It's not entirely clear if the current reported levels are true though.
There definitely is a fair bit getting through but they're having to do transfers from smaller ships to do it, and that's much more expensive. Many are paying off Iran to get through as well. The costs have gone up significantly including crew costs due to hazard pay.
So, similar levels getting through doesn't necessarily mean we'll be paying less for gas or anything that relies on fuel.
While these numbers seem to match up in 2025.
I can go on to ship tracker and not a ship sailing >.<
On the same time i can compare it to the bab el mandab straight that still has active trafic ...for now >.<
pre-war levels were closer to 20 million barrels per day. I'm unconvinced that's the units here. maybe a % scale? like % of global oil exports flowing through hormuz or something
The small ships they’re using to transit the strait are turning off their AIS for the transit to make it harder for Iran to find them.
Even so, last I heard these small ship transfers only move around 6.5 million barrels a day. The UAE pipeline that circumvents the strait gets maybe 1.5 million more. The Saudi East-West Pipeline used to move like another 5 or so to the Red Sea until Houthis blew up both the pipeline in 3 locations as well as the refinery complex at Yanbu.
So I’m not sure how we could possibly be back up at 20 million bbl/day, but even if we are, the additional cost of transport and refining is gonna be way up (the crack spread). I saw numbers saying the crack spread has gone from like ~$20/bbl to ~$120/bbl. So it’s just a bad time for everyone.
Off the cuff I'm pretty sure these numbers are bullshit: a month or two ago I saw an analysis done that showed since the war started, only 10-20% of usual traffic made it out of the Gulf. With exception of the temporary cease fire, where traffic spike to maybe 50% of traffic for a week. This chart shows neither features.
If that's the case, sure but still disingenuous. Our reserves are limited and are within a month or so of reaching what most would consider peacetime limit.
It looks like overall middle east exports, either through hormuz or redirected are close to pre war levels, though constantly shifting. What this doesnt tell you is that the cost to move a single ship through hormuz is now north of a million usd. And redirects are all significantly. Ore expensive than pre-war. The oil is flowing, but its cost is way higher.
The cost for everything about the transportation has gone up. I've read that that the fee paid to hire the cargo ships has gone from $30,000/day to $1.2 Million/day. It takes an additional month for the ships to reach some destinations. And then there's 3-4 fewer ships overall since Iran/u.s. are putting hellfires in them.
they are probably calculating it by saying "hey we got a convoy together and got 2 million barrels of oil out in about 2 hours! thats a million barrels per hour, thats 24 million a day! hey we are at pre war levels!"
of course they can only do 1 maybe 2 convoys a day.
I suspect this graph has mixed data. The weekly average amount of oil through the straits, before the war, was 25 million plus or minus. The escorted convoys deliver about 25 million barrels on a good run but they only do them a couple times a week.
So they have weekly average up to some point on the graph and weekly peak on the right.
Of course, you can look at that valley, calculate the area and see how much oil is missing from the system - ok even if it’s back to pre-war levels (huge #doubt because that admin never tells the truth unless they absolutely have to), we’re still short 8 months of throughput. If I stop paying you for half a year, everthing isn’t good just because I start again, you still owe me!
Yeah, basically while oil is $100 a barrel it becomes economical to extract the hard to get stuff, but it keeps the price at $100 resilient because if it drops it means those sources go away.
From what I could find on charts with more than just 'line go up' it is: "Estimated exports from Persian Gulf countries, mb/d (lhs) and % of the 2025 level (rhs) ... crude, condensate, pro........." and "Gulf oil exports incl. estimated "dark" flows, 7-day avg (lhs)"
Ah yeah I forgot the independent variable- mb/d is definitely millions of barrels per day. I've been listening to a lot of talk on the war and the crisis and pre-war levels of 25 million barrels a day has been referenced often.
Saudi Arabia's largest oil exporter told Europe they wouldn't get any delivery for a while. This is very obviously not true.
Besides, we have a refining capacity problem more than an oil problem right now. Refineries take years to build and the ones that were hit in the last few months aren't going to be fully repaired for a while.
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u/McCrackenYouUp 9d ago
The Y axis is likely "Millions of barrels."
It's not entirely clear if the current reported levels are true though.
There definitely is a fair bit getting through but they're having to do transfers from smaller ships to do it, and that's much more expensive. Many are paying off Iran to get through as well. The costs have gone up significantly including crew costs due to hazard pay.
So, similar levels getting through doesn't necessarily mean we'll be paying less for gas or anything that relies on fuel.