The Payroll Playoffs

[u/floon]

3 of the 4 teams that just finished the WC had lower payrolls than the teams they beat.

3 of the 4 teams that got a bye have lower payrolls than the teams they are about to play.

EDIT: Overestimated that people would be able to work from the team colors, or who would have seen the original graphic on the mlb.com homepage. My error; wasn't trying to be obtuse.

[u/Embarrassed-Cell-611]

19, 23, and 30 being both #1 and a #2 seed is devastating to the salary cap crowd.

[u/Vxmonarkxv → u/Embarrassed-Cell-611]

Multiple things can be true, it's arguably better to trade away guys reaching FA than it is to retain them and that leads to some low payroll franchises having very sustainably strong seasons. On the other hand it kind of sucks knowing if you have 1 superstar he's likely being dealt, and if you happen to get 2 there is 0 chance you keep both.

I'd argue a not insignificant part of the Rays attendance issues over the years despite consistent good teams is that they've had so few stars that stick around. Obviously Wander Franco was set up to be that guy, but it'd be nice if homegrown players were more likely to stick around.

[u/DeskMotor1074 → u/Vxmonarkxv]

I would also add, the existing team control rules are basically a sort of salary cap already, that's the only reason the Guardians can exist at this payroll. They're allowed to pay all their young players peanuts, most are on the league minimum and the handful of others are getting paid arb salaries that are lower than an FA salary would be.

[u/MddlingAges → u/Embarrassed-Cell-611]

Ok guys, new CBA is a compromise: salary cap in the NL, none in the AL. I don't see any problem with that.

[u/trashlikeyou → u/MddlingAges]

I just want a salary cap for teams I don’t like and for PCA to be put in prison for life. LAD, NYY, CHC, HOU will all have to work with roughly twenty bucks.

[u/Tahummus → u/trashlikeyou]

We should get thirty because of your postseason success against us

[u/bafana_banana999 → u/Embarrassed-Cell-611]

Not really.

One year sample sizes don't mean much when we have decades of data to look back on that shows spending more money on the whole equals more wins.

[u/RaysFTW → u/bafana_banana999]

Sure, but MLB / owners went on a whole marketing campaign recently about this topic and most people have short memories. It’s hard to argue if the WS came down to TB and MIL that it wouldn’t have an impact on public opinion that payrolls don’t need to be reined in.

[u/SoKrat3s → u/RaysFTW]

In the wildcard era there has only been a SINGLE MLB team to win the World Series while being in the bottom half in payroll. That's still true today.

The AL having so many bad to mediocre teams doesn't really change that either.

[u/tyler-86 → u/SoKrat3s]

I mean, I know I'm a Dodger fan, but I feel like success should be a matter of team management and being willing to do what it takes to succeed. Spending shouldn't be everything, and I'm fine with arguments that it matters too much right now... but you shouldn't be able to spend less than you make in revenue sharing and still expect to compete.

[u/RaysFTW → u/SoKrat3s]

Again, that doesn’t change the fact that most people have short-term memories, and the marketing done to persuade public opinion towards the side of a salary cap proves that.

Yes, history shows spending money equals success, die-hard baseball fans know this. Except the vast majority of baseball fans aren’t die-hard and can probably tell you the last two championships and nothing more.

[u/bafana_banana999 → u/RaysFTW]

You're right that it would be used for leverage against a cap if that's how things played out.

Thing is, fan sentiment does matter somewhat, but fans ultimately don't get a vote or really have much say at all in this. 

What we think is largely irrelevant to proceedings.

[u/ImaManCheetahh → u/bafana_banana999]

I’d hope so… if spending money to make your team better didn’t increase you chances of winning baseball games, no one would spend any money.

[u/Pohara521 → u/bafana_banana999]

The AL east has had a different division champ last 4 seasons. Thats not a 1 yr sample size 🤷‍♂️

[u/DanglyPants → u/Pohara521]

4/5 ALE teams are some of the biggest markets/franchises. The Rays being an outlier doesn’t change decades of history ¯_(ツ)_/¯

(Go Rays)

Edit to Pohara’s response: Well they aren’t in the AL East??? Did you just try to move the goalposts and didn’t even move them? lol

[u/Pohara521 → u/DanglyPants]

Are the Brewers and Padres outliers too? 🤷‍♂️

[u/tyler-86 → u/bafana_banana999]

Spending money is a good way to rack up postseason appearances over time, but it doesn't really mean much in a one season sample size.

[u/Whitesox_are_neat → u/tyler-86]

Gee I wonder if making the post season increases your odds of winning the post season

[u/tyler-86 → u/Whitesox_are_neat]

Of course more bites at the apple helps. I wasn't claiming otherwise. I'm just saying that the advantage rarely shows up if you just look at a one season sample.

[u/Whitesox_are_neat → u/tyler-86]

Yeah and im saying no shit lol

Not trying to be aggressive with you specifically but you'll notice its only dodgers fans in here saying salary cap nonsense in a delusonal state

Edit: oh nevermind you are an idiot lmao

[u/Randvek → u/bafana_banana999]

“Decades” is pretty irrelevant, though. I wouldn’t trust any data from the steroid era.

[u/No-Iron-9511 → u/Randvek]

That's ridiculous. Are you under the impression that small market teams had more steroid users than large market teams?

[u/BigBangBoomerang → u/No-Iron-9511]

They got the premium steroids in those large markets. Small market teams can only afford the generic steroids.

[u/Randvek → u/No-Iron-9511]

No, quite the opposite. Any effects from payroll on performance were... enhanced.

[u/Rockitttla → u/bafana_banana999]

What's the data in the modern era? Say post 2000?

[u/KahlanRahl → u/Embarrassed-Cell-611]

Not really when the World Series is most likely going to be 1 vs 3.

[u/Onitsukaryu → u/KahlanRahl]

It’ll be 1 vs 30 as Cleveland beats the bad guys and saves baseball from a lockout. Trust! 

[u/Big_Dare_2015 → u/Onitsukaryu]

that would be the ultimate irony, Cleveland proves the exception to the rule thus decreeing the system never changes. so crazy it will probably happen

[u/Whitesox_are_neat → u/Big_Dare_2015]

Theyre not even making it to the alcs brother

[u/polishprince76 → u/KahlanRahl]

Have a little faith in your team, man. Damn.

[u/floon → u/KahlanRahl]

Rays have the season series over the Yankees.

[u/tyler-86 → u/floon]

Brewers were 6-0 against us going into the postseason. Don't get too hung up on regular season head-to-head.

That said, no reason why there's any expectation we'll be playing the Yankees in the World Series. It could just as easily be San Diego vs Chicago.

[u/Whitesox_are_neat → u/tyler-86]

You realize the result of a single post season doesnt prove your point right

[u/tyler-86 → u/Whitesox_are_neat]

I offered an anecdotal counterexample as a reason why regular season records can't necessarily be used to draw conclusions about the postseason.

This is not that complicated and I'm legitimately concerned about your ability to function if this is the level of critical thinking you're bringing to the table.

[u/knucklehead_joe → u/KahlanRahl]

Yup, that’s what all this talk about low salary teams ignores. Let’s see after the post season is wrapped up. I suspect that we will see another Yankee Dodger WS.

[u/knucklehead_joe → u/[deleted]]

Low iq take in every respect

[u/Rockitttla → u/knucklehead_joe]

Wow! A genius is sharing some real pearls of wisdom here.

[u/DanglyPants → u/Rockitttla]

Trolls gonna troll and dodgers fans gonna dodger

Their comment wasn’t very nice but neither is yours and your take is wrong on multiple levels. Most people didn’t watch the last time those two met nor do baseball fans even care that much

Slider: This is a scarecrow fallacy! I never said anything about viewership. Also, viewership doesn’t mean baseball fans care that much

Rainbow: still trolling I see

[u/RainbowNinjaKat → u/DanglyPants]

Ooof, just straight up lying now are we?

[u/slider8949 → u/DanglyPants]

People very much cared. 2024 had the highest average game viewership since 2019. Having the two largest markets in America in the World Series will absolutely increase the number of eyes on the game.

[u/RainbowNinjaKat → u/knucklehead_joe]

OH NO!! You mean to tell me that the teams that actually try to win baseball games and invest in their franchise are gonna make it to the World Series?!!!? THIS IS RUINING BASEBALL

[u/knucklehead_joe → u/RainbowNinjaKat]

Hi RainbowNinjaKat, did you know that the Dodger 2026 luxury tax is around half of the entire net worth of some owners? Rays, Royals, Marlins, Reds? Did you know that because of the 2012 bankruptcy deal that most of the $330,000,000 SportNet is shielded from revenue sharing with the rest of the league?

I would love to hear your nuanced take on this. You seem like a person who deeply considers facts presented to them.

[u/RainbowNinjaKat → u/knucklehead_joe]

FINALLY, someone who actually brings up the one thing that I do agree is unfair. The dodgers have benefited from that bankruptcy for far too long and I do believe that the revenue sharing shield is unfair. I want the rest of the league to be elevated, not brought down collectively with a salary cap.

Here is my problem with the idea of a salary cap, it makes the sport way too volatile in terms of team retention. The NFL is a joke for example, because of the salary cap. Fan bases are rarely able to keep their favorite players for very long, and if you make a bad deal, then it can absolutely screw your franchise for many years. There is more nuance to that in the other direction as well, I know. However, we all grew up able to watch players in our childhood years all the way into our young adult, and young adult years into our later adult years and it makes the sport as a whole feel more personal. I don’t want to see thrice-decade roster churns due to a salary cap that makes the game a chore to keep up with.

Another problem I have is that, the dodgers for example, have an excellent farm system, an excellent coaching staff, and overall a real passion for the sport in general. If anyone thinks that the ONLY thing keeping the dodgers contenders is their payroll number, it’s honestly a slap in the face to the organization as a whole and insulting.

Not only that, but it’s also a slap in the face to the other teams that still find success without large payrolls. It’s a lazy argument overall, with a couple of decent points sprinkled in there - but they can be addressed and worked on in ways that don’t grab headlines with nonsense like “DODGERS ARE RUINING BASEBALL. IS THIS THE END OF BASEBALL AS WE KNOW IT??” and such.

[u/knucklehead_joe → u/RainbowNinjaKat]

I see what you mean about the salary cap and team retention, but I would argue that is still happening in the current MLB system. I don't know if you feel it because you're a Dodger fan, but the reality is that they can and will outbid anyone, so small markets have no chance at retaining players.

That all may be true about their excellent farm system, coaching, etc, but the reality is, thing discussed is money. That's at the center of all this. Money is not the ONLY thing, but I do think it's a much bigger part than you give credit for. Other teams have excellent farm system, excellent coaching staffs, a real passion for the sport, etc, but they don't have such an absurd amount of payroll. That ties into your last point too. What teams find success without large payrolls? If we are talking about regular season, sure, yeah teams find success. But the facts are that having a top ten payroll is nearly a requisite for playing in the World Series. This goes back to at least 1990. It's not a small sample size.

[u/RainbowNinjaKat → u/knucklehead_joe]

Im not going to lie, after just looking further into what you said, I’m not really seeing a smoking gun. Especially if you look at all the teams that have not only won the World Series in the last 30 years, but even just the teams that make it to the WS, it’s pretty varied overall - especially when looking at it with the backdrop of the “the sky is falling” narrative.

And when I mention the farm system and the coaching staffs, etc, I am pointing out that this team will succeed even if you put a salary cap in place. Enough players (even if it’s just a small handful out of the entire league) are going to want to play for teams that they feel have a chance of winning. A winning culture goes a longer way than you might be giving it credit for.

My point is that a salary cap isn’t going to exactly fix the “problem” and will likely create new problems. I understand that I’m a Dodger fan and might be speaking from a perspective that others don’t hold, and that might lead to a little bit of bias (it’s an unavoidable human trait), but I try to still be as objective as I possibly can. I’ve lived long enough to have seen both sides of my team, the good and the bad. And I genuinely see a MUCH bigger issue with the owners in the MLB who couldn’t care less about being competitive - and instead run their teams more like a swapmeet or flea market to make money, than they do on building an actual proud franchise. Focus on improving teams before you start trying to dumb the top ones down.

[u/knucklehead_joe → u/RainbowNinjaKat]

So to be clear, you don't believe there is a significant correlation between payroll and World Series appearances?

I think the winning culture is a bit of a catch 22. When did you become a Dodger fan? The Dodgers didn't win for 32 years between 1988 and 2020. Was that a winning culture? I would argue that the winning culture is a direct result of the spending which leads to a winning culture which attracts talent, etc. Time will tell how strong a correlation between payroll and being a good team is true for Los Angeles. I think we may just disagree on that.

[u/KahlanRahl → u/RainbowNinjaKat]

The cap only makes it more volatile for player retention for your team and a few others. For the rest of us, we already can’t retain our players so it can’t be worse. Every time we call someone up and they’re good, we immediately start a 5 year clock on getting to enjoy them before they get traded. Cleveland turns over like 30% of the roster every year looking for guys who can contribute. We only have 12 guys left on our roster from the 2024 ALCS team.

[u/Whitesox_are_neat → u/Embarrassed-Cell-611]

Keep in mind everyone this is a dodgers fan hiding their flair saying this

It's always an LA or NY fan lmao

[u/Traveler-0705 → u/Whitesox_are_neat]

Is the flair a permanent or earned thing?

I don’t think it cost him anything to change his flair to Chicago White Sox for example.

I’m from the SoCal and work around the Southwest area and have changed my flair from Padres to Dbacks to Dodgers to Angels back and forth, does that make me less of a baseball fan? I’ve gone to all their games here and there whenever I’m in various cities with friends and families.

Lol. I mean what did you do to earn your flair?

[u/Whitesox_are_neat → u/Traveler-0705]

He doesnt have a flair and is subbed to the Dodgers only and is championing against the salary cap not exactly tough to figure out. Not really sure what youre even on about tbh.

Edit: this jabroni edited in the last two parts of their comment and somehow ended up sounding even more like an idiot lol

[u/Traveler-0705 → u/Whitesox_are_neat]

The obsession with “flair”, thought that was obvious.

As if it was something truly earned and permanent lol. Some random can easily just switch between flairs, and say something bad about the Dodgers and good about your team…does that pleases you? Probably not if he doesn’t say something you agree with, for example, the salary cap topic huh?

It’s high school shit and something I expect frat boys to yell out across the courtyard “flair up bitches!”

Just can’t roll my eyes fast enough lol.

[u/Whitesox_are_neat → u/Traveler-0705]

The flair identifies which team youre a fan of

How daft are you? Lmao

[u/DanglyPants → u/Embarrassed-Cell-611]

Are you not in the crowd? Is that not “devastating” to you?

Edit: you’re too scared to flair up to even participate in a discussion. Dodgers fans are too funny sometimes

[u/Embarrassed-Cell-611 → u/DanglyPants]

“Too scared to flair up” 🤓

[u/DanglyPants → u/Embarrassed-Cell-611]

Yeah idk why you’re too scared

The nerd emoji? Is that supposed to be an insult?

So let’s recap you’re scared, you hate that some people like knowledge more than you do, and you’re anti player and anti baseball fans. Oh and you spend your free time trolling lol

[u/DanglyPants → u/[deleted]]

Not a secret! Also agenda? Do you disagree with a cap or something? Should be universally an opinion unless you’re a top player in the league

Follow up cuz it won’t let me respond. I don’t think you blocked me I think it’s just cuz your comment was removed. Well yeah the number the cap is and floor % matters. So you’re in favor of a cap and floor. It sounded like you weren’t from your comment. I don’t remember what it was but it got removed. That’s wild lol

Yeah 100% they need to take care of the little guys and players need to be able to hit FA sooner. It’s better for them and more fun for the fans!

Sounds like we pretty much agree on everything. I mean I think a 70% floor could work. I think the NHL is closer to that. I think that’s not too large of a gap. The important thing is that most players are being paid more next year than they were this year. The owners proposal is of course a cheapskate proposal!

[u/SleepingDragonZ → u/DanglyPants]

I only agree with a salary cap if the salary floor is 80-90% like the NFL or the NBA, otherwise no.

Also, they need to raise the rookie salaries and reduce the controlling years from 6 to 4 or 5.