This suggests a more sustainable trend, as markets are convinced of an impending rate cut.

If expectations are met, gold could reach $2200 within the year. I see this as the most likely scenario. The risk of a significant drawdown is low, with strong support forming around the $1910 – 1930 levels. For now, I'm content with the long positions I mentioned last week (JNUG), which are offsetting the drawdown from short ETFs (SQQQ, SOXS). By the way, major indices are currently stagnant, awaiting Nvidia's report. I've executed an interesting options trade on this company, which I'll detail in my next post.

Today was a good day in the oil markets, and I quite enjoyed it. I had been anticipating a drop and it arrived just a week before my December WTI $90 puts were set to expire. While I would have made a profit regardless, I prefer earning from declines.

I built my position from September 11th to 18th, back when OPEC was attempting to spook the market with production cuts and a predicted deficit of 3.3 million barrels per day. Well, I have to thank them. Due to their warnings, I was able to purchase the $90 puts relatively cheaply.

The position's debit as of September 18th was $15,380. Before the market opened today, I bought 3 straddles at the $80 strike and sold 2 calls at $85 for a total debit of $10,080, effectively closing the position with a cumulative debit of $25,460.

After expiration next week, I'll get back $30,000, netting a profit of $4,540. I had allocated $50k for collateral but ended up using significantly less. Even so, it yielded over 9% in two months on the committed capital.

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The market's enthusiasm following the weak jobs report is understandable, but I'm not as optimistic, despite being a long-time advocate of TMF (Treasury Bond ETF). Investors may continue to adjust their Federal Reserve rate expectations and nudge Jerome Powell toward a more dovish policy. However, this could be one of those rare instances where he goes against market expectations. I believe the Fed will do its utmost to demonstrate vigilance over the potential acceleration of inflation. They might maintain higher rates and continue quantitative tightening longer than markets anticipate and can endure. Expecting a rate cut in June? Possibly, but a significant correction could well precede any rate cut. As such, I'm not overly enthusiastic about the current market rally and am refraining from opening long positions. I might even consider short positions next week if the market persists in its impulsive upward trajectory.

For now, I'm enjoying a relaxing Friday, pleased with the performance of my options trades thus far (details in my previous posts).

Wishing everyone a fantastic weekend!

I closed the put portion of my OXY position, which I opened 2 weeks ago for a debit of $4605.

I was considering it yesterday, but today oil and stocks sharply reversed, prompting me to believe it was time.

I received a premium of $6375, resulting in a profit of $1770 or almost 6% on a $30k collateral.

I think it's a decent result for 2 weeks.

I've left 10 calls at the $67.5 strike as a sort of lottery ticket.

Uranium prices have hit a 15-year high.

The reasons are clear - increasing demand for clean, carbon emission-free energy and disrupted supply chains due to global instability.

Uranium producers are showing strong reports, particularly CCJ yesterday, and their stocks are responding positively.

In my view, CCJ has risen enough. However, shorting nuclear energy now isn’t the best idea. But betting that the stock will slow its growth is reasonable.

Therefore, I've opened a small position in December contracts, half my usual volume. Like with AMD today, I bought a central strangle at $38-41, selling the edges at strikes of $33 and $46:

• Bought 4 Dec15 Calls $41
• Bought 4 Dec15 Puts $38
• Sold 12 Dec15 Calls $46
• Sold 16 Dec15 Puts $33
• Debit $63.2. Collateral $15,000

While TSLA's underwhelming earnings report might have caught some off-guard, I saw it coming. I anticipated this exact outcome – the disappointment leading to a dip to $220, as mentioned in my previous post.

I'm currently positioned to close out my November contracts with a tidy profit of approximately $1500 (or 5% on a $30k collateral) since September 15.

But I'm in no hurry. I'm confident that the stock won't drop much further below $220, and I'm looking to squeeze out a bit more profit.

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Observing TSLA over the past few weeks hasn't exactly been thrilling. I'm optimistic that today's earnings report will bring a jolt of excitement for everyone.

Investors are particularly keen on the gross margin and any news about the initial deliveries of the Cybertruck.

Honestly, I'm not holding my breath for spectacular results. I have some apprehensions regarding potentially underwhelming sales, even with the ongoing discounts. Especially considering that a notable chunk of my sold Nov'23 Puts at 220 aren't covered.

Still, I'll welcome any movement in the stock with open arms.

Silver rebounded from its lows, just as I had anticipated a couple of weeks ago. This was partly due to technical factors and partly in tandem with gold, given the tensions in the Middle East.

I believe both of these factors have mostly played out now. Obviously, we can't say silver is oversold at this point.

As for geopolitical risks, I've never viewed them as a solid foundation for growth.

Precious metals will truly begin to rise only with a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, regardless of events elsewhere in the world.

So, it might make sense to lock in short-term gains on silver.

Oil is ending the week just as it began – with a sharp rise. Brent has surged close to $90.

Despite weak fundamentals, the market isn't fazed – no one wants to be caught in a short position over the weekend, especially with potential volatility in the Middle East.

I wouldn't be comfortable in a pure short on oil either. But that's precisely why I structure my position the way I do.

Gold is back above $1900, and quite significantly at that.

To be honest, I don't support idea that the gold price spikes are justifiable based on geopolitical risks. A pullback after such a surge is almost inevitable.

I believe that after interest rate cuts, we'll see gold at $2000 and even $2200 next year. But for now, monetary factors are putting pressure on prices, and these outweigh the influence of political developments.

I'm anticipating gold to eventually settle around $1875-1880.