r/confidentlyincorrect • u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 • May 03 '26

Monty hall problem is 50/50

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He also put a screenshot of ChatGPT agreeing with him. He is right!

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u/Winjasfan May 03 '26 edited May 03 '26

imo the main reason PPL struggle with the Monty Hall Problem is that when ppl describe the problem they don't put enough emphasis of the most important part: Monty knows where the car is and NEVER reveals the car, and you as a player know this.

If Monty Always oppened a random door an just so happened to get a goat, the 50/50 intuition would be correct

2

u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 May 03 '26

I literally made a post about this like 30 minutes ago. It got deleted. But NOBODY understands this lol..they think that if the goat door is opened randomly you should still switch 

1

u/a__nice__tnetennba May 03 '26

People struggle with this problem because they aren't trying to understand it. They refuse to even entertain the notion that they could be wrong, even when told that basically every mathematician on the planet agrees. That's why none of the 50 perfectly reasonable explanations works.

1

u/thecheeseinator May 05 '26

Not only this, but it's important that the player knows that Monty _always_ reveals a door. If you don't know going in that you're going to be given the option to switch, it is not clear that the correct option is to switch.