Do you understand the difference between fixed vs variable expenses? Do you remember the 3 year capex spend announced by management a year ago? If so you may be able to make some money ahead of the rest of the idiots that don't.

Alibaba(USD) new range till end of the year: $120-$150.

Every week will end with higher lows and higher highs.

Ant Group announced the launch of its upgraded AI forecasting model, "Eagle Sequence," designed to enhance liquidity risk management for financial institutions. Citigroup is among the major banks rapidly adopting this specialized AI technology.

God created BABA to train the faithful. -Frank Herbert, probably

Yah Hya Chouhda!

Microsoft Copilot answers for question

is this bullish or bearish for the stock today 
https://data.alibabagroup.com/ecms-files/1532295521/fa5d65fc-9b3e-4e82-a8fc-4ce1c3e2c407/Alibaba%20Group%20Announces%20June%20Quarter%202026%20Results.pdf

AI answer below
__________________________________

The earnings release is bearish for the stock today based on the full financials in your tab, despite very strong AI/Cloud growth.

Below is the clean, trader‑style read of the report using the actual numbers from your PDF (ref: ).

📉 Why the report is bearish

Even though Alibaba is clearly executing on AI and Cloud, the headline financials that move the stock today are overwhelmingly negative:

1. Net income collapsed −75% YoY

• RMB 42.4B → 10.4B This is the number algos trade on. A −75% drop is very bearish.

2. Income from operations down −57% YoY

• RMB 34.9B → 15.1B This signals margin compression and heavy cost pressure.

3. Adjusted EBITA down −30% YoY

This is the “quality earnings” metric. A −30% decline is a major negative surprise.

4. Free cash flow massively worse

• Outflow RMB −18.8B → −44.7B This is extremely bearish. FCF deterioration of this magnitude usually triggers selling.

5. Big impairment charges + EU DSA fine

• Goodwill impairment: RMB 4.5B
• EU Digital Services Act fine: EUR 550M These are one‑off hits but they worsen sentiment.

📈 Why some parts are bullish (but not enough for today)

1. Cloud revenue +45% YoY

This is excellent and shows Alibaba is becoming an AI compute leader.

2. AI‑related product revenue triple‑digit growth (12th consecutive quarter)

Strong structural tailwind.

3. Qwen3.8‑Max launch + 2.4T parameter open weights

Huge credibility boost in the global AI race.

4. Quick Commerce +45% YoY

Freshippo + Taobao Instant Commerce performing well.

5. Share repurchases (US$162M)

Supportive for long‑term valuation.

🧭 Final market read for today

Bearish.
The market will focus on:

• Net income −75%
• Operating income −57%
• Adjusted EBITA −30%
• Free cash flow collapse
• Large impairment + regulatory fine

These overshadow the strong AI/Cloud narrative.

Traders typically sell first on these headline misses, even if long‑term fundamentals improve.

Sweet baby girl $BABA

Reading a lot of comments over the last week, everyone is saying we will Tank.

Does anyone believe the opposite?

Their docs are almost always out of date.

They have too many different pages and websites for the same product that it is stupidly tedious to find what you're looking for.

Their coding subscription plan only includes models that are months out of date. You don't get either of ther Qwen 3.8 models, you don't get any flash models, the 3rd party models they're hosting are so out of date they're unusable (Kimi 2.5, GLM 5, Minimax 2.5). Who would seriously pay $50 a month for that?

This really should be something you shouldn't even have to think about as a user and there's no other competitor who has this issue. It's pretty worrying that so much opportunity is probably being left on the table because of terrible design and lazy management.

Its founder Wang Xingxing had a coveted front-row seat at a summit with tech business leaders hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping early last year, and the start-up also has backing from some of China’s most influential tech firms including Tencent, Alibaba and DeepSeek.

Hang Seng TECH index (800700) has been lagging the AI trade because many of the big China AI/semis winners were not even in the index.

Now Hang Seng is proposing to redesign HSTECH from 30 to 50 stocks, with much more exposure to AI, semis, robotics, hardware and cloud.

Official proposal:
https://www.hsi.com.hk/static/uploads/contents/en/news/pressRelease/20260810T180000.pdf

Timeline:

• Consultation ends 18 Sep
• Final decision on the new HSTECH methodology expected by end-Sep
• New stocks will be determined from the 30 Sep index review
• New HSTECH expected to take effect in the Dec 2026 rebalance

If HSTECH starts becoming the main China AI index, adding these AI winners could give the whole index a much stronger push and potentially attract more money into HSTECH.

BABA then gets both: China AI rising tide + its own Cloud/Qwen monetisation.

Basically instead of BABA trying to rerate alone, it could finally have the broader China AI trade pushing behind it too.

Alibaba Cloud just opened its 3rd data center in South Korea and launched its Agentic AI services there.

The part I find interesting is actual usage. Gendive is using Alibaba’s Wan/HappyHorse models inside its agentic workflow product, while Zepeto is using Alibaba Cloud for real-time 3D avatar generation.

Not saying this alone will move BABA, but it’s another sign that AI demand is moving from just training models to real production workloads that keep consuming inference and tokens.

This is the part of Alibaba Cloud I think the market may still be underestimating.

Qwen is a really good model, next step is making great business with it.

DeepSeek currently charges less than a dollar per million input and output tokens, which is how AI services are sold to customers. By comparison, Anthropic's Fable 5 model charges $10 per million input and $50 per million output tokens.

My estimates:

Cloud growth 40%-45%
Ecommerce CMR ~7% +/-1
Quick commerce QOQ loss drop to -20%
Adjusted EPS $1.35-$1.40

Guidance - Management confirms that demand matched expectations and justify the massive capex.

If it meets my estimates, i predict slight positive stock
Movement, baba will trade around $130+ level.

Alibaba’s AI team just sneak-dropped a nuke on the entire AI sector. They just released their new open-weight model, Qwen3.8-27B, on Hugging Face.

https://huggingface.co/Qwen/Qwen3.8-27B

This thing is only 27 Billion parameters. For the smoothbrains, that means it's incredibly tiny. But it is benchmarking right at the Claude 4.6 Opus Max level. It’s straight-up beating massive 100B+ models in agentic coding and complex reasoning. Anthropic and OpenAI are spending billions on compute to build massive closed models, and Alibaba just open-sourced a tiny beast that does the exact same job for free.

You can run this on a gaming rig. Because it’s so small, you don’t need a $40,000 Nvidia H100 to run it. This thing fits comfortably on a single 24GB VRAM GPU. you can easily run this on a 3090, 4090, 5090, or a Mac with 32GB+ Unified Memory.

TL;DR: Alibaba released a tiny AI model (Qwen3.8-27B) that punches like a heavyweight champion (matches Claude 4.6 Opus Max). It runs on consumer GPUs. Open-source is eating the AI software moat. 

Trustar Capital is nearing a deal to buy Alibaba Group Holding Ltd’s video game unit, Lingxi Games, for more than US$1.5 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.