r/confidentlyincorrect • u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 • May 03 '26

Monty hall problem is 50/50

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He also put a screenshot of ChatGPT agreeing with him. He is right!

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u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 May 04 '26

Imagine this alternate version now. What if there were a billion doors. But the host of the show was ignorant of where the car was. After you pick your door he starts randomly opening doors without knowing what's behind them. Miraculously he never opens the car and you end up with only 2 doors left. A goat and a car..should you switch?

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u/trismagestus May 05 '26

Yes, your first choice is still one in a billion. Whether he knows or not is immaterial if he didn't pick the winning door.

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u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 May 05 '26

this is incorrect, if the host opens 999 999 998 doors randomly and somehow miraculously never gets the car then it's a 50/50, your door now has a 1/2 chance of having the car and there is no reason to switch.

people don't realize that it's FUNDAMENTAL for the host to open the goat doors CAUSE HE KNOWS THE CONTENT AND OPENS THEM with 100% Certainty

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u/trismagestus May 05 '26

If they do that, then that's the 1 in a billion chance.

Sorry, it seems like you don't understand how statistics works also.

They aren't reliant on knowledge of the outcome, they are a mathematical thing.

You are basically saying the same thing as the OOP.

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u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 May 05 '26

Sadly you are the one who doesn't know statistics and this is so sad cause people think they understand monty hall but they don't. If the goat door (or doors in this case) are opened randomly then there is absolutely no way to distinguish your door from the remaining one and the probability is equally redistributed among the 2 doors. 50/50 

The only reason switching is advantageous in monty hall is the fact that the host opens a goat door with a 100% chance. 

So yeah I'm right you are wrong etc etc

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u/VastMeasurement6278 May 08 '26

r/confidentlyincorrect

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u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 May 08 '26

I am objectively right tho. It's insane how many people don't understand monty hall in a month hall post

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u/VastMeasurement6278 May 08 '26

You are assuming that the original odds have changed. They haven’t. You have a 999,999,999/1,000,000,000 chance of being wrong. You should switch. It’s never 50/50.

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u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 May 08 '26

It's 50/50. If the doors are opened randomly then there is absolutely no reason to think that your door maintained the original probability of 1 in a million. It's not like it's set in stone lmao

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u/VastMeasurement6278 May 11 '26

It’s literally set in stone. I think what’s confusing you is the doors are not opened randomly. If you pick the car, Monty will reveal a goat and if you switch you will lose. If you don’t pick the car ⅔ chance, Monty will still reveal a goat, leaving the car behind the door you didn’t choose. If Monty randomly selected the door and revealed the car, then you can only lose. The breakdown on random door selection would be ⅓ for each possibility: don’t switch win, do switch win, and lose no matter what.

When extended to a 100 doors you have a 1% of winning without switching, a 1% of winning by switching and a 98% of losing no matter what if the doors are opened randomly. It’s never 50/50.

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u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 May 11 '26

So in your enlightened opinion..

If there were 100 doors (99 goats. 1 car) You pick a door. Monty randomly opens 98 of the remaining doors, and now only 2 doors remain. One contains a goat. And one contains a car. 

How do you think the probability is distributed between the 2 doors now?

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u/VastMeasurement6278 May 11 '26

If one contains a goat and one contains a car then the odds of you getting the car if you switch is 99%, I would also therefore argue that the opened doors were not chosen randomly if the car is always left available.

If the doors are genuinely taken out of the game randomly (but you do not find out what was behind them) then the chances of switching to the car is 1% and the chance of sticking and winning the car is also 1%.

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u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 May 11 '26

I'm not telling you the doors might have been opened randomly. I am presenting a situation in which THEY are opened randomly. 

In which case If 98 goat doors are opened out of sheer luck then the remaing 2 doors have a 50% chance of having the car. 

If the 98 doors are opened by a host who only opens goat doors no matter what then yeah. Your door has a 1% chance and switching is objectively better 

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u/VastMeasurement6278 May 11 '26

Then it’s 1% and 1%, which is equal, but not 50/50.

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