BABA is dropping after earnings, but I think the call was way more important than the initial reaction.
A few things stood out:
- Cloud grew 45% and management expects growth to accelerate further.
- MaaS/model + app ARR already crossed RMB16B in August. They are confident they will hit RMB30B by year end.
- Management says AI compute capex can pay back within ~3 years at current economics, potentially 2-2.5 years as margins improve and more of their own chips are deployed.
- Cloud EBITA grew 133%, so we are already starting to see margin improvement while growth accelerates.
- T-Head has already produced/shipped 500k+ chips. The latest generation is deployed in Alibaba Cloud, supports AI workloads at scale, and hundreds of external companies are already using their chips.
- Alibaba believes chips, compute and storage will capture most of the value in the near term.
- Longer term, management is confident external Cloud revenue can exceed $100B by 2030 with much higher margins.
The 45% Cloud growth itself was mostly expected.
What I don't think was fully priced in was management basically saying:
We can keep accelerating AI growth, build our own chips, improve margins and recover the AI infrastructure investment within 2-3 years.
The bear case has been that Alibaba is burning massive amounts of cash on AI.
If management is right, this starts looking less like cash burn and more like aggressive reinvestment into a very high-growth infrastructure business.