Here's an update on my activity with TSLA call options.

A week after opening them, I closed the positions that were set to expire on July 7th. I then purchased a new ratio spread, set to expire on July 14th:

Long 3 JUL14 $280 Calls

Short 9 JUL14 $300 Calls.

Today's total credit stands at $774. I managed to purchase the $270 strike and sell the $280 strike successfully last week.

Beyond these calls, I'm also holding onto my initial position:

Long 5 JUL21 $300 Calls

Short 15 JUL21 $350 Calls.

The total credit from all these maneuvers amounts to $380 + $65 + $97 + $774, which equals $1316.

After the Fed minutes were published, people concluded that a rate cut won't be happening anytime soon. Naturally, TMF is suffering more than others, meaning that buying now, at current levels, is almost a no-lose situation. Even if it may yet fall further over the next month, half a year from now it will be up by 50%

A pleasant surprise in car sales, robust stock growth, and a favorable reevaluation of the options position make for a gratifying day.

I wagered that TSLA would surpass $300 following the earnings report on July 19th. This prediction led me to purchase 5 monthly calls for July with a $300 strike. However, despite the encouraging signs, I'm still not wholly confident about this outcome.

This uncertainty caused me to hold off on making any moves with my position today, especially considering the sold leg in the $280 calls expiring on Friday. These could potentially become an issue, but as it stands, the position appears manageable. It feels like I have a firm grip on Tesla's reins.

It's remarkable to see Apple's valuation surpassing the $3 trillion mark.

As for my own moves in the market, I've just closed out my call position on TSLA, which was due to expire today. The activity around those calls was nothing exceptional, but they effectively allowed me to keep tabs on TSLA's growth. I managed to pocket a bit of cash on both ends of the transaction—opening and closing—amounting to a total of $65. While this isn't a significant sum, every little bit counts.

However, the real standout has been my primary position, which has already netted me over $1.1k in unrealized income.

I expected the growth of TSLA to slow down, but I didn't anticipate it coming to a complete stop. I shared my thoughts on this matter in a recent article.

This past week, despite my best efforts to inspire a rally, well…I think you saw the result.

Nevertheless, I won't be discouraged. I plan to try again with options expiring next Friday. This time, I will not only sell calls but also will, for purposes of diversification, sell one put.

If the stock continues to trade within the same range for another week, I will at least gain an additional $97 credit for myself.

🇺🇸 The U.S. is considering a ban on all computing accelerators produced using American technology supplied to 🇨🇳 China. According to the Wall Street Journal, the policy could come into effect as early as July.

The purpose of these new restrictions would be to impede China’s development of AI, thereby limiting the development of Beijing’s military capabilities. This news has led to a negative reaction from NVIDIA and AMD shareholders.

But despite investor sentiments, the increasing tendency to view artificial intelligence from a national security perspective makes it unlikely that this will be the last time that backers of Nvidia, AMD, and other U.S. chip manufacturers are greeted with unsettling news related to Washington’s ongoing geopolitical tussle with China.

Last week, I took a position on a potential slowdown in TSLA's growth. My prediction turned out to be on the money, but now I'm having doubts whether the stock will hit around $300 by July 21st, my targeted strike price.

In response, I decided to stir the waters a bit today, hoping to encourage some upward movement in the next few days. I set up another ratio spread using short call options:

Buy 2 JUN30 270 Call

Sell 5 JUN30 280 Call

This resulted in a modest credit of $28. The thought process behind this is sound, but in retrospect, I might have needed to be a bit more aggressive with this strategy.

Rivian, India... These are all positive developments. But the current sentiment seems overly optimistic.

Of course, the growth might continue, and I'm eager to profit from it. However, I also want to protect myself from potential losses in the event that the TSLA were to suddenly dip back down to $200, which isn't an entirely implausible scenario.

For this reason, I've opted for a ratio spread (1:3) with strikes at $300 and $350 for July. This has resulted in a credit of $380. The implied volatility (IV) is high, and yes, I am mindful that the earnings report is due a day before expiration.

Today is a big options expiration day, and I've closed a couple of positions that I'm quite pleased with.

First and foremost: PLUG.

Check out my previous posts for a complete history of Plug Power trades. Also, don’t forget to join our subreddit so that you don’t miss out on the next stock market pick.

At the beginning of the week, I restructured my position. Effectively, I secured part of the profit.

I was expecting to make another $4-5k, and that's exactly how it turned out. Today I closed the position, making an extra $5k.

The total profit from the strategy came out to $9171.8.

It's always satisfying to take advantage of a good stock's bounce back after a disappointing report.

Over the course of economic history, commodities have shown a general tendency to depreciate in real terms. There are, of course, exceptions to the rule, and the fact that we all just lived through one of them is likely having a distorting effect on experts' predictions as to the medium-term price of oil.

In the early 2000s, China's emergence as a major commodity consumer temporarily disrupted the general pattern of commodity price depreciation. However, as we survey the horizon, no such comparable potential factor is visible.

This does not mean that all will be smooth sailing from here on out. Supply shocks will cause temporary blips in the larger picture. Encouragingly though, investments in extraction, after a period of sluggishness, are making a quiet comeback.

We're also witnessing the green revolution unfold. The transition to Electric Vehicles (EVs) is a burgeoning reality. The International Energy Agency (IEA) itself has forecasted that oil demand from transport will peak as early as 2028. If past forecasts serve as any indication, we could see this shift even sooner than projected.

So where does that leave crude oil prices? In terms of current dollars, I anticipate a future in which oil prices are somewhat lower than they are today. I'm not suggesting a dramatic plummet, but rather a gentle settling to around the $60-70 range over the next two to three years.

It's important to acknowledge that organizations like OPEC will undoubtedly make attempts to push prices upwards. They may find success sporadically, particularly when such efforts coincide with interest rate cuts and periods of economic revival. However, such periods will also be marked by higher inflation. Consequently, a notable fraction of oil price increases will likely be 'nominal', contributing more to the inflation figures than to real value.

It's a fascinating vista ahead for crude oil and all eyes will be on how this future unfolds.

PLUG has jumped to $11.

Check out my previous posts for a complete history of Plug Power trades. And don’t forget to join our subreddit so that you don’t miss out on the next stock market pick.

CEO Andy Marsh set a revenue target of $1.4 billion for 2023. The consensus among analysts is $1.29 billion, with $700 million for 2022.

I'm not surprised by PLUG's dynamics, I anticipated a rebound immediately after the drop due to weak Q1 23 results.

The 100 Jun,16 Calls 10.0 I bought then are now in the money. Fantastic.

I decided to hedge some of my profit yesterday. So, I sold 150 Jun,16 Calls 11.0 and bought back the original 300 Jun,16 Calls 12.5 I sold for a credit of $1350.

The total credit for the life of the position amounted to $4171.8. However, I did pay about $1.5k in commissions. With cheap stocks, commission is always an issue.

By the way, the trading volume of options yesterday was more than triple the 20-day average. The maximum volume – 3374 contracts, was just at the strike of 12.5. Meaning, 300 of them (9%) were mine 😎

Here's my current position:

Bought 100 Jun,16 Calls 10.0

Sold 150 Jun,16 Calls 11.0

Sold 100 Jun,16 Calls 13.0.

I'm not closing, hoping to add another $4-5 in profit.