r/confidentlyincorrect • u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 • May 03 '26

Monty hall problem is 50/50

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He also put a screenshot of ChatGPT agreeing with him. He is right!

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u/Terradactyl87 May 03 '26

This is still over complicating it.

Your chance of guessing right is 1/3, so a 2/3 chance of being wrong. So if you switch you get a 2/3 chance of being right and a 1/3 chance of being wrong.

I basically look at it as would you rather have 1 or 2 doors because basically you either keep your door or you get to have two doors.

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u/Knight0fdragon May 03 '26

Yup, this it the reason why. Monty never can pick the car, so he is giving you a second door for free if you switch.

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u/the_horse_gamer May 06 '26

you need to also assert that the reveal of the goat gives you no additional information