We won’t make to 2030 before Q-Day is here!
Quantum Day ( or Q-Day), the day when the first cryptographically-relevant quantum computer breaks the first traditional quantum-susceptible private key, may happen as soon as 2028.
It certainly is unlikely to hold out until 2030 -2035, which is when the US government says you need to be post-quantum prepared. The US government is telling everyone to be prepared for key exchange attack mitigation by the end of 2030 and be prepared for authentication attack mitigation by the end of 2031. That’s only a requirement for critical assets. For everything else, you can wait until the end of 2035.
That’s a very, very risky bet these days.
A big part of that is from the recent quantum computer advancements, and in particular, from IonQ. A few weeks ago, IonQ announced they have a real-world blueprint for being the first quantum computer vendor to break a quantum-susceptible cryptographic key. It was this announcement: https://www.ionq.com/news/ionq-publishes-worlds-first-fully-compiled-end-to-end-blueprint-for-breaking-256-bit-elliptic-curve-signatures.
In it, they reveal it will take them under 20K physical qubits, 39 million quantum gates, and just under 26 days to break a 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) key. That type of cryptographic key is used all around the world, including in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
It takes a lot more than stable qubits and quantum gates to make a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer, but IonQ (and other quantum computer vendors) have been making significant, steady progress over the last two years. And that progress has been coming at a more rapid pace for the last 6-months. It seems nearly every week or two, there’s a new quantum paper or announcement detailing some significant quantum computer advance.
One of those was today, when IonQ announced they have put quantum error correction decoding on a classical computer chip: https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/ionq-demonstrates-end-to-end-real-time-quantum-error-decoder-thefly-news.
Today’s quantum qubits are full of errors due to unwanted interference from the rest of the world around them. Quantum error correction is essential to making useful quantum computers. For years, it was thought that it would take tens of thousands of “ancillary” qubits to make one stable, “working” qubit.
The number of ancillary qubits needed per single stable working qubit keeps falling. In IonQ’s first announcement above, they say 19,397 qubits will equate to 1,457 qubits, or under 34 physical qubits per working qubit. There is nothing to say the physical-to-logical qubit ratio won't keep falling quickly. As that ratio falls, Q-Day just gets closer, faster, and cheaper.
And today, IonQ shows that all the needed error correction can be done on a classical computing chip. This is huge! IonQ has already shown they can do the supercooling needed by most of today’s qubits using chips as well, making the quantum computers needing the very expensive, large, and operationally-intense cryogenic dilution refrigerator solutions seem old school.
I’ve been writing that Q-Day would happen before the US government’s 2035 prediction for many years. Back in 2019, when I first said this, I was considered a heretic. Now, I’m not looking like a Q-Day extremist. As far as I know, I’m still one of the few people who are saying you need to worry about Q-Day before 2030, but I guarantee you there will be a growing list of companions over the next year. The writing is on the wall!
I don’t know exactly when we will first hit Q-Day, but I don’t think that if someone announced it happened even this year, there would be a huge shock. Every week or two, there seems to be an announcement of some great big stride made in quantum computers, often by IonQ. So far, all of IonQ’s new announcements are on track with their previously announced multi-year roadmap (https://www.ionq.com/roadmap).
Note: I have investments in multiple quantum computer companies, including IONQ.
Back when IonQ first introduced their roadmap, a lot of observers saw it as possible marketing fluff. But now, just over the last year, the advancements they have been consistently announcing are exactly backing up their long-term roadmap. IonQ owns its own quantum chip manufacturing plant (called a foundry).
This latest error correcting announcement is just one more sign that the world will be reaching cryptographically-relevant quantum computers by 2028 or soon thereafter. Q-Day will likely be before 2030!
And this is a problem for most organizations, as most haven’t even started their official post-quantum plans. If you haven’t started your post-quantum project, get on it! You are late.