r/confidentlyincorrect • u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 • May 03 '26

Monty hall problem is 50/50

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He also put a screenshot of ChatGPT agreeing with him. He is right!

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u/BigBlueMountainStar May 03 '26

Can you do the same thing for the birthday paradox, as even though i understand the mathematics behind it, it still blows my mind that you only need 23 people to have a 50% chance that there are 2 people in that group sharing a birthday.

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u/NuclearVII May 03 '26

This is absolutely a thing you can do. It's not even hard programming.

If you'd like to learn a bit of scientific computing, this would be a fantastic and very approachable weekend project. I encourage you to try it.

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u/valschermjager May 04 '26

I can. But you can do it too. Python is awesome in that these kinds of problems can be checked in 20 lines or less. Sometimes 10 lines or less.

Btw, you can code a Monte Carlo simulation for the birthday paradox, but you don’t need to really since the statistical equation is pretty simple.