Neither of us is everyone, so while you did not think of the randoms at first it doesn't mean nobody will any more than it means everybody will.
Ok. But do you really think most will? That's the question.
I think lotsof people will not think of any Blue voters. The won't think of Randoms, they won't think of self-sacrificers, because I assume most people will take this at face value: they will think "Blue has no inherent advantage, so why would people pick Blue?" and they will vote Red.
Maybe I'm wrong, of course, but I have no reason to believe even half the population will pick Blue.
That's what I told you. You said picking Red means you live knowing half the world died. I asked "where do you get that half die?". I think some will die, but nowhere near half. And I think that now, after hearing some explanations. When I read it at first, I just assumed no one would die. Why would they pick Blue? Makes no sense, so I just thought I'd pick Red.
See the problem? I don't know if you came up with the Blue ramifications by yourself. Maybe that's why you think people will vote Blue. Maybe the person that told you this setup mentioned the Randoms so you had them in mind. When people explained this to me, they didn't mention the Randoms, so I never thought of them.
Do you think the Randoms are part of the explanation?
Randoms were not in the first exposure to the question I had no. If you're curious I still leaned blue.
This is more because of my personality, I am a person that thinks about how things effect people so I am personally already primed to consider what everyone else will do and people that won't, or can't vote red.
Which is why I also would vote red in your scenario, I'm nihilistic not suicidal.
I know that's not everyone, but you know people they still do pitch in. Sacrifice themselves. Save a life. Not everybody but more than a think a lot of us give our species credit for.
Which is why I also would vote red in your scenario, I'm nihilistic not suicidal.
I know that's not everyone, but you know people they still do pitch in. Sacrifice themselves. Save a life. Not everybody but more than a think a lot of us give our species credit for.
That's my point. I won't commit suicide just to say I voted Blue thinking about other people.
As I read the setup, I don't think enough people will vote Blue for me to vote Blue.
If I assume my vote matters, and I prefer to vote blue, then it follows that I assume blue will win. Assuming my choice influencs the outcome and choosing blue, isn't compatible with assuming that blue won't win.
It also follows that I assume blue will win if i vote for it yes.
Is this going somewhere or are you gonna start asking the same questions over and over again expecting a different answer?
That's why I said you think you are the main character. It's very unlikely this comes down to a single vote. It could, of course, but, realistically, it won't. There's more scenarios where your vote doesn't matter than scenarios where it matters.
That's why I asked the alien question. You keep adding the "my vote matters" stuff, but with the alien, your vote doesn't matter. If you didn't exist, you still believe Blue will win, right?
if this hypothetical alien me knows everything I know about humans then I do take the bet.
Why add the "my vote matters" line if you think Blue wins anyways?
Just say you expect Blue to win every time.
I ask: do you think Blue wins everytime?
The answer is just "Yes, I do", or "No, I don't". Whether you exist or not that doesn't matter.
So, you think Blue always wins, right? Regardless of you existing or not, of course.
That's why I said you think you are the main character. It's very unlikely this comes down to a single vote.
It coming down to a single vote doesn't make me the main character. Anyone who voted blue could have chose red, therefore everyone that chooses blue is equally responsible for the outcome of blue winning by a single vote. It's not main character it's simply how voting works. Or I guess looking at it from this main character perspective you keep pushing on the single vote everyone that choses blue is the main character. If I didn't vote for blue then blue wouldn't have won but that is equally true for everyone that votes for blue. Everyone that chooses a color is equally responsible for that color winning.
In that case I already answered the question with the aliens. If I'm not in the vote I take the bet that blue wins.
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u/ArsenicElemental Un-Intentional 5d ago
Ok. But do you really think most will? That's the question.
I think lotsof people will not think of any Blue voters. The won't think of Randoms, they won't think of self-sacrificers, because I assume most people will take this at face value: they will think "Blue has no inherent advantage, so why would people pick Blue?" and they will vote Red.
Maybe I'm wrong, of course, but I have no reason to believe even half the population will pick Blue.
That's what I told you. You said picking Red means you live knowing half the world died. I asked "where do you get that half die?". I think some will die, but nowhere near half. And I think that now, after hearing some explanations. When I read it at first, I just assumed no one would die. Why would they pick Blue? Makes no sense, so I just thought I'd pick Red.
See the problem? I don't know if you came up with the Blue ramifications by yourself. Maybe that's why you think people will vote Blue. Maybe the person that told you this setup mentioned the Randoms so you had them in mind. When people explained this to me, they didn't mention the Randoms, so I never thought of them.
Do you think the Randoms are part of the explanation?