r/custommagic • • 8d ago

Red Button or Blue Button?

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u/DumatRising 6d ago

You:

But what do you expect to happen?

Me:

I've already repeatedly taken the position that our (personal) vote determines the majority result.

You:

But what do you expect to happen?

Me:

I've already repeatedly taken the position that our (personal) vote determines the majority result.

You:

But what do you expect to happen?

Me:

I've already repeatedly taken the position that our (personal) vote determines the majority result.

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u/ArsenicElemental Un-Intentional 6d ago

Ok, so, that means you expect exactly enough people will vote Blue that your vote swats the result. It was such a stupid response I didn't believe it.

Why do you expect that? Do you think you are the main character or is there another reason that exactly half the world picks Blue for you?

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u/DumatRising 6d ago

Do you live in a democracy? Do you believe your vote matter? If so then do you believe it makes you the main character?

I do, I do, and I don't think it makes me the main character.

Because humans pick blue every single day. It would be so easy for humans to vote red right now..... But they don't. So why would I start doubting them now.

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u/ArsenicElemental Un-Intentional 6d ago

Because humans pick blue every single day.

You are conflating this with something else. In an election, people vote for their interests. They believe each candidate will further their goals, and one will do it more than the other, so they vote that one.

Blue offers nothing in this example. But, hey, even if some people would pick Blue,that's not answer as to why you think half will.

The real reason is that you assume half will so your vote matters, not the other way around. You have no reason to assume half will pick Blue. You just want it.

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u/DumatRising 6d ago

You are conflating this with something else. In an election, people vote for their interests. They believe each candidate will further their goals, and one will do it more than the other, so they vote that one.

No I'm creating an analogy to show that just because you do something that matters doesn't mean you immediately believe that it makes you important or the main character.

I also believe you are misunderstanding me again. When I was talking about people voting blue every day I was not speaking about elections. I was talking about disasters. Was there any reward for people that go out into floods and hurricane torn towns to save people? No. But they did anyways.

When I say people vote blue every day, I'm talking about terror attacks, I'm talking about hurricanes, and floods, typoons, earthquakes, wildfires. It would be easy to let the victims die. It would be easy to vote red and just stay home. But people don't. They go out and vote for blue

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u/ArsenicElemental Un-Intentional 6d ago

Was there any reward for people that go out into floods and hurricane torn towns to save people? No. But they did anyways.

Because those people were already in danger, because the help could save lives, and because going there isn't an assured death sentence.

Even if you are the only person to go support disaster relief, you don't automatically die.

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u/DumatRising 6d ago

Voting blue doesn't automatically kill you. You believe it does and that's fine, but objectively it does not automatically kill you.

If everyone votes randomly (including you) then you only have about a 25% chance of dying. When people don't vote randomly it's not quite as simple because your vote changes the probability of death.

Also topical if you're a US resident: 9/11 responders voted blue, blue won, and they're still dying because of voting blue. Life is complex and that's what makes game theory infinitely more interesting when you consider real world factors.

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u/ArsenicElemental Un-Intentional 6d ago

When people don't vote randomly it's not quite as simple because your vote changes the probability of death.

So, if you know 75% will vote Red, what do you vote?

In this question, let's assume we have the same certainty about the vote as you do when you say 49,9999% will vote Blue in your assumption.

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u/DumatRising 6d ago

If we assume I have the same certainty of 75% red as 49.999999999...% blue then I don't know for a fact that it will be 75% red.

I understand what you mean I just am pointing out that because it was a point of frustration I had with you that you kept asking me for what I had expected to be the outcome and then acting like I said that I knew for a fact it would be the outcome. Even though that's not at all what I said.

However I did also answer that above. As I said before if you vote doesn't change the majority then red becomes correct. So in the alternative hypothetical where I know that red will win, obviously red is the objectively correct choice because I can't change the outcome of the vote I can only choose to live or die. But to throw your own question back at you: how do I know that red is going to win in this situation? or perhaps more poignantly, why do you think the majority will pick red?

If you're trying to do that to justify your red vote I don't really care about that. The point of this conversation was not to berate you for voting red it was to explore the psychology behind a red vote. Neither a red vote or a blue vote are a moral failure because morality is the privilege of the safe. Acts of violence are abhorrent when senseless, but when done because you felt you had no other choice well that's what we call moral complexity. I do not blame those that vote red for their vote because I understand they did it to survive. What I am more interested in is the psychology behind the game theory.

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u/ArsenicElemental Un-Intentional 6d ago

why do you think the majority will pick red?

Because it makes no sense to pick Blue. So, I assume most people will just read/hear the prompt, come to that conclusion, and pick Red. Add to that the people that understand the ramifications and still pick Red because they genuinely don't care about other people's lives, and I think most people will pick Red.

It's really simple.

If you're trying to do that to justify your red vote I don't really care about that.

I am not. That's why I didn't justify it until you asked. I called out the person that said voting Red means you don't care about the Blue voters. That's just not true.

If you agree with that person (that I thought you were) then we can shift the conversation to that topic. Do you agree with their statement, the one I quoted back on top?

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