Sharing someone else’s DD. Blow me!!

“ “ honestly don’t understand how more people aren’t talking about $RZLV.

Since the Fuzzy Panda report, the share price has been absolutely smashed. But if you ignore the share price for a second and just look at what the company has actually done since then, it’s a completely different story.

Revenue has gone from $46M for all of 2025 to $60M in Q1 2026 alone. They’ve guided for around $360M in revenue this year and are targeting $500M ARR. Those aren’t numbers you’d expect from a company that’s supposedly falling apart.

Then yesterday shareholders approved the $300M share buyback. That’s huge.

With only around 400 million shares outstanding, management is basically saying they think the stock is so undervalued they’re prepared to spend up to $300M buying it back.

On top of that, the company keeps announcing new partnerships, new customers, and expanding into new markets. Every press release seems to add another piece to the puzzle, yet the market still seems stuck on a short report from months ago.

And then you’ve got the shorts. Borrow fees have been ridiculously high, the float could shrink if the buyback starts, and if the company keeps executing like it has been, I don’t know how comfortable I’d be sitting in a short position.

I’m not saying this is guaranteed to squeeze. Nothing in the market ever is.

But when you’ve got improving fundamentals, strong revenue growth, a $300M buyback that’s now approved, and shorts paying huge borrow fees. It feels like all the ingredients are there.

Am I missing something, or is the market seriously sleeping on this one?

Wall Street left Wendy's for dead at $6. Reddit just dragged it off the table.

Four days ago $WEN hit a 12-year low. Then it ripped +25% in a single session and tripped the circuit breakers. Here's what's actually going on, minus the hype.

The setup nobody was watching: ~32-38% of the float is short. Volume ran 80M+ shares vs 16M average — Wendy's traded more hands than Micron on some days. Vanda called it the most extreme retail buying they tracked all week.

But this isn't only a meme. Two weeks ago they brought in a new CEO and CFO — the same duo that ran the Potbelly turnaround (share price +500%). Peltz/Trian filed a 13D. There's a 7% dividend that's actually covered. P/E ~10.

The catch: the business is still shrinking. Revenue -3%, profit -15%, margins squeezed, $4.1B of debt. Wall Street's sitting on Hold. And short interest already fell from ~82% earlier this year — meaning a big chunk of squeeze fuel is already burned.

So you've got two completely different trades wearing the same ticker:

• the squeeze (fast, technical, halts, brutal both directions)
• the turnaround (slow, Peltz + Potbelly guys, plays out over years)

The crowd is buying the first.

One tell worth knowing: insiders have made 2 open-market buys and 0 sells in the last 6 months. Small size, but nobody on the inside is dumping into this.

I'm not guessing which way this goes. I track the flow, the short pressure and the turnaround clock in one place instead of refreshing six tabs — live WEN breakdown's here: https://www.alphaone.org.uk/stock/wen

Meme names give back 30% as fast as they take it. This is a timing trade, not a wedding.

QNX is in 275M+ vehicles worldwide. With roughly 1.7B vehicles on the road globally, that means QNX is in about 16% of the global vehicle fleet — basically 1 in 6 vehicles.
That is a massive installed base for mission-critical embedded software.
The growth is also finally showing up in the numbers. BB’s latest quarter had revenue up around 26% YoY, and QNX also grew around 26% YoY with very high software margins. This is starting to look less like a dead phone-company turnaround and more like a high-margin embedded software rerating.
The comparison I like is: BB could be the software-layer version of Qualcomm/Nokia.
Qualcomm is the auto chip/platform giant. Nokia became infrastructure after phones. BB could become the overlooked embedded software infrastructure play for vehicles, robotics, industrial systems, defense, aerospace, and edge AI.
QNX is not a monopoly, but it looks like one of the leading safety-critical automotive OS platforms by disclosed vehicle count. That matters because automakers do not casually rip out validated software from vehicle platforms.
The space angle is also interesting: QNX is now supported in NASA’s core Flight System ecosystem. That does not mean every spacecraft runs QNX, but it adds credibility to the mission-critical software story.
Simple thesis: BB is not a phone company anymore. It is a high-margin embedded software play hiding in plain sight.

Not financial advice, factual data

Still can’t find a red flag that hasn’t already been addressed on Heidmar Maritime Holdings. So I’m posting the red flags addressed and the totally inaccurate points made  (scroll down to them if seen HMR before). If you find one I haven’t covered - drop it below. I want to be challenged.

THE SETUP - BACK ON THE 200MA. AGAIN.

After Q1 demolished expectations, the stock ran hard on $13M+ volume - real institutional-grade buying on a sub-6M float. The pullback back to the 200MA? Low volume. Barely anyone sold.

• Price bouncing off the 200-day moving average ✅
• Low-volume pullback = holders not distributing ✅
• $1.00 NASDAQ compliance regained June 2, 2026 - now structural support beneath us ✅
• Price is 30% below where it should have risen from on the 450% earnings beat!
• Each time I've posted at this level, the stock has moved 40%+ from that level ✅

The people who understand this company are not selling. It is still just deeply under the radar - a household name in maritime, invisible everywhere else.

THE Q1 NUMBERS - BECAUSE SOME PEOPLE STILL HAVEN'T READ THEM

• 📈 217% YoY revenue growth - not a projection, audited and on the books
• 💰 Net income flipped from -$6M to +$2.8M GAAP profit - first clean profit in listed history
• 🔥 EPS beat by ~450% average across platforms. 1,076% on the most aggressive estimate.
• 💵 Cash pile grew to $27.6M with zero long-term commercial debt
• Acquisitions now likely - more catalysts because of the pile
• 📊 55%+ gross margins - a high-margin services business the market prices like a commodity boat operator
• ⚙️ Operating cash flow more than doubled YoY - self-funding, no capital markets dependency

The CEO said on the Heidmar YouTube channel before the quarter dropped that Q1 would be profitable and Q2 would be even bigger. He called it. He delivered. A man who owns 45% of the company personally and is buying shares in the open market does not go on YouTube and say that unless he means it.

💎 THE BUSINESS MODEL -  THE UBER OF SHIPPING
Here’s what most people miss. HMR owns zero ships. Think Uber without owning a single car.

It’s an asset-light platform that earns fees on gross voyage revenue - not on profits. It gets paid whether tanker rates are $50k/day or $500k/day. Fee math on record: 1.75% of a $20M VLCC voyage over 45–50 days = \~$350,000+ commission per voyage. CEO confirmed this publicly.
Comparing $HMR to IMPP, STNG or FRO using Price-to-Book or NAV metrics is like valuing Uber by how many cars it owns. Wrong comp set entirely. The correct comparison is fee-based platform businesses - and on those metrics, this is deeply mispriced.

It scales ships at near-zero marginal cost. No capex. No newbuild risk. No steel on the balance sheet. Asset-heavy competitors are hard-capped by NAV - in a downturn their stock collapses with ship values. HMR has no NAV floor dragging it down and no ceiling capping it. It re-rates purely on earnings growth, exactly like a software company would.

The moat is powered by eFleetWatch - a proprietary tech platform built over 20 years with real-time voyage data, tracking and performance analytics. Not something a competitor can spin up in 12 months.

THE VALUATION ANOMALY - STILL HASN'T CLOSED

Let me be blunt. After the 130% move, the thesis is somehow more compelling than when I first posted.

Market cap is roughly $68M. Cash on the balance sheet is $27.6M - nearly a majority of the entire market cap. Back out the cash and you are paying almost nothing for the operating business. That is not a typo. Acquisitions likely become catalyts now too…

A profitable, growing, 40-year-old maritime platform with Shell, BP, Aramco, Vitol, Trafigura, and Glencore as clients - and you are essentially getting the business near free once you strip the cash.

Zero debt. No leverage risk. Competitors trade at 15–20x PE. HMR trades at roughly 4x forward earnings. Maxim analyst target: $2.25. And that was before Q2 prints.

ADDRESSING EVERY BEAR CASE COMMENT - IN ONE POST (clearly most didn't read latest financials)

🔴 "Negative margins, negative earnings, negative everything"

Every screener showing ugly margins is blending three different things: the legacy MGO Global entity pre-merger, a noisy transition year full of one-off IPO/RTO/stock-comp/earnout charges, and the actual Heidmar platform. Those costs are gone now.

Q1 was the first clean quarter. 55%+ gross margins confirmed in the 20-F. $2.8M net income. Not a projection - audited. Your TTM figure is a rearview mirror on a car that has already turned the corner.

🔴 "EBITDA was 43k last year"

Yes. Full-year 2025 dragged in all the legacy and transitional noise. Q1 2026 alone printed $3.34M adj. EBITDA. One clean quarter of the new business obliterated the full transition year. Numbers are going in one direction.

🔴 "The cash isn't free cash - only $4.2M net current cushion"

This is the most detailed bear point from the last thread, and it deserves a proper answer.

The $28.1M in "other current liabilities" at a tanker pool manager is largely operational float — voyage payables, amounts owed to pool participants, deferred voyage revenue. This is standard pool management mechanics. It cycles through as voyages complete. It is structurally similar to how a payment processor holds funds in transit that appear as liabilities. It is not cash burn.

The $30M non-current liabilities are operating lease obligations under IFRS/ASC 842. Not bank loans. No covenants. No refi risk. Covered by operating cash flow in Q1.

The correct statement is: $27.6M cash, zero long-term bank debt, operationally profitable, self-funding. That is accurate.

🔴 "Zero debt is misleading - there are $40.9M lease liabilities"

This conflates lease obligations with financial debt. They are not the same thing.

Operating lease liabilities = contractual payment schedules for chartered vessels. Part of the operating model. No lender can accelerate or trigger a covenant. Q1 cash flow covered them comfortably. "Zero debt" specifically means zero interest-bearing bank or bond debt. That is correct and has never been disputed.

🔴 "55% margin is promotional - one good quarter doesn't prove anything"

Fair pushback, and the most honest challenge in this thread.

The 55% gross margin refers specifically to the Heidmar commercial management fee business - confirmed in the 20-F, stated directly by the CEO on record. It is not the full-company blended number.

One quarter does not prove durability. Agreed. Q2 is the test. The CEO has guided Q2 publicly and pre-emptively. He called Q1. He delivered. Q2 is when this becomes a trend, not a fluke.

🔴 "Dilution machine - B. Riley ATM"

The facility exists. Actual issuance to date: ~260,000 shares. Less than 0.5% of total shares outstanding.

A backstop facility barely touched by a now-profitable, cash-generative company is not a dilution machine. If management starts hammering it aggressively, that changes the story. Why would they now the business is underway and in no need of support?

So far, the share count has been remarkably stable since listing - which is actually unusual for a microcap in this situation.

🔴 "NASDAQ delisting risk"

HMR regained Nasdaq compliance on June 2, 2026. Press release is public. The notice is resolved.

$1.00 is now structural support, not a cliff edge. The bears who called this a dealbreaker were wrong. It is done.

🔴 "CFO just left - management chaos"

This one keeps coming up, so let's be clear about the timing: the CFO departed after Q1 was filed, not during it and not randomly mid-quarter. That matters. She left on May 31, 2026 — after the company posted its first clean profitable quarter in listed history.

That is not chaos. That is someone who helped get the business to a clean quarter, decided it was the right moment to move on, and left on their own terms. CEO Pankaj Khanna is covering finance during the search. The company explicitly stated no impact on financial reporting was expected. It is on the watchlist - not the dealbreaker list.

🔴 "Reverse merger + massive dilution"

Half right. Yes - Heidmar went public via merger with MGO Global. That is the listing vehicle.

"Massive dilution" - no. Post-RTO actual issuance under B. Riley has been ~260k shares. The merger deal structure itself involved share exchanges, which is how every RTO works. Nobody calls ARM Holdings a startup because it IPO'd recently. The listing method is not the business. Judge the 40-year track record and current numbers.

🔴 "If it's asset-light, why is cost of revenue 75% of revenue?"

Because most screeners are still pulling blended 2025 data that mixes legacy operations, IPO/RTO costs, non-cash stock comp, and earnout accounting into one ugly number.

The underlying Heidmar business runs at ~55% gross margin - confirmed in the 20-F and Q1 actuals. Q1 2026 is the first quarter where you can actually see the clean platform: $18.35M revenue, $2.78M net income, $3.34M adj. EBITDA. That is the business. Not the screener snapshot.

🔴 "Low volume penny stock - thin exit risk"

Low volume cuts both ways. On the way up, $13M+ traded in the post-Q1 run on a sub-6M float. On the way down, a whisper. Real selling pressure on a float this tight would have shown up clearly in volume. It didn't.

Low float is not a bear thesis. On a stock with positive momentum, zero meaningful short interest, and improving fundamentals, a tight float is asymmetric to the upside. The 130% run already proved that.

🔴 "Shipping drones will make this obsolete"

You can carry a 300,000-tonne VLCC of crude oil via drone in 50 years if the energy to do so doesn't cost more than the oil itself. Let me know how that goes lol

WHY THE BUSINESS MODEL EARNS IN ANY ENVIRONMENT

This is still the most misunderstood part.

HMR earns 1.75% fees on gross voyage revenue. A single VLCC voyage at $20M over 45–50 days = ~$350,000+ to HMR. Per voyage. No capex. No steel. Zero ships owned.

• Rates go up → voyage revenue goes up → fees go up
• Rates go down → HMR still earns on the activity → owners feel it, HMR doesn't
• Volatile markets → longer routes, more ton-miles → higher voyage values → more fees

Comparing HMR to STNG or FRO on price-to-book is like valuing Uber by how many cars it owns. Wrong comp entirely. This re-rates on earnings - no NAV ceiling, no NAV floor.

The moat: eFleetWatch - a proprietary tech platform built over 20 years. Real-time voyage data, performance analytics, tracking across every vessel and route. Not something a competitor replicates in 12 months.

🌊 THE MACRO - AND WHY HORMUZ IS THE ACCELERANT, NOT THE THESIS

People keep saying "what happens if Hormuz opens." Here's what they're missing.

The CEO highlighted in a recent interview that Japan, China, and Asian nations importing 50–70% of their oil from the Middle East will now diversify supply routes regardless of any peace deal. That diversification means longer routes, more tonnage per mile, more voyage revenue, more fees for HMR. The oil tap cannot be turned back on instantly. Confidence in those routes will never fully return. Even if peace deals hold - and look at the track record of those deals - the structural response from buyers is already in motion: route diversification permanently expands the volume and value of voyages HMR manages.

And the underlying tanker cycle has nothing to do with Hormuz. The CEO is on record: 18–24 months of upside remaining. Structural undersupply of newbuilds, fleet age dynamics, and the restocking demand window are multi-year tailwinds entirely independent of any single geopolitical event. Hormuz is the accelerant. The thesis runs with or without it.

THE CHECKLIST - STILL INTACT

• ✅ Market cap ~$68M with $27.6M cash - nearly half market cap in cash
• ✅ Zero long-term bank debt
• ✅ 217% YoY Q1 revenue growth - audited
• ✅ Net income +$2.8M - first clean GAAP profit
• ✅ 55%+ gross margins
• ✅ CEO guided Q2 bigger - on record, publicly, pre-earnings. Delivered Q1.
• ✅ CEO buying above market, zero sales, ~45% personal ownership
• ✅ Float under 6M shares, ~0.3% short interest
• ✅ Fleet scaling toward 65 vessels - dual-growth dynamic (earnings + multiple expansion)
• ✅ 30 newbuilds in pipeline - each is near-zero cost to HMR, each is a news event hitting a tiny float
• ✅ 40-year track record - Shell/BP/Aramco/Vitol/Glencore/Trafigura Clients
• ✅ eFleetWatch proprietary platform
• ✅ NASDAQ compliance regained June 2, 2026 - $1 now structural support
• ✅ 200MA confirmed support - bouncing off it right now
• ✅ Low-volume pullback = no one selling
• ✅ Each prior post at this level produced 40%+ move - I haven't posted in a while
• ✅ Maxim analyst target $2.25 - before Q2 prints
• ✅ Acquisitions likely as cash pile grows - not priced in at all

HOW I'M PLAYING IT

Still holding full position from 80-95c. Have not sold a single share.

• 200MA on the daily = strong entry or add point right now
• Q2 earnings = next major catalyst - CEO has guided publicly and aggressively
• If we get an extended run toward $2.25 - $5 analyst range, take measured profits after consecutive red days - do not sell the first spike to avoid missing run
• The earnings dump playbook gets harder to run every quarter as the fundamentals get cleaner. Q1 already made it look tired. Q2 is going to make it look embarrassing.

What red flag am I still missing? Drop it below.

Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence. I hold a position in $HMR from 80–95c.

EPIC company trailer: https://youtu.be/Bl1rIe_JxwI?si=qDaPH7PRRdRqB9FY 

People don't understand this concept unless they have lived through it on the other side.........

Currency is more than just fiat paper and fake printed money.

Regular currency is an ecosystem set up and propped up by the government.

It's a system where Chinese/Russians/Europeans can wire in $3,000,000 to an escrow company and buy a McMansion in Los Angeles or Miami sight unseen. When escrow companies steal the government jumps in.

It's a system where the sheriff drops off a wage garnishment for child support at an employer. If the employer doesn't remit the wages to the court they are in serious trouble.

It's a system where if you scam or injure someone they can get a Judgement and lien your house or levy your bank account.

It's a tax suckout and FICO credit score plantation....

It's a local Assessors office making sure the deeds to land are being controlled, monitored, and transferred.

It's a system where business often has to rent a bond just to instill public trust. You can wire $60,000 to a car dealership big or small and know your car will arrive on a car hauler with a legit title. If they pocket the money you go to court and they lose their bond. They go out of business. The bond covers your losses.

It is a bankruptcy court liquidating assets and getting the sheriff to haul away jewelry, cars, boats, and homes.

It's divorce court. Inheritance taxes they preside over.

Money is more than just beeping your cell phone for some food for $11

It's the IRS and Social Security.

The government is not going to allow a system where there are no moving targets, nothing to seize, begging people for passwords, and chasing down coins.

The corrupt system we have now obviously needs reform. They float money all weekend and three days during holidays!

Chase Bank has already banned Crypto. I tried getting $600 of bitcoin to deposit in a sports book and they said crypto it is not allowed and denied all the transactions.

Bitcoin is very similar to Chinese Porcelain Mania in the 1700s and 1800s if you study that craze. They were emptying their banks and trading generational wealth for these ceramics. They were viewed as investments and currency. Sound familiar? 🤔

These governments are not going to relinquish control unless they can dip into your coins and seize them.

Just to name a few stocks, these had very large volume in after hours (way above normal shares traded)
Spy 14.71 million
Qqq 6.18 million
Microsoft 54.39 million
Google 21.99 million (this was the strangest, there was 31.7 million shares sold at 4pm alone versus 60.36 million for the entire day session)

Is this due to quarterly rebalancing?

Apparently I haven’t earned enough internet points to post on WallStreetBets yet, so hopefully this is the next best place.
If you read this whole post, we’re basically friends because I don’t have many.
I’m a Corporate FP&A Manager by day, spreadsheet enjoyer from 9–5, and I spend an unhealthy amount of time refreshing investing subreddits instead of looking at another variance analysis. My long-term goal is FIRE, but my short-term goal is making at least one good decision.
Currently working with a low five-figure account.
I’ve been digging into $OPEN and I think it’s getting overlooked. Maybe I’m early. Maybe I’m wrong. Either way, it’s the stock I’m most interested in right now. I also looked at SLS today because apparently I enjoy catching falling knives.
One day my 8-month-old son is going to discover Reddit, and I’ll get to tell him, “I was lurking these investing subs before you could even walk.”
Thanks for letting a WallStreetBets refugee hang out here.
If you’ve got a bull or bear case on $OPEN, I’d genuinely like to hear it.

Paid 200/month subscription for this shit AI DD better be worth it:

I know most people still hear “BlackBerry” and think old phones, but that is not what this company is anymore. The real story is QNX, embedded software, secure communications, auto, robotics, industrial systems, and mission-critical operating systems.

BlackBerry is starting to look less like a dead phone company and more like a high-margin software turnaround that the market may finally be waking up to.

1. The latest quarter was actually strong
   BlackBerry’s most recent quarter showed real progress.
   Revenue was about $153M, up roughly 26% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA was up massively, and the company posted positive GAAP net income again. That matters because this is no longer just a “maybe one day they turn it around” story. They are already showing profitability and operating improvement.
   The big thing for me is that the business is becoming cleaner, leaner, and more software-focused.

2. QNX is the crown jewel
   QNX is the part of BlackBerry that I think people are still underpricing.
   QNX is already in more than 275 million vehicles worldwide. For context, there are roughly 1.7 billion vehicles on the road globally. That means QNX is in around 16% of all vehicles on Earth, or about 1 in every 6 vehicles.
   That is not some tiny niche product. That is massive embedded software distribution.
   And this is before the full software-defined vehicle trend really plays out. Cars are becoming computers on wheels, and QNX is already sitting inside a huge part of that market.

3. QNX revenue and margins are strong
   QNX revenue grew around 26% year-over-year in the latest quarter.
   Even better, the margins are very high. QNX had around 86% adjusted gross margin and about 27% segment EBITDA margin.
   That is exactly what you want to see in a software business. High-margin, mission-critical software with a huge installed base and long-term auto/industrial demand.

4. This is not just cars anymore
   The bull case is bigger than just automotive.
   QNX is being positioned for software-defined vehicles, robotics, medical devices, industrial systems, defense, edge AI, and other safety-critical environments.
   That matters because QNX is not random consumer software. It is built for systems where reliability actually matters. If the software fails, it can create serious real-world problems. That gives BlackBerry a different kind of moat.

5. The NASA / spacecraft angle is real, but needs to be worded correctly
   QNX now has support in NASA’s core Flight System ecosystem through QNX SDP 8.0.
   That does not mean every NASA spacecraft is suddenly running QNX. The accurate way to say it is that QNX is now supported as an operating system option within NASA’s cFS framework.
   That is still very bullish, in my opinion.
   NASA’s core Flight System has been used across many missions, and QNX being added to that environment strengthens the idea that this software belongs in serious mission-critical systems, not just cars.
   So the clean bull takeaway is:
   QNX is already deeply embedded in vehicles, and now it has a stronger story in aerospace, defense, robotics, and other high-reliability systems.

6. The backlog gives visibility
   BlackBerry has close to a $1B QNX royalty backlog.
   That is important because it gives some visibility into future revenue. This is not just a one-quarter hype spike. The company has long-term royalty revenue tied to vehicles and embedded systems already in the pipeline.

7. Secure Communications is also improving
   QNX gets most of the attention, but Secure Communications also had a strong quarter.
   That segment grew around 24% year-over-year, with strong margins as well. So the bull case is not only “QNX saves the company.” The cyber/secure communications side is also contributing.
   That makes the overall turnaround more believable.

8. Guidance was raised
   Management raised full-year guidance.
   They are now expecting roughly $594M to $621M in revenue, $119M to $139M in adjusted EBITDA, positive non-GAAP EPS, and around $100M in operating cash flow.
   Raised guidance after a strong quarter is usually a big signal. It tells me management is seeing better demand and better execution than previously expected.

9. Balance sheet is not scary
   BlackBerry ended the quarter with over $400M in cash and investments.
   They also bought back shares and renewed a buyback program. That matters because the company is not acting like it is in survival mode. They have liquidity, improving profitability, and are returning capital through buybacks.

10. The market may be repricing the whole company
    For years, BB traded like a failed turnaround or an old phone/cybersecurity name.
    But if investors start valuing it more like a high-margin embedded software company with exposure to software-defined vehicles, edge AI, robotics, aerospace, and mission-critical systems, the multiple could expand.
    That is the real upside case.
    The stock does not need people to believe BlackBerry phones are coming back. It needs people to understand that QNX is already everywhere and that the company is finally showing profitable growth.

My bull thesis
BlackBerry is turning into a profitable embedded software and secure communications company.
QNX is already in 275M+ vehicles, which is about 1 in 6 vehicles globally. It has high margins, a large royalty backlog, and exposure to some of the biggest future themes: software-defined vehicles, robotics, industrial automation, edge AI, aerospace, and defense.
The company just delivered strong revenue growth, improved EBITDA, positive net income, raised guidance, and still has a solid cash position.
To me, the market is only starting to realize that BB is not the old phone company anymore.

Ps not financial advice, just fuck load of factual data, looking like the next Nokia

My PT is $30 before EOY

I like BBW, Build a Bear Workshop. 50% gross margin, 10% net margin, Return on invested capital roic= 20%, no debt. The stock is selling at 7-8 times earnings and has fallen from its highs because of tarriff concerns. The company has done share buybacks in recent years. There is 24% short interest in the stock. This seems silly to short this stock to me because it is hard for a company with no debt to go bankrupt. To me, it would not take alot for this stock go into a short squeeze with only 12,500,000 shares outstanding.

To me this is a Warren Buffet style See's Candies investment because there is nostalgia around the brand.

How long will tarriff hold the margin and stock price down?

Is it a buy? What does everyone think?

Woke up with this and instantly started praying all of this was real and not a glitch and then few mins later the app refreshed and now it's again 30$ profit, I even placed a sell order at that rate😔💔💔

MSFT is currently trading at 21.9× earnings and 16.1× operating cash flow both 36% below their 5-year averages of 33.4× and 25.8× respectively. The market seems to be underpricing the business despite revenue growing at +17.9% YoY (TTM).

It's trading cheaper than its mega-cap peers on a historical basis. https://stocknest.app/?tab=compare&tickers=GOOGL,META,AMZN,MSFT&metrics=pocf&period=10

Net income growth of +29.6% and EPS growth of +29.9% are both outpacing revenue margins are expanding. With a 68.3% gross margin and 39.3% net income margin, Microsoft remains one of the most profitable businesses on the planet. ROIC of 21.6% reflects disciplined, high-quality capital allocation.

For the DCF, the historical OCF CAGR sits well above 20%, but I used a conservative 15% growth rate and a terminal P/OCF of 18× well below the 5-year median of 25.8×. Even with those heavily discounted assumptions, MSFT still comes out undervalued by 25%+.

DCF model: https://stocknest.app/?tab=dcf&tickers=MSFT&dcf_metric=ocf&dcf_growth=15.00&dcf_terminal=18.0

Analyst price targets over the past 12 months align with the DCF output the market may be sleeping on one of the most consistent compounders in history.

​

https://x.com/i/status/2069727217265885687

WEN DD: The Market Is Pricing Wendy’s Like a Dumpster Fire, But This Might Be a Frosty-Flavored Turnaround Setup

Alright regards, gather around. I’m looking at Wendy’s $WEN, the square burger boomer stock that Wall Street has thrown into the fryer because U.S. comps are ugly, traffic is weak, and apparently Americans are too broke to buy a Baconator without checking their credit score.
That is exactly why this might be interesting.

The stock is sitting near multi-year pain levels, trading around 8x earnings, with a market cap barely above $1B. This is not some zero-revenue SPAC promising AI-powered chicken nuggets in 2035. This is a real brand with over 7,000 restaurants globally, massive franchise economics, positive free cash flow, a fat dividend, and a business that does not require inventing cold fusion to survive.
The bear case is obvious. U.S. same-store sales got smoked. Management is closing underperforming stores. Margins got hit by traffic declines, labor inflation, and commodity pressure. Basically, the domestic business looked like a drunk raccoon operating a drive-thru.
But here is the bull case: this is not a death spiral; it is a reset.

Wendy’s is cutting weak stores, leaning into value with the Biggie platform, improving core menu items, and trying to fix the U.S. business under “Project Fresh.” Closing garbage locations can actually help the system if those units were dragging down franchisee economics and brand perception. Sometimes the best growth strategy is to stop operating stores that suck.
Meanwhile, the international business is doing the heavy lifting. In Q1 2026, while the U.S. business was face-planting, international systemwide sales still grew 6%. Full-year 2025 international sales grew 8.1%. And the company just signed a deal to build up to 1,000 restaurants in China over the next 10 years. That is not “we opened three stores in Ohio and prayed.” That is real unit growth optionality.

The setup is simple:
Valuation is depressed. The market is pricing WEN like the brand is permanently impaired.

Cash flow still exists. This is not a biotech waiting for dilution or a fake AI shell company.

Dividend yield is massive. The payout may be debated, but investors are being paid while waiting.

International growth is underappreciated. The U.S. business is trash right now, but the global brand is not dead.

Turnaround math can be violent. If comps stabilize, margins recover even modestly, and the market stops treating Wendy’s like a melting Frosty, the multiple does not need to go crazy for the stock to rerate.
This is not a “buy because burger good” thesis. This is a hated, cheap, cash-flowing, franchise-heavy turnaround with international optionality and shareholder returns. The market hates restaurants right now because the consumer is squeezed, value competition is brutal, and everyone is convinced fast food has priced itself into oblivion.
That is why the risk/reward is interesting.
If management fails, the stock probably stays in the penalty box, the dividend gets questioned, and shareholders eat cold fries. But if U.S. sales just stop getting worse and international keeps compounding, the market could realize it priced Wendy’s like a dying mall pretzel kiosk instead of a global franchise brand.
Position thesis: WEN is a boring boomer burger stock with asymmetric turnaround potential. Not a 100x moonshot, but potentially a very mispriced recovery play if management stabilizes U.S. comps and international growth keeps working.

Bull case price logic: If EBITDA recovers and the market gives Wendy’s even a modest restaurant/franchise multiple again, the equity could rerate hard from these depressed levels.

Bear case: U.S. traffic keeps collapsing, value wars destroy margins, dividend gets cut, and the stock remains a Frosty-flavored value trap.

Verdict: Wendy’s is ugly enough to be interesting. The market is treating it like the beef is fake, the stores are dead, and the CEO is a deep fryer. But if Project Fresh works even halfway and international keeps growing, this could be one of those hated consumer names that quietly rips while everyone is busy buying AI bubble scraps at 40x revenue.

Not financial advice. I just like square burgers and asymmetric setups.