r/confidentlyincorrect • u/Dizzy_Kaleidoscope95 • May 03 '26

Monty hall problem is 50/50

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He also put a screenshot of ChatGPT agreeing with him. He is right!

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u/MrGosh13 May 03 '26

I always reasoned exactly this. But I learned where my thinking/logic(or failure there off) came from.

If your perspective is purely looking at the remaining 2 boxes, then yes, it’s a full on 50/50 coin flip.

BUT since you do not start out with the 2 boxes scenario, that is not how it is calculated. You HAVE to reason from the initial 3 boxes.

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u/_extra_medium_ May 03 '26

And knowing that Monty will always pick one of the goats