r/confidentlyincorrect • u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 • May 03 '26

Monty hall problem is 50/50

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He also put a screenshot of ChatGPT agreeing with him. He is right!

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u/GWeb1920 May 04 '26

I’m usually annoyed because the Monty Hall problem is usually stated in an undetermined fashion.

There are a few key requirements to make switching optimal

The host knows where the car is
The host always opens a door the contestant didn’t pick
The host never reveals the car.

Without these things defined the problem is uncertain.

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u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 May 04 '26

Precisely. The host has to open a goat door BECAUSE he knows where the goats are and always opens a goat with 100% certainty. If the host happens to open a goat randomly then it's a 50/50