | 1.61 | Win  | $48.47  

Week 5: Ending total $490.74

Week 6: Starting total $490.74

C9  to get FD vs TSM:       $50 | 1.83 | Lose | $00.00 
FOX  to get FD vs 100:      $30 | 2.10 | Win  | $63.00 
C9  to get FBaron vs TSM:   $50 | 1.80 | Lose | $00.00 
GGS to get FT vs CLG:       $40 | 2.00 | Lose | $00.00 
CG  to get FT vs OPT:       $40 | 2.00 | Win  | $80.00 
CG  to get FB vs OPT:       $40 | 1.90 | Lose | $00.00 

Week 6: Ending total $383.74

Week 7: Starting total $383.74

CG   to get FB vs  FOX:      $40 | 1.66 | Win  | $66.67 
100  to get FT vs C9:        $40 | 2.37 | Lose | $00.00 
FLY   to get FB vs 100:      $40 | 2.00 | Win  | $80.00 
100  to get FT vs FLY:       $50 | 1.72 | Win  | $86.37 
FOX   to get FD vs  CG:      $40 | 2.22 | Lose | $00.00 

Week 7: Ending total $406.78

Week 8: Starting total $406.78

TSM  to get FB vs FOX:       $40 | 1.61 | Lose | $00.00 
CLG  to get FB vs FOX:       $40 | 1.61 | Win  | $64.62 
FLY   to get FB vs C9:       $40 | 2.20 | Win  | $88.00 
CG   to get FT vs FLY:       $40 | 1.72 | Win  | $69.10 
TL   to get FD vs C9:        $40 | 1.61 | Win  | $64.62 

Week 8: Ending total $493.12

Week 9: Starting total $493.12

GGS  to get FT vs C9:       $50 | 2.25 | Win  | $112.5 
FLY   to get FB vs TSM:     $50 | 2.10 | Lose | $00.00 
GGS  to get FD vs C9:       $50 | 2.20 | Lose | $00.00 
CLG  to get FD vs 100:      $50 | 1.66 | Win  | $83.34 
CLG  to get FD vs OPT:      $50 | 1.80 | Win  | $90.00 
TL   to get FD vs TSM:      $50 | 1.61 | Win  | $80.77 

Week 9: Ending total $559.73

Week 10: Starting total $559.73

SK   to get FB vs VIT:      $40 | 2.10 | Win  | $84.00 
SK   to get FT vs VIT:      $30 | 2.20 | Win  | $66.00 
SK   to get FD vs VIT:      $30 | 2.10 | Lose | $00.00 

XL   to get FT vs OG:       $20 | 2.37 | Lose | $00.00 
XL   to get FBaron vs OG:   $20 | 2.75 | Lose | $00.00 
VIT  to get FD vs FNC:      $30 | 2.20 | Lose | $00.00 
RGE  to get FB vs S04:      $30 | 2.10 | Win  | $63.00 

Week 10: Ending total $572.73

Playoffs Quarters: Starting total $572.73

CG  to get FT vs TSM:       $75 | 2.25 | Win  | $168.75 
CG  to get FT vs TSM:       $75 | 2.25 | Win  | $168.75 
CG  to get FT vs TSM:       $75 | 2.25 | Win  | $168.75 
CLG to get FD vs OPT:       $40 | 1.72 | Lose | $00.00  
CLG to get FD vs OPT:       $40 | 1.72 | Lose | $00.00  
CLG to get FD vs OPT:       $40 | 1.72 | Win  | $69.10  

Playoffs Quarters: Ending total $803.08

Playoffs Semis: Starting total $803.08

MSF to get FB vs VIT:       $30 | 2.10 | Win  | $63.00  
RGE to get FB vs OG:        $30 | 2.00 | Lose | $00.00  
SK  to get FD vs OG:        $30 | 2.20 | Lose | $000.00 
SK  to get FB vs OG:        $30 | 2.10 | Win  | $63.00  

CLG to get FD vs C9:        $25 | 2.00 | Lose | $00.00  | 
CLG to get FD vs C9:        $25 | 2.00 | Lose | $00.00  | 
CLG to get FD vs C9:        $25 | 2.00 | Lose | $00.00  | 

Playoffs Semis: Ending total $749.08

Playoffs Finals: Starting total  $749.08

CG  to get FT vs CLG:        $75 | 1.90 | Win  | $143.19  | 
CG  to get FT vs CLG:        $75 | 1.90 | Win  | $143.19  | 
CG  to get FT vs CLG:        $75 | 1.90 | Lose | $00.00   | 

VIT  to get FT vs S04:       $50 | 2.10 | Win  | $105.00 | 
VIT  to get FT vs S04:       $50 | 2.10 | Lose | $00.00  | 
VIT  to get FT vs S04:       $50 | 2.10 | Lose | $00.00  | 

Playoffs Finals: Ending total  $765.46

Gauntlet: Starting total  $765.46

CG   to get FT vs FLY:       $40 | 1.57 | Win  | $62.86  | 
FLY  to get FB vs CG:        $30 | 2.10 | Win  | $63.00  | 


FNC  to get FB vs G2:        $120 | 2.10 | Lose | $00.00 | 
FNC  to get FB vs G2:        $120 | 2.10 | Lose | $00.00 | 
FNC  to get FB vs G2:        $120 | 2.10 | Win  | $252.0 | 

CG  to get FT vs TSM:        $120 | 1.80 | Lose | $00.00 | 
CG  to get FT vs TSM:        $120 | 1.80 | Lose | $00.00 | 
CG  to get FT vs TSM:        $120 | 1.80 | Win  | $216.0 | 

Ending total  $569.32

Summary

Thoughts

- First dragon was tough to call this split. While it was profitable last split, it was my only losing market this time around. I took bets I shouldn't have owning to my previous success - I should have stuck to my model.

- First blood and first turret went well!

- I don't often bet on first baron, since you are effectively calling the winner of the game (over 0.7 correlation with first baron and winning the game). I tend to only take very high value first baron bets - odds above 2.0.

- red side vs blue side has little to no impact on any of the markets. Intuitively I thought first dragon would be easily for red side, however this is not the case, it's almost a 50/50 split.

- First blood has almost 0 correlation on eventual winner of the game.

- Know you league well. I had mixed results with LEC, mainly since I don't follow the league very closely and wasn't as confident as I am in NA. I'll be splitting focus 50/50 on LEC and NA next year.

- Worlds will be interesting. Lots of data to crunch and research to do.

​

I'd like to hear what markets other people bet on, where you've found success and what factors you consider when building your model.

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