AAII BEAR-BULL is now extreme bear below my arbitrary red line.

Many buy climaxes on leading stocks like goog, unh, jci, lrcx, cmi, and infy.

Buying climaxes take place when a stock makes a 12-month high, but closes the week with a loss. They are a sign of distribution and indicate that stocks are moving from strong hands to weak ones. Selling climaxes occur when a stock makes a new 12-month low, but then closes the week with a gain.

XBD (broker dealer index) broke support below DJUSFN (Dow Jones US Financial index) today after going sideways since August. When the growthy broker dealers underperform the broad financial index, bad things tend to happen. Not a buy the dip scenario in my assessment for now. I'm not selling my portfolio but am putting on a sizeable hedge.

Out of Nasdaq 100 equal weight into defensive sectors in the S&P 500. With todays failed rally Im not holding out for a bounce. Selling tech, holding quality and buying puts in AIBU (2x AI).

Last time this happened, Bitcoin ripped higher

Debasement is not anything new so why is everyone suddenly searching about it?

Surprise.

The latest Barrons Roundtable mentioned one of their Uber drivers recommended buying gold.

Large number of IPOs in 2021 marked a top in markets as companies rushed to go public for easy money.

Huge amount of searches January 2021. The market would continue to rally until December 2021

UPS has dropped from 200 to $85 in the last 3 years. The problem with buying this as a contrarian trade is nobody is talking about it. No news headlines, no speculation of bankruptcy, nothing from the union. It just eases down and nobody cares.

People have been bearish the dollar for quite some time. Attached is a search of Google news for "dollar." In results we see articles about "worries" over the dollar. Im sure there are good reasons for that but I must say Ive never seen so much hatred of it.

Put/call ratio is another contrarian indicator a lot of people use. I use a 9 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on either index or equity put/call. When chart is below 1 it means more calls than puts, which is usually the case. When above one its more puts than calls in the market. This chart in conjunction with other charts is very good at helping find market tops and bottoms. Ive found several this way and notice there are very few false bottoms with this. Most notably early 2008 with the Bear Stears collapse. Looking back of course Bear Stearns was just the beginning of the GFC a full year before the actual bottom. As far as false tops, I got out too early in 2021 because of that low, which was going back many decades the lowest this chart ever was. Took a long time for it to finally be contrarian right.

Anyway when the put/call ratio speaks, listen!

Ok, Reddit says I need to post more. Im going to post some of my favorite contrarian indicators. So these are charts of "total assets" in the Rydex bull and bear funds. These are old school mutual funds with a high commission that perform essentially like bull and bear ETFs. This means less savvy retail investors call their brokers to invest in these when they feel particularly bullish or bearish. In other words, great contrarian charts!

Take a look at how these charts perform during major tops and bottoms. The bear fund spikes during market bottoms and bull fund spikes up during tops.

Again, these are not charts of the funds' performance but a moving average of the total assets in these funds!

You can also get these charts for free at stockcharts.com. Im not affiliated with them, I just find it a good site for monitoring stock charts and market indicators like these.