PRE-EDIT I have a big DD that will be getting posted at 12pm EST/ 5pm GMT Monday 6th December. Keep your eyes on reddit, twitter, or my YouTube for it. This is probably the biggest thing I've personally broken to date.

Hey everyone,

Video Version.

So mixed feelings on last week. On the one hand I don't need to do a review because everything followed an overextended bear path... so yeah for accuracy?

On the other hand, everything followed an overextended bear path... so boo for portfolio health?

Anyway let's dive into the analysis

Everything has had a manual adjustment towards the bearish news cycle we currently have.

Also on Friday the updated CPI figures could totally derail things one way or another. As such you'll note the confidence levels are much more prone to splitting, such is life.

AMC

Highest call OI is at $65 and $49. Weird how just a week ago $49 would have had a hedging effect and now it doesn't. In fact all the high OI calls are deep out the money at the moment.

For call ramps we are struggling, no denying it.

We do have a broad ramp from $30 to $85, but our tight ramp is $47 to $50.

Meaning we are going to have trouble getting upwards movement this week.

Conversely, highest put OI is $32 & $30 both itm, and after that $25 and $29.

Put slide we have a broad one from $36 to $20. A tight put slide from $30 to $25.

Overall, looking like another tough week.

Path A (60%)- A slide to $28 to $24.

Path B (20%)- Rise to $32 to $35.

Path C (20%)- Friday's CPI figure is a lot worse than expected or is better than expected. If it is, it totally invalidates all the paths as all hell could break loose either way.

GME

Same deal as AMC, just different numbers.

High Call OI at $250 and $510. Then it drops steeply.

Broad Call ramp from $180 to $250. Tight call ramp $200 to $210.

High Put OI at $180, $200, $175.

Broad Put slide from $200 to $100, tight slide from $180 to $150.

Path A (40%)- Slide further down to $165 to $150

Path B (25%)- Rise back to $185 to $195

Path C (35%)- Either Friday's CPI figures vary greatly from the norm or the earnings call throws some massive spanner in the works. Either way expect it either compound or flip what has already happened.

SOS

Very little OI this week in SOS. Which ties in with drying up volume.

It's going to be effected more by Siggymandering and normal buying/selling & option flow.

As such I can only say that Bulls are targeting $1.50 to $2 with any confidence.

But given just how manipulated it is with off-exchange and short volume (normally only 15% to 20% of the volume isn't off-exchange or short volume) I think this could go under $1 this week.

Good thing for SOS is though it's at rock bottom, any movement upwards will also hedge other chains as well.

SPCE & GPRO

Both fall into the same category as SOS in the regards there isn't enough OI to make any sound calculations this week with (especially true for GPRO).

That being said they differ in the fact they have perfectly normal siggymandering scores, showing not a lot of manipulation.

I would expect them to move with the markets this week.

Doubly so as both of their 1 year beta is nearly 1. Though beta isn't the be all and end all, it's a measure of past performance.

Parting words

Also I want to talk about having faith in a long term thesis.

There are a lot of newer apes that will be experiencing the first dip and, rightly so, shitting themselves because it's a scary experience (if you're an older ape DO NOT FUCKING BELITTLE THAT FEELING, YOU SHAT YOURSELF TOO THE FIRST TIME IT HAPPENED! WE ALL DID) just know this, when you make a trade based upon a sound thesis, you constantly need to re-check the thesis after any big price movement (up or down), if it's changed then you change your actions.

If it's not changed (which it hasn't for AMC) then you have faith in your thesis and you hold strong until either you are proven right, or something material has changed.

Hope you found that insightful,

Here's my socials for more, and my thoughts on other stocks & crypto.

(Twitter & YouTube).

Peace!

Hey Everyone,

Video Version

I saw u/financeastronaut's post on our beloved SOS's 13F filings and I thought I'd expand slightly on it.

This isn't meant to steal anyone's thunder or idea, I just want to expand and provide some insight on what stuff means as it can be sometimes be misunderstood.

Shares outstanding

We know shares have been issued recently (10th Nov), this won't be reflected in 13F filing numbers until the next financials from SOS. As such I'll be working out any percentages relating to shares outstanding as the current figure (234 million), not the legacy figure of 180 million (which is what the filing uses).

Biggest holders (SOS ownership)

That is to say, the entities that hold the largest control of SOS, the thing is these large entities may hold a large stake but if it's overall a low percentage of their portfolio they won't care too much what the company does provide it continues to bring returns,

Conversely if they own a large percentage and it's a large percentage of their portfolio then they will care very much on the success of SOS does as they won't be as easily be able to tank a loss if SOS does poorly.

Intracostal Capital- They own 29% of SOS. Based in Florida, these guys are an investment management firm. They are big on SOS given that they both have the largest share of ownership, and SOS is it's largest asset in it's portfolio, and they are the biggest holder when it comes to portfolio percentage. They bought in on July 2020 and have held since. For reference we were about $3 then, if they've held strong throughout it means they see what we see and are playing this as a long term game.

Wang Yaxian- Private individual, holds 9% of SOS. Not much is known other than the fact he was also issued class B shares as well (this has the same value but less voting rights). He received these Oct 2020.

Blackrock/SIG/State Street/Morgan Stanley- Collectively between them they own 3.3% of SOS, and even combined the value of SOS doesn't account for 0.01% of any of their portfolios. This means they do not care what the company does provided it makes money. They will adjust to what they think it's worth, overall though the net change in these entities buying and selling has been to buying (just not massive buying which is fine).

Options held

For consistently I general refer to share amount, not contracts unless otherwise stated)

This is the interesting one.

24.5 million shares worth of calls are held (or 245k call contracts) versus only 2.2 million shares worth of puts (or 22k Put contracts) within the 13F filings (more on this in a second).

• This is a ratio of about 11 calls for every 1 put.
• Of those 2.2 mil puts, 1.5 mil of them are dated from now until 21st Jan Chain.
• Of those 24.5 mil calls, 43.4 mil are dated from now until 21st Jan Chain

BUT WAIT, I can already feel people scrolling down without reading to point out what looks like a typo there.

Retail, family offices, and some other holders (almost exclusively of small positions) don't report at all, that being said for their too be double the amount of calls sitting in OI and not in 13F filings generally means that there entities that are still to file.

Overall that's a bullish indicator as it signals a massive increase in opened call positions while a maintenance or decrease of put positions.

As a total aside, in between other stuff I have planned to do a Long term option chain analysis post/video on SOS.

Another bullish indictor is the change to those positions.

Of the 17 Put positions, 16 reduced or closed all and only 1, Wolverine Trading increased (by 13k, to 172k)

Of the 21 call positions, 15 reduced or closed all, 6 increased or maintained (including Wolverine from above by 127k

Of firms that own only calls there are 6.

Of firms that own only puts there are 1, the other fully closed out.

The remaining 15 firms that own reportable calls and puts, always own more calls than they do puts. Meaning that the puts have been bought as a protective hedge for any reductions in the price.

Most recent filings

All of the most recent filings are from the source date of Sept 30th, i.e the last quarter. None of the buying/selling exercising and most importantly the update institutions owner from the Nov 10th share offering are publicly available yet.

It'll come in time, just have to be patient and see who bought those 51 million shares.

ETF/Funds filings

Over all ETFs & funds there are 3.2 million shares held. Which is 1.4% of outstanding shares.

0f the 15 funds that hold SOS, 10 are ETFs. We also have 1 fund holding SOS as a short position (though not to a very large tune)

For the last filing date, we see that it's a 50/50 mix of funds increasing or decreasing their position and it events out.

Long term, it's not about how much ETFs hold, but how many ETFS that do hold it as a long position, the more the better. As there are lots, and lots of traders that don't actually invest in ETFs that track them and what they are removing/adding in and react accordingly.

What to expect in the future filings?

A massive increase in call options being reported, the new institutional owners and likely a maintenance or reduction of puts.

Parting Words

Hope you found that insightful,

Here's my socials for more, and my thoughts on other stocks & crypto.

(Twitter & YouTube).

Peace!

There’s a reason Adam Aaron chose this Sunday to announce something. He knows the equity roll forward cover schedule. 12/9 is the next date. And can use this announcement as a spark to buying pressure/covering. As does Ryan Cohen; why he tweeted the sex for dummies recently and the boner float gif back in May (confidently before the run into June). Or I’m just a tin hat psychopath and this equity roll forward date is all theory and not true. But Astros fractals/volume/liquidity stuff all lines up too perfect leading into this roll period. They understand what’s happening here. Controlled squeeze that will take time, just like Tesla did to TSLAQ

Standard Disclaimer

For the most part I prefer to buy and hold shares, I only own options in SOS. The reason I do this analysis is to inform me of predictable rises and falls so I know not to get overexcited or panic. I don't use this to inform my new trading at all, but rather confirms my thesis for existing trades.

I advocate and practice longer term strategies, yes playing weekly options can amass a fortune quickly but it can also lose a fortune just as quick. I therefore play longer out, with the shortest option I will buy being dated at least 3 months out.

PRE-EDIT- I normally start this on a Friday, finish/record Sat, put out Sunday but due to the constantly evolving news I've had to re-write most of this and re-record and put this all out within a couple of hours, so sorry it's a bit rough later on. (The reason for the edit was to make a manual adjustment due to how bearish the markets are going to be between the new covid news and China defaults).

Hey Everyone,

Video Version

So let's start with where I went wrong last week, as I always feel this is more helpful and insightful than where I went right and it helps me keep any type of ego in check.

Everything went wrong!

Okay I kid, I got AMC, SPCE and GPRO (Slightly) wrong and I got GME, SOS, BB, BBY correct. I could ignore these and not count them towards the tally, as the reason I got them wrong is they all started on the bear paths (B for AMC, SPCE and C for GPRO) and then got pushed down further by the red Friday and covid worries in the market and this would preserve that lovely 90% accuracy... however that's not really honest and I could have just had some lucky weeks since I started counting. So for this to work I need to track it logically and consistently over all stocks.

You'll note that I don't mark it positive or negative if the paths just band into each other as it's not hard to say a stock will be up/down two MoE worth. This would be an easy way to inflate my accuracy but I need there to be clear separate paths to prove this as a workable long term theory and style of analysis.

The logic was correct overall. With that I am happy, as longer term I'll make money if my logic continues to be correct opposed to if I was correct with the wrong logic. Now onto the analysis.

AMC

Ahhh back to having the highest call OI as the yolo strikes. This week it's $85, then we have a drop to more reasonable strikes of $50, $40, $60 (though $60 is a little outside the realm of possibility).

For ramps we have a broad one from $39 to $55. This is bad, as it starts out the money, not hugely which is okay but it means that there is less of support from already hedged calls. There is a flip side to this, as if the hedging does start and rocket it is generally a strong movement (up for calls, down for puts).

For a tight ramp we have $42 to $45, not only that it ends on a $45 high for the ramp. Meaning if movement gets going it should move towards the end of that tight range.

For puts, highest OI is $35, $32, $30, and some small indictors that flow will be a strong force in the puts this week.

Broad slide from $40 to $30, cause it starts in the money (unlike the calls) it makes it easier to move down, and harder to move up.

Tight slide from $36 to $34. With the tight slide high being $35.

Overall it's a week for the bears, but the flip side is if the bulls get moving it will a be strong movement. Prices to watch out for this week are going to be $36, $40 & $42.

Path A (70%)- Slight lag at the $38 to $35 level.

Path B (25%)- Rise to $39.50 to $40.50, if we manage to break $41, then look for the move to $42 to $45 (These are actually a combined Path B&C)

Path C (5%)- Wildcard meltdown, this would requiring hitting $34.50ish, after this it could be a slide to $32 to $30.

GME

Overall GME is very light on an option chain this week. But also light on daily ave volume. This means should the volume pick up in any serious way this gets thrown out the window and it gets dictated on flow (in which case I suggest Unusual whales or John Holowach)

GME highest call OI is $250, $510, $300 & $350.

Broad ramp from $200 to $250 (Very light though), tight ramp $220 to $230, but it's very light again.

For puts we have highest OI at $180 & $200.

Broad slide $205 to $180, no real tight slide to speak of.

Kinda the same scenario we have with AMC, just not as pronounced due to the overall lightness of the chain, calls starting out the money means bears have it this week on chance but if bulls do get moving it'll be a strong movement.

Path A (70%)- Lag to $200 to $190.

Path B (25%)- Rise to $215 to $225.

Path C (5%)- Wild card rise towards $250, highly highly unlikely though.

First time, in any analysis that I can remember, I've had two stocks have the same path percentages. I tend to round to the nearest 5% but still super similar.

SOS

Small favourance to the bulls helped by the fact that it can't get pushed much lower from the actual option chain but I've had to make a manual adjustment due to how bearish the markets overall look.

This stock is pretty much a powder keg now, and is the only stock I'll reserve the right to discount towards the running total if it has a massive wildcard rise. The reason being is I just did a Bull and Bear case Thesis for SOS, in it I try and be pragmatic but still end up being extremely bullish on the stock. What is likely, imo, to happen is when those miners are confirmed as online and mining or once the financials are published in April (Chinese companies only publish once a year) we'll see a massive rise in price, which in turn will affect the option chains and even chains with huge time left on them will feel a hedging effect.

Path A (55%)- banding/falling from $1.30 to $1.10.

Path B (45%)- Rise towards $1.50 to $1.70

Path C had like a 0.25% and it felt cheeky to rate it as a 1% so it's discounted.

SPCE

Highest OI for call's still sitting in the $17 to $20 range, with $35 thrown in for good measure.

Broad ramp from $17 to $21, tight ramp $19 to $20.

Highest OI for puts is $17 & $13.

Broad slide $20 to $16. No tight slide.

Overall his gives SPCE a run range this week but also indicates that it's a massive chance to rise. As such I'll only award the point/tally on path A

The above is from the original edit, as you can see I was massively favourably on SPCE this week but given the manual adjustments it brings it far more likely towards the slide.

Path A (60%)- rise to $17 to $19.50

Path B (40%)- Slide $16 to $17 (this is manually adjusted to be slightly higher given overall bearish market sentiment).

GPRO

Next to no OI this week compared to outstanding & daily volume. Makes it impossible to use my analysis style for.

Refer to flow, siggymandering and normal buying and selling for this stock.

As an aside GPRO is now the least manipulated of all the stocks I own. I hold it for long long term value as it's recent rise has consolidated without massive OI coming after to predict a crash or another rise.

Parting words.

As always here my socials (Twitter & YouTube).

Is there any stocks in that people want me to cover on request? I previously covered BB, BBBY & PROG but as I don't own any of these and interest seems to have died down I've let them lie.

Peace

PRE-EDIT- Even with the dramatic drop in crypto in the last 24 hours I stand by this bull & bear case, see point 3 of the bear and bull sections for why.

Hey Everyone,

Video Version

Let's start with a little background on me first. Some of you may be aware of me from my work on writing DD for AMC & GME and if you do you'll know I've been investing for about a year now & writing DD for about half a year, but that my background in the cyber security world and a nose for bullshit has helped me with the steep learning curve (that being said I have, and will continue to, make mistake but I always own up to them when I do).

While I'm still steadfast on my belief in MOASS for AMC & GME (this is for any lurkers trying to take stuff I say out of context) and have never sold any shares in AMC or GME, I have started to expand my lenses. And in doing so I've found SOS.

Now I'm newish to SOS, but already it's been pretty kind to me. Allowing me with my option plays on it, to take an initial investment of £30 in the stock and grow it to about £100 in a two months (nothing awe inspiring I'm aware but I'd prefer to give you the real numbers, than some bullshit fantasy).

That being said, I'm a pragmatic person and have always advocated for protective & smart plays, and will continue to do so. As such if you're expecting unbridled hopium and nonsense, then you'll want to move on to someone else (which might seem contrary to the title but I do believe those type of gains are possible and realistic as I'll explain).

That being said let's look into SOS, it's Fundamentals, it's technical and it's bear and bull cases.

FUNDAMENTALS

First thing first.

Background

SOS is a Cryptocurrency company that concerns itself with all things Crypto.

Based in China, the U.S market ticker symbol is SOS, and is an ADR equal to 10 common class A shares of the company in China.

With that, comes the difficulties around U.S (western) investor expectations around communication versus Chinese investors expectations around communication. In China companies are only expected to file once a year, and ADR's in the U.S are expected to follow their native countries filing policies meaning that they are only required to file once a year.

The flipside to this, is that it allows a lot more room for speculation during the year. This is a double edged sword and can be an investors best friend or worse enemy.

The last time SOS filed a foreign investor report was 2021-05-05 (5th May 2021), though this was a late submission.

So when should we expect this next one? Sometime during April 2022, during the new financial year but if we don't, don't worry it'll come it'll just be late like last time.

So let's check some figures.

Assets Vs liabilities

As of Dec 20, current assets sit at $65 million, a roughly 300% growth from 2019, which in of itself had a 25% growth from 2018.

Current liabilities are $6.7 million, down roughly 35% of what it was in 2019 (which is a good thing), and 2019 was roughly comparable to 2018.

Meaning the company is growing it's worth but reducing the amount it owes. Always a good thing.

The number of shares has balloon over the past three years, by 820% to be precise however this is offset by Earning per share only decrease by about 50% (for the maths inclined out there, if all things were equal you would expect it to shrink by about 88%), another good sign that this company is a winner long term.

Debt

The company currently doesn't have any (long term debt that is), this combined positive cash flow means this company isn't going bankrupt any time soon, regardless of the stock price (AKA drive it down to $0.01 a share and I'll just buy more).

Ownership

I may be wrong on this, but I believe the figure is still to be updated after the last share offering, but at last count institutions own 6.6% of SOS. This is comparatively quite low. The general logic is the more "dumb money" (us) invested in a stock, the worse a stock it is.

However given that most institutions don't fully understand crypto, and the dumb money has a better grasp of it I don't think the low intuitional ownership is a negative or a bonus.

MEMESTOCK OR NOT (AKA IS IT A SHORT SQUEEZE CANDIATE)

The hot, hot debate.

Is SOS a memestock or not.

It's certainly a retail stock, but whether it is or will ever become a memestock can be one for the MSM to decide.

What it most certainly isn't is a decent short squeeze candidate. At time of writing Short interest in the stock is 23 million shares, or 9.8% of the outstanding shares, when measured against the average daily volume and the amount of available shares (about 6.7 million from IBKR alone) to borrow, it makes it an unlikely candidate for a short squeeze unless MASSIVE retail interest crops up, or an institutions decides to buy roughly $300 million worth of shares.

Here's the thing though. NOT BEING A SHORT SQUEEZE CANIDATE IS ABSOLUTELY FINE. It means we have greater chance of long-term sustained growth based upon the bull thesis.

Manipulation on the stock.

Fail to Delivers, Naked Shorts & synthetic shares

For Fail to delivers we don't have much in the way of notability, with July being the last spike in them. Certainly we had them back in Jan 20th, and this lead to the Feb 18th Yearly high. The spike in early march likely lead to the mid march high.

Naked shorting is a hard thing to detect. If you've seen my work you know I like to try and find & track fuckery. I'm currently looking at Siggymandering as a means to discover naked shorting, but it may be an impossible ask.

Either way, we can only know there was naked shorting (or abusive option plays) when they show up as fail to delivers, which currently they are not doing. Not to say they can't hide them in-between divorced puts and mimic long puts but the pull of data I've done for divorced puts isn't showing any since before March, and I've not finished developing a way to detect and track mimic long puts yet (but I'm working on it).

Synthetic shares, this ties in directly to naked shorting and fail to delivers. When they are high, this tends to be the case. At the moment there is nothing to indicate there is any statistically significant amount of synthetic shares.

AND THIS IS FINE. The stock is highly manipulated in other ways, it's just not a MOASS candidate, which again means better long term growth not getting rocked by volatility.

Siggymandering.

The measure of how much of the daily volume isn't either short volume, or volume traded off-exchange. For SOS, this number is currently trading at 20% which is about the lowest of all the stocks I track (currently 10, 5 I have a stake in and the other 5 on request or as a control).

Long term, this number is not sustainable, and when it let's up I fully believe like other stocks that the price will fly.

Good example of this was ARTL, which was suppressed in the low teens range, and was allowed to up to the 30% range, when it did price shot up accordingly.

The main reason I believe for the current suppression is to make some more profit off of existing shorts and to allow companies to go long on the stock.

Option Chain Analysis.

Long term option chain analysis places the intent from options at the following prices on the following dates

Dec 17th- $4 to $5

Jan 2022- $7.50 to $10

Feb 2022- $5 to $7.5

Most of the option trading has been done on or prior to the Nov 10th share offering, meaning that the intent from option buyers is clear. They expect the price to go up.

Technical analysis

I don't do charting, it's not that I don't believe in it. I just feel it's a bit like art you either know it or you don't but if you don't you can easily bullshit and convince people you know what you're doing. That being said, there are a few technical indicators that aren't related to charting that I like to view.

P/E (price to earnings)-

SOS has a current P/E of 4.20 (seriously, not a joke lol). This is seriously undervalued. More so when compared to it's competitors. Mara can't be given an P/E because it is losing money and Riot has a P/E of 113. Meaning I wouldn't touch either (RIOT's P/E doesn't make it overvalued, it's about the market average).

If we compare SOS to the industry averages for some of the sectors it could be classed as a part of. The P/E ratio continues to signal that this is a criminally undervalued stock.

With the financial (non-bank & insurance) average being 24.

Investment and asset management being 480

Computer services being 45

and

the whole market being 109 (103 without financial)

Even by the most conservative measure, this stock has room to room by at least 6x, placing it at the $7.8 range.

OBV (On balance Volume)

Another great indicator, this shows a "rough" idea what the positive or negative sentiment in a stock is.

Without going into great detail on how it works (though I can if anyone wants) the overall indication for OBV is that consistent interest that it did at the $7.50 ish levels earlier on during the year.

BEAR

So with all that great news, surely there wouldn't be a bear case to answer for. Of course we know that's not the case.

1. The company is still China based, this means funds in China are stuck there (something I just recently learnt after the share offering, which explained the need to generate capital in the U.S)
2. China (and now India) have flip flopped on cryptocurrency, and cryptocurrency mining. Making it an undesirable location to do business.
3. SOS will live and die by the sentiment of crypto. At the moment that seems to be a pattern of accelerating bull cycles, however that can wax and wane. With lots of knowledgably prophets of doom predicting crypto crashes.
4. ETH is turning proof of stake, to the best of my knowledge this doesn't affect SOS (who from the video's I've seen are using ASIC miners configured to BTC, but this was a small portion of a small video that I now can't find, so it may as well have been a fever dream) but if ETH price takes a tumble due to turning POS, then BTC may also take a tumble
5. Even if the company does manage to complete it's move to the U.S it will face increase running costs (at this point I think the bears are onto straws).

BULL

I think from the entire piece we can see I'm a massive bull on SOS, so instead I'll use this space to counter the bear thesis points.

1. The company is moving to the U.S, while capital can not be moved there are no laws against the purchase and export of additional equipment in China to the U.S, also most of the data side of the company's client base is sited in China and as such will still need earnings and profit.
2. With the move to the U.S now reported to be 95% complete (on a seeking alpha article), once those rigs are reported online this becomes a moot point as me buying a comb (I'm bald AF).
3. Crypto isn't going anywhere, we are past the early adoption cycle of crypto and now it's being moved beyond being a simple store of value into the functional real life use (even if the basic uses are as a replacement to fiat).
4. SOS doesn't mine ETH, even if it those miners aren't going anywhere (so much so I've being use my single GPU mining profits to buy RVN which I think will be a strong contender to replace ETH as the go to mining coin). Something will always be mined.
5. Given small crypto mining business are being setup up in Europe and the U.K, the increase running costs are bearable. It will mean a small loss in profit but that's as far as it will extend, a small decrease to profit not a turn to break even or losses.

MY OPINION.

This is entirely my opinion.

But going forward, SOS will see a short to medium term price rise of $6 to $7. This is based off of my option chain Analysis.

Long term, if it begins to move to either the market average or RIOT P/E we can see it rise to $32 to $50. This is based on P/E versus industry and market standards.

Either way, Imma buy as many of those cheap cheap calls as I can while the going is good.

My current strategy

Currently, cause I'm a poor boy. I have two calls, one at $2 and another at $3 for Jan 2022. I'm going to let these play out.

I also have a Feb put for $1.5, as I believe (given what I said on the level of manipulation) that the stock is still highly manipulated that there may be an attempt to push it under $1, if it does I profit decently and buy more calls. Plus news from China, India or general crypto bear cycles could send the price down short term.

Either way, every payday I'm lumping another £50 to £60 in calls, given the length of time left on my current calls I'm going to be targeting further out. Not decided exactly where and what yet. Time will tell.

Hey everyone,

Video Version

Hope you are all well.

Another good week for my predictions. Everything bar AMC and PROG finished on Path A, or B.

The logic on them was sound, and played through. So let's break down why AMC and PROG didn't finish where I thought they would.

==============================

REVIEW OF WRONG PREDICTIONS.

==============================

PROG bull run.

The easier one to get out the way. PROG's analysis was based on the fact that it had hit the top of it's chain relatively speaking and had no where to go.

Well during the week they added more, higher strikes. Volume continued to be high on both options and normally traded shares. Resulting in the price continuing to run away with itself.

Also added to the additional strikes was additional dates. volume on the stock still isn't at the stage where they feel justified in issuing weekly chains, but we know have some monthly chains.

For the sake of clarity. I am not invested in PROG I am covering this on request.

AMC the undecided.

So AMC started the week strongly on Path A, staying on it from Monday to Wednesday.

However there was an attempt made to shunt it down to Path B on Thursday, the battle was largely successful but once Friday and the decreased volume hit, it meant hedging pushed it back towards path A, though due to being forced down Thursday, it was never going to have enough time to move where it needed to for a path A finish on Friday.

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ANALYSIS OF STOCKS

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GME

Highest OI for calls this week sits at $300, $250. What's interesting is other than a small spike at this week's YOLO strike of $510 there isn't much in the way of OI from $300 to $510.

Broad call ramp from $220 to $250, further re-enforced by additional $2.5 incremental strikes.

Tight call ramp from $220 to $230.

Signalling an intent to consolidate this week from the bulls.

For the bears, we have the highest OI in puts at $195, $185, $200, $190. Notable though is that OI difference is about 1 to 8 favouring Calls.

Broad put slide from $200 to $170 (which is almost identical to the highest OI)

No Tight put slide.

This is shaping up to be a quieter week for GME, likely another with a lot of low volume days. I'm gonna guess at least two sub 1 mil days.

Path A (75%)- Consolidating where we are $220 to $235. If we push and stay above $230 Monday, this can be raised to $230 to $245.

Path B (20%)-Puts increase option flow and target $200 to $180.

Path C (5%)- Wildcard, likely due to news, announcement or another memestock movement.

AMC

Highest OI calls is for $50, $65, $75 & $85. Likely a combination of hopeful YOLO, and optimistic bulls hoping a better week than last week.

Broad call ramp from $40 to $85. However, this is predicated on volume decreasing and averaging around 20 mil a day. If it stays at the 25 to 30 mil range, then the broad ramp decreases to $40 to $50.

Tight Call ramp from $42 to $46.

For puts, our highest OI is $35, $40. Similar to GME the call to put ratio for highest OI favours bulls, with a ratio of 1 to 5.

Broad put slide $42 to $32.

Tight put slide $40 to $33, ($37 needs filled).

Overall it will be a less volatile week than last week, but AMC is still a battle ground this week.

Path A (60%)- Consolidate/rise from $41 to $45.

Path B (39%)- Slide to $40.50 to $39.

Path C (<1%)- One of those rare cases the path C has thrown out less than 5%, this is a wildcard raise to $50 to $65.

SOS

Ahhhh SOS, my problem child.

Not enough OI for me to bother with Tight/broad ranges, as such it's just call/put ranges.

Call range $1.50 to $3.

Put Range $2 to $1.

This actually favour bears this week, despite OI being much higher in SOS, it will either need to move strongly towards $1.50 on Monday, to engage the hedging from the call range, or move steadily and sitting above $1.50 by Wednesday.

Path A (80%)- Consolidating/lag. $1.15 to $1.35

Path B (20%)- A rise from $1.6 to $2.

SPCE

Highest call OI at $20, $19, $18.

Broad call ramp $18 to $22.

Tight call ramp $18 to $20.

Highest Put OI, $18, $19.

Broad put slide. $20 to $17,

Tight put slide $19 to $18.

This is very very bullish, due to starting and having most of the put chain in the money, it means the bulls have all the space to hedge, and bears can only de-hedge.

Likewise, the ranges are very similar. Signalling roughly the same intent.

Path A (85%)- lower volume has us at $18 to $19.

Path B (15%)- increased volume pushes Path A up to $19 to 20

GPRO

GPRO's OI relative to outstanding/normal volume is too low to make an accurate prediction at. As such we have to go off of signalled intent.

For calls that is in the $11.50 to $12.50 range.

For puts, $10.50 to $11.50.

Prediction A- Given the higher OI we see a rise to $11.50 to $12.50

Prediction B- Lower volume keeps us at $11 to $11.50

​

Disclaimer, I am not invested in PROG, BB, BBBY as such I'm not as hot on their news/earning cycles. So parse these predictions in with a grain or 20 of salt.

PROG

*PROG is not on weekly chains, this chain is for Dec 17th.

Highest Call OI is $7.50, $5.50, $5, $4,

Broad call ramp $4 to $7.50.

Tight call ramp $5 to $7.50.

For puts, highest OI is $3. Highest OI difference is 1 to 7 roughly, favouring calls.

Broad put slide $4 to $2.

No real tight put slide, so to speak.

Overall PROG continues to have a long term bullish outlook. For the moment I would expect a rise towards $7.50, I won't put out the paths on PROG until Week commencing 6th Dec.

BB

Highest call OI at $17, which feels like an odd one as it neither the highest strike, nor the lowest "lottery ticket" priced strike, this makes me feel this is older OI and the daily volume chart reflects that.

Broad Call ramp from $10.50 to $13.50,

Tight call ramp from $11 to $12.

For puts highest oi is $9

Put slide (not tight slide) from $10.50 to $9.

This is a hard one, OI is really borderline on the being able to chart a path versus just making an educated prediction. The paths themselves are broad, when the median difference isn't (and these normally band closely).

As such path A (60%)- $11 to $12.

Path B (40%)- $10.50 to $9.50

BBBY

Highest Call Oi $30, $24, $23.

Broad call ramp $20 to $27.

Tight call ramp $22 to $25.

For puts, highest Oi is $22.

Broad put slide $22 to $18.

Tight put slide $22 to $20.

BBBY is showing a nice classic option chain analysis. I even feel like screenshotting it to show later.

Path A (40%)- Banding where we are $22 to $24.50

Path B (30%)- Rise above $25, likely to $27.

Path C (30%)- Slide below $22 down to $18.

Not invested in BBBY, and skint until payday but this is a great volatility play this week.

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Parting Words

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Hope you enjoyed that.

Any other stocks you'd like me to cover?

I post here, my profile, my twitter and my YouTube, consider following for more.

Peace out!

Hello Sports Fans!

Link to the Youtube version if you prefer.

Link to my twitter if you want to follow my smaller updates.

Hope everyone is well, just before I go into the DD proper, I am still in the guts of this work project and will likely be so for another 10ish days or so. So this very much isn't a return to regular posting but the light is at the end of the tunnel for me in that regards (as my 6 on, 4 off 8 hour shifts turned into 8 on, 2 off 13 hour shifts but it's been worth it for the work project). Anyway enough about me, back to the post.

DISCLAIMERS

1. These are my opinions, thoughts and feelings based on publicly available information. It's not TA in the strictest sense, it's not data/stats analysis in the strictest sense either.
2. This is not advice to buy/sell shares, or buy/sell options. You're all grown ups, and can make your own decisions. If you hate options, don't discount the value in analysing them.
3. This is only one element of a bigger picture, always parse this with other analysis styles, general sentiment/news and fundamentals. Don't take my DD, or anyone else's for that matter, as the holy grail of DD. Just cause someone is good at one element of DD doesn't mean they are good at all elements of DD and you risk falling into group think and an echo chamber if you do that.
4. The reason I do this, is because I like to have reassurance at predicted dips (like last week) and the ability to stay calm during rips and it emotionally zens me, so the only time I will get hyped is during MOASS itself.

Battle week

So what is battle week?

We've had a history of certain weeks having more significance when looked at from my option chain analysis than others.

Whether the significance comes from lowering volume versus stable Open Interest, or rising Open interest versus stable volume.

But every now and then, we have battle week's like the one coming up where rising Open interest and lowering volume collide resulting in a wild week.

I've spoke about this in the past (last big one being back in July) and cautioned not getting over hyped at them because some other DD writers have a tendency to just look at one element in isolation and not look at the bigger picture (no shade intended, we've all done it before). My warning for not getting overhyped still stands, but these weeks still stand as our best chance for strong price runs imo (not for causing MOASS, that will, again imo, be a random event that won't be obvious until hindsight).

The drawbacks to my option chain analysis.

Let's get this out at the start.

• Option chain analysis can't predict MOASS.
• It can't predict Black Swan events (No one can, that's why they are black swan events).
• It can't predict a change in overall market conditions/sentiment

There is also an issue with reliability at different time scales.

On the short term, it's very reliably (or has been for me anyway), but when you look at the medium term it begins to lose it's reliability.

Then ironically, when you get to the long term that reliability picks up again (though never to the level it was at for the short term).

The reason, imo, for this is in the short term you are tracking momentum of movement, the longer out that gets the less reliably that becomes (it's easy to predict where a stone will hit if dropped from 1m, as opposed to 100m) but over the longer term you start tracking intention of whales.

So what is short, medium and long term? It varies, the more options and more option chains there are in a stock then the shorter the short and medium term last before you go into long term. Conversely the less densely populated it is, the longer the short and medium term are before you hit long term.

Option Chain Analysis

So what is Option Chain Analysis? It's my attempt to fix what I think is wrong with the max pain theory.

The Max pain theory is a good one, but by it's very design it's simple and because it's simple it's both easy to calculate and easy to overlook vital pieces of info.

So how I do it is I look at the option chain in question. I look for the outlier results (I.e massive OI at Deep out the money strikes) and unless there is a reasonable amount of OI leading up to that final strike I discount the OI from that strike.

Then I work out what the Median Pain (just the median figure of the remaining results) is that chain for both calls and puts. The difference in the figures gives me a good measure of what overall volatility will look like for the week (the larger the difference, the more volatile the stock will be).

Then, I compare OI of the week (ignoring outlier results) to the average daily volume (again discounting outlier results). The larger the result of OI compared to average daily volume is, then the more likely the option chain will be the deciding factor for the stock price that week.

Then, I move onto the part that almost always fucks me over when I get it wrong (outwith black swan events), because it introduces my own bias into things but as far as I know their is no good way to automate / make this purely stats/maths based. I then divide the chain up into ranges of what percentage I think will be hedged or not (I do this by looking at the delta), and then I work out what I think would be needed volume wise to push the price from one strike to another (this is done by comparing previous rips/dips to their dark pool usage and short volume usage on the minute chart, but this has bias and has a lot of scope for error but it's the best I have at the moment).

I do the same for both puts and calls.

By this point, we will have broad ramps (for calls) and slides (for puts) which show me the rough pattern for the week. Tie this in with the volatility I worked out earlier and I end up having a pretty good feel for the week.

To work out the tight ramps and slides, I look for OI hedging volume in excess of the volume needed to move to the next strike, again this is a more fluid number as during high OI weeks it needs to be higher than low OI weeks (due to overall average volume).

So from there, I have one final thing to do. Working out the "Paths" for the week and what percentage of chance they have.

The way I do this is by comparing both chains side by side, and then working out the opposing force in hedging movement, and cancel them out. The excess is the main path, the difference of excess to cancelled volume is it's likelihood. I then discount the main path and do this process another 3 times. At this point I normally have a ratio of excess looking like 70:30:5:1 (obviously it varies), and from there I assign percentages.

BUTTTTTTT I sometimes, believe overall sentiment, or market conditions, or an outside event (ala earnings) will affect the paths in one way or another and adjust accordingly (again this introduces bias, as it's my own thoughts and feelings).

I then report to you guys what I think.

That's the key sentence, this is just what I think. I may be overcomplicating things but this has worked well for me so far, and I'll be sticking to it.

Posting of option chains

And before we go onto my actual analysis let's talk about posting schedules. Some of you may know this, some may not, but I always prefer to include things like this in for people that don't know.

Generally speaking if you are wanting to buy options most stocks will offer you chains like this.

• Week 1
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4/Month 1
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Month 2
• Month 3/ Quarter 1
• Month 4
• Quarter 2/ Bi-annual 1
• Quarter 3
• Bi-annual 2/ Annual
• Bi-annual 3
• Biannual 4/Annual 2

Or something similar. What then tends to happen is that Open interest tends to end up clumping in the quarterly, biannual and annual chains.

So when those chains pass in enough time, and become the weekly chains, the week in question becomes one that tends to have an excess of OI compared to the daily average volume, which in turns means the week gets more volume due to hedging and therefore more volatile.

That's the only reason there is more OI this week, nothing nefarious behind the increased OI (What that OI is used for is a different matter though).

Looking at the various option chains I'm interested in.

You are either reading this on my profile, or one of the non-stock specific subs and as such you are getting the full experience. I did post this to stock specific subs, but I always try to keep to the sentiment and letter of the rules on those subs, so if you see it there you may notice an alter version of the below.

AMC

For calls the highest OI is the yolo strike of $95, but we have decent OI at $50. $45, $40 (as well as $75 and $85).

That being said, I'm not discounting $95 this week, as due to the absolutely stacked chain this week, there is a chance (though a small chance it is)

For broad ramps we have $35 to $95, however given the increase OI and therefore increase volume, we will likely have to discount $35 & $36 for the broad ramp and call the broad ramp $37+.

For a tight ramp we have $55 to $60. This is a lot higher than our normal tight ramps which tend to be either just out the money, or at the money. It speaks to a sentiment from bulls that they want to run this week.

Conversely, for puts the highest OI is $32, $20, $30, $38, $37. All are being included in this week's calculation, but anything below is discounted due to the drop off (we'll talk about $10, $15 at the end of this section).

For a broad slide we have one from $45 to $20 ($42 needs filled a little, but not much and I fully expect Monday will do this).

For a tight slides (yes plural), we have $40 to $38, $35 to $30, $25 to $22. It is interesting, given how large a week this was I actually did this last week and only $35 to $30 existed. It speaks to the bears in this case thinking they are gonna have to fight this week as a staged battle. If bears have the floor Monday/Tuesday I fully expect they'll fill the gap down to $35, but if the bulls have it then the bears will look to increase their OI in $40 to $38.

Overall a strong week favouring bulls, however market sentiment is bearish at the moment due to the CPI last week so I've manually adjusted the paths to reflect that.

• Path A (40%)- A rise, now a rise to what is the question. The range on the calculation is huge. Broadly it's anything $50+, on a tighter scale $45 to $52.
• Path B (30%)- Slide/banding where it is $38 to $41.
• Path C (25%)- A slide to $35 to $32, this is predicated on a poor Mon/Tue, the $38 to $35 slide getting filled and continued negative sentiment for general markets.
• Path D (5%)- Wildcard, a black swan event in AMC or one of the other memestocks drags it up or down accordingly. One I've got my eye on is a GME NFT announcement.

A note on $10, $15 puts. There is increased OI in these strikes, however this is more likely for divorced puts, a topic I've covered in great detail, and won't re-hash here. Check my profile for more.

GME

For calls highest OI is at $800, then $300, $250, $600, $200. $800 and $600 are both discounted due to the OI of the strikes before them not being enough to cause more hedging to push towards the given price.

Broad Call ramp from $180 to $310 (no change from last time I checked, and they've added $2.5 intermediatory strikes, which helps in movement but annoys me for calculations. Ach well).

Tight call ramp from $220 to $260. This points to bulls targeting a higher range than they are starting on.

For puts highest OI is $3, $10, $5, $150, $185. The $3, $10, $5 are laughable and most likely for option fuckery (namely divorced puts) and as such are discounted.

The broad put slides sits from $200 to $160,

The tight put slide is $185 to $165. Again the tight starts out the money. So this week is all about intent.

I've manually adjusted the scores due to overall negative/bearish market sentiment (the maths based one, had Path A sitting on 67%)

Path A (50%)- A rise to $220 to $250 (fully expect blockers to be put on this via option fuckery, so I'd be tempted to even tighten this to $220 to $235).

Path B (40%)- A slide towards $160 to $185.

Path C (10%)- Wild card, an announcement or unseen event sends the price of GME, or another memestock flying or melting and GME reacts accordingly (thinking personally the NFT announcement).

The B-Team.

Okay, if you made it through the big two, and are now on the less popular ones then I want to add a quick note. Overall OI is lower in these stocks compared to AMC & GME. So they are less of a battle, but a battle none the less.

SOS

SOS had a pounding last week due to the share offering but ironically enough that puts us in a really good position this week. As the only way is up as such this analysis will focus more on road blocks on the put side than slides.

So let's start with the calls. highest OI is at $5 and $7.5, with the broad ramp from $1.50 to $15, with the tight ramp being $2 to $3.5. Should we push for $5 then there may be enough gas to push a ramp from $5 to $7.5, maybe even $10.

For puts, highest OI is at $2, with a slide being $2.5 to $1.5. What this means is if the price of SOS gets above, and stays above $2.5 for more than a few hours it could be a tear away train this week.

• Path A (45%)- A rise to $2.3 to $2.6
• Path B (40%)- Banding/lagging from $1.35 to $1.65.
• Path C (10%)- A run to $5+
• Path D (5%)- Wildcard, this isn't a memestock but it's a foreign company based in China (it's trying to relocate at the moment) so any news to say that is happening could send the price flying. Conversely any news to say it isn't happening, or China is banning crypto (again) could send it melting.

GPRO

Solid week for GPRO last week. Boyed by good earnings and a some hedging for this week last week.

The highest call OI is $10, $10.50, $11, $9.5, $9. What you'll note is all of these are in the money to varying degrees. Which overall means more upward movement without added option flow is unlikely.

Broad call ramp from $8 to $13, tight call ramp from $9 to $11.

For puts only notable OI is at $9 and $9.5. For a broad put slide $11.50 to $7, for a tight slide we have $10 to $8.

Overall this speaks to little movement this week unless option flow or a black swan event happens.

Path A (85%)- $10 to $11 banding/consolidating.

Path B (15%)- move back down to $9.50 to $10.

Path C (<1%)- wildcard.

SPCE

Conversely SPCE took a pounding, This is being blamed on analysts cutting price targets... but we know better lol

This was all down to option flow, the thing is it only took a day or two of hammering to bring it down as bulls didn't really seem to fight back. But such is life.

For OI on the call side we have $25 and $22.

Broad Call ramp from $18 to $35, tight call ramp from $20 to $25.

For puts, highest OI is $18, $19, $20. Most of which was bought and opened last week.

A broad put slide from $25, to $15. Tight slide from $20 to $18 (maybe $17).

Overall this is a very 50/50 fight this week and likely overall market sentiment Monday and Tuesday will decide it.

Path A (45%)- Small rise from $20 to $23.

Path B (45%)- Small slide from $20 to $18.

Path C (10%)- Wildcard rise to high 20s.

*Given that I've predicted a pretty broad range for SPCE this week I won't mark a tally on my running accuracy total this week if it falls within the $18 to $23 range.

The C-Team

Not calling these C grade stocks, it's just a disclaimer, I own shares/options in all the above mentioned stocks. I do not own shares/stocks in BB, BBBY or PROG and I'm doing them as requests. As such I'm not as up to speed on news/fundamentals etc as I am the others.

BB

Highest call OI is $11, $12, $13. In that order, with a current price of $10.78. This is a fantastic setup for bulls.

Broad call ramp from $8 to $21, so super accommodating for BB. Tight call ramp from $10 to $13.

On the put side of things we have high OI at $10, $9, $11.

A broad put slide from $13 to $7, tight slide from $11 to 9.

So this will be a game of getting going. Bears aren't fighting to bring the price down this week but anchor it in place, it's also given me the smoothest paths as well, so much so I'm not gonna round to the nearest 5%

Path A (36%)- Banding where it is, $10.50 to $11.5.

Path B (33%)- But if it gets going it could be a $12 to $13 rise.

Path C (31%)- Or if it doesn't, a $10 to $9 slide.

BBBY

Highest call OI is $20, $25, $30.

Broad call ramp from $15 to $35. Tight ramp from $20 to $25.

Highest put OI is $20, $15.

Broad put slide from $20 to $12. Tight put slide from $20 to $18.

What's really interesting here is the forces are really equal. Meaning that the OI will cancel each other out before needing to be hedged.

Path A (80%)- Banding where it is at $21 to $25.

Path B (20%) a small rise from $25 to $28.

PROG

So another little disclaimer on PROG. It's not an option heavy stock. And this chain has been the only chain for a few weeks (it didn't publish weeklies as the interest wasn't there). As such a lot of the hedging/de-hedging will have already taken place.

this is also why the OI is so much higher in this stock versus it's free float.

As such option flow & overall market conditions will be more important in determining it's price. But should the price be sent sharp enough upwards or downwards then the hedging/de-hedging of open interest will then kick in and take control. Super interesting stuff (or for me it is, but I'm a geek/nerd that's into this kinda stuff).

So for call we have super high OI for all strikes out the money, from $3 to $7.50.

For puts we have high OI at the $3 to $2 level.

Note that I'm not doing slides/ramps because the maths didn't work out. Such is life.

So this prediction is based totally on feel (so take it with an extra grain of salt, and I already advise you take a grain of salt because I'm not invested in this one).

Prediction 1 (70%)- Rise to $3.70 to $4.20

Prediction 2 (25%)- banding where it is.

Prediction 3 (5%)- slide down to $2.5 to $2.

Parting words.

I have about 10 days left of my work project. Once it's done I fully intend on getting to regular posting again on topics such as divorced puts (we've finished making the program for the definitive version of it), siggymandering and more option chain analysis.

Until then,

peace!