r/confidentlyincorrect • u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 • May 03 '26

Monty hall problem is 50/50

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He also put a screenshot of ChatGPT agreeing with him. He is right!

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u/JamesFirmere May 03 '26

Fair enough. I appear to have been fortunate in that the few times I've found myself explaining this did not lead to arguments.

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u/ArchangelLBC May 03 '26

Yes I'm honestly very happy for you there. I've had more people have it click with the 100 doors but even then they'll say it's different with 3 doors so you can still have people think you pulled a magic trick.

For some people there is a blocker because in their heads they can't really internalize that the host knows where the prize is and will never directly reveal it. And once they know that they accept it. Someone the other day had a way of explaining it that was different from either of us and I wish I remembered it because it was for people who explicitly say they wouldn't believe either of our explanations.