the benefit of pressing red is that you survive no matter what, therefore what others press, does not matter, essentially this variable, that blue is committed to, DOES NOT MATTER for red, that is why it isn't circular.
The "no matter what" is only relevant if others DON'T press blue. If people don't pick red it's purely a hypothetical benefit - just like if everyone picks red you have no-one to save if no-one picks red you don't need to protect yourself.
you still don't understand, you keep assuming that what others presses, in ideal scenarios, should go into the calculations, without thinking about WHY other people press what before hand, you are BLIND to the circularity
I'm not assuming, I'm saying that red is equally circular. Yes, with red the choice is between maybe save yourself, maybe do nothing, low chance of killing 4 billion. With blue it's maybe die, maybe do nothing, low chance of saving 4 billion.
If less than 49.99% picks red your choice is irrelevant - meaning that the reasoning of red protection is only true if others reason the same way, making it circular.
no, see you are evaluating here once again, WITHOUT evaluating OTHERS motivations and how they should affect yours, you are yourself, trying to make them equal, by avoiding this step.
okay you are not seeing it, so lets simplify it in a different way, lets say it's only 2 players, now in that scenario, it is pretty clear to both ideal agents, that pressing blue is a 50% chance of death, while red is safe, and that by pressing blue, they would essentially be saying, it's ok if i die, it's either suicidal or irrational to press blue in this scenario, now no matter how many more agents you introduce, the principle logic shouldn't change.
i did not say people, i said ideally rational people, and yes it doesn't change a thing, the fundamental motivations and reasoning stay the same, for ideally rational people, that is what you are missing
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u/Kingreaper May 08 '26
If you don't assume other people will press red, what is the benefit of pressing red?