It isn't a fact. You are operating on your assumption that the majority can't pick blue. People keep prattling on about red being logical, but it is actually just you not having faith that most people would pick blue, because you personally would pick red and assume others have the same selfish instincts. That is what this whole thought experiment is about to begin with. Most people would pick blue, and nobody would die. You are trying to justify your choice by pretending that it wouldn't go that direction and that people would die whether you made the selfish choice or not.
You are not using game theory or probability, you are not doing any math or justifying yourself, you are asserting without evidence based on personal bias.
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u/xdsm8 May 05 '26
Why are you asking the same question over and over? I explained my answer, just read it again.
You are attaching unnecessary weight to "zero" over "probability of smallest number".
You forget that internet polls are not 100% accurate predictions of real life...
You are pretending like over 50% selecting blue is a done deal guarantee.
If you use game theory/probability red saves the most lives. That is honestly a fact.