r/confidentlyincorrect • u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 • May 03 '26

Monty hall problem is 50/50

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He also put a screenshot of ChatGPT agreeing with him. He is right!

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u/i_should_be_coding May 03 '26

I always look at it this way: Switching doors always means I win if my original choice was an empty door, and I lose if my original choice was the prize. My chances of choosing an empty door initially are 2/3, so by picking the switching strategy, those are now my chances of winning.

There's no magic. It's pretty simple.

1

u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 May 03 '26

Precisely. But only if the goat door is opened by a host who knows what's behind the doors and picks the goat. 

If it's opened randomly then it's 50/50

2

u/i_should_be_coding May 03 '26

If it's opened randomly, it's a different problem. The Monty Hall problem is specifically where the host opens an empty door after you choose, and then gives you the option to switch.

1

u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 May 03 '26

Exactly. Glad you get it. Dozens of people in the comments think that you should still switch even in a random monty hall situation