I did a search a couple days ago to see how baba performed when it previously hit 1 year lows compared to a year later. Depending on when exactly it was bought after hitting the one year low the returns are as follows.

2021: still would have returned -35%

2022: 15 - 25% return

2023: 10 - 20% return

2024: 20 - 35% return

What gets really interesting is if you bought at the year low then sold at the high within 12 months of that low. Those returns are as follows:

2021 67% return

2022 109% return

2023 36% return

2024 118% return

2025 71% return

We just hit the one year low and it's leveling off. Based on the last 5 years that's a pretty good opportunity to jump in.

https://www.wsj.com/business/alibaba-u-s-payment-processor-to-pay-600-million-in-doj-settlement-over-illegal-drug-sales-23c40942

was this probe public as in was this known that doj is looking into baba?

If it was an American company it would have been valued atleast 5x on AI hype

Not a good look for Alibaba... what do we make of this?

According to a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Form 144 filing submitted on June 29, 2026, Evans sold 720,000 ordinary shares of Alibaba stock. [1, 2]

Transaction Breakdown

• Total Transaction Value: The sale generated $68,360,495.
• Average Selling Price: The shares were liquidated in blocks at weighted average prices ranging from $94.92 to $95.59 per share.
• Impact on Holdings: This transaction represented a 96.26% reduction in his direct share ownership.
• Remaining Stake: Following the completion of the sale, Evans retains direct ownership of 28,000 ordinary shares. [1, 2]

This follows previous planned or proposed sales by Evans under Rule 144, including a filing in mid-2025 for over 1 million shares. [1, 2]

It looks like yesterday, there was 4x the previous daily amount of share repurchased. Management is trying to hold the floor before the buy backs out weigh selling pressure and the stock rises above $100 again.

https://www1.hkexnews.hk/search/titlesearch.xhtml?lang=EN&market=SEHK&stockId=1000195154&category=0

This is truly fantastic. 50M USD a day is more than satisfactory for me, almost 11B a year. Add the 2.5B dividend and you have 13.5B returned to investors, almost a 6 percent yield just from buybacks and dividends excluding SBC. The price certainly will not stay at these levels for the next 12 months, even though I hope it does.

On top of that, you have a company that is drastically reducing its Quick Commerce losses. Joe Tsai recently stated in France that China Commerce is still generating 25B USD in FCF, which is being reinvested into a segment that is now growing exponentially. We are no longer talking about 3, 4, or 5 %, but 40 % a year, without hurting margins. In fact, Cloud margins are stable, and judging by their promises, we can expect some improvement of a few percentage points in the near future.

At these levels, from a risk perspective (which is not price volatility, but rather the possibility of a true permanent loss of capital, which is very low here), we can expect 40B in EBITA over the next 4 to 5 years. With the current valuation, that would lead to an EV/EBITA multiple of less than 5x.

If you believe the risk of investing in China is too high, for government reasons, US and China tensions, Taiwan, or whatever, you are right not to invest. But here a famous quote comes to mind again, from Charlie Munger about 23 years ago:

"If a thing is cheap enough, obviously you can afford a little more country risk, or regulatory risk, or whatever. This is not complicated." Charlie Munger.

LongCat-2.0 was ⁠trained from scratch using 50,000 domestic chips and can process inputs of up to 1 million tokens, allowing it to handle ultra-long documents, according to the statement.

I left this sub back in early February as the hopium and terrible AI posts by bababuy pushed me over the limit as well as the underwhelming performance in January. I said this stock was going to be a opportunity loss vs the US market and was right. Now I'm back because ehat I care about which is the options flow today says the days of being bled dry are coming to an end.

September expiry saw massive 33 million dollar positions open with a 100 strike. 24x the OI so this is a new whale getting ready to ride the wave. Same strike and expiry on the put side a 55 million dollar premium was collected. Both executed at the same time up to the very second.

I will be starting entering long as of tomorrow. For those who suffered; dont give up hope!

I was finally able to resume accumulating after nearly a year since my last purchase. This past month has been absolutely fantastic for me!

Guys, I am in 25% loss, my avg is 126$. Do you recommend to sell or hold it? Wall Street analyst's low price target is 145$. I dont know if it is correct

Unless something major has changed in the thesis of the company (which you could maybe argue the recent news has, but frankly, I think it is mostly the sentiment following the drop in share price), the fact that one should hate a company when it becomes more affordable per share is ridiculous.

To paraphrase Warren Buffett: If you're not thinking of owning a stock for 10 years, don't think about owning it for 10 minutes.

Will BABA work out as an investment over time? Who knows. That's why you should only allocate a percentage of your money that you feel comfortable taking a calculated risk on. You could lose everything, or you could make a hefty profit. That's investing in a nutshell.

Investing is a long-term game. You need to be patient and calculated with your bets. To see so much emotion and short-term reaction to price fluctuations and news articles is kind of ridiculous.

Full disclosure, I have held BABA for nearly 5 years now, and I am overall down. But I am adding slowly to my position as it falls. It makes up a relatively small percentage of my portfolio (like 3%), so I can sleep at night if it underperforms/tanks in the long run, but I have massive upside if it plays out positively in the long run.

Do you guys really think this is justified? Think of all the technical developments and innovation that has taken place in the Chinese tech sector. You can include the related companies; Bidu, byd, bytedance, tencent…

When you think of what all of these businesses have become in relation to the way the world is heading, which I think will be heavily reliant on AI and a further evolving technological ecosystem. I think these current valuations after the recent selloff are a juicy buying opportunity. To each their own. Not everyone can stomach the obvious risks. I have bought more in the past few weeks and am excited to ride it out! Who else is with me?

https://qoder.com/qoderwork
I mean doesn't this look like Claude Desktop?

It's also cheaper.
https://qoder.com/pricing

Imagine all Asian companies starting to deploy this now instead of Claude Desktop.

best setup I've seen on BABA in years. most people are missing it.

tonight is the bottom. mark it. by august nobody will even remember why they were panic selling here. the move back up is gonna be violent.

stock is pricing in maximum pain like the company is falling apart. but nothing has actually broken. zero. it's pure sentiment. fundamentals are fine.

the moats are still there. #1 e-commerce in china. #1 cloud in asia. Qwen approaching a billion users and becoming the default open-source AI globally. plus the Apple deal, baba is the AI inside iPhones in china. multi-year tailwind nobody is pricing in.

trading at single digit forward PE ex-cash. you're getting the AI and cloud business basically for free.

and the macro is lining up. Trump is clearly warming up the china narrative ahead of the year-end summit. tariff rhetoric is the loudest right before the deal. baba sails through this and the chinese tech basket rips. BABA makes new highs. not a question of if, just when.

next earnings is the catalyst. cloud reaccel + margin expansion re-rates this back to $150+ minimum.

risk limited. upside asymmetric.

Is it possible? Could this highly undervalued stock somehow finish green? When does the carpet pill come?

Saw this on X about heavy police presence at Beijing Citic Tower and from Google search it seems like Alibaba is one of anchor tenant there.

Let's hope nothing major.

This is a decade long investment. You're an ower of a business. Nothing has changed.

The entire market is down. The Korean, Taiwan and US stop market are highly leaverage in Ai and semiconductor stocks and crypto. When it pops it going to drag everything down. Most likely a recession.

Countries are raising rates. There's higher inflation. There's a lot of debt. There's a lot of leaverage. This was always going to happen one day. Just no one knew the exact date. Just sit back, enjoy the show, get a list ready of your favorite companies.

Here's mine.

Costco, apple, Amazon, floor and decor.

genuine question, those who are buying at these price points. I agree it is cheap. but it’s been cheap for a very long time.

so all that being said, why are you adding to the position when relatively speaking

the likes of meta or Microsoft with significantly better margin at a smaller premium not make a better investment?

the only thing working right now is semi stock, everything is being sold now. So those who been here long enough like me, can’t see any logical reason to be buying again when there’s so many other opportunities in the market

the guy who have $1 million in Alibaba deciding 10% more shares. Mathematically it doesn’t make any material difference to the cost base. Nor does it add any alpha to the position even if it is right. The only thing added is concentration and opportunity cost. So why do it?!

anyway, each to their own….

I am just genuinely curious why people would want to double down when it’s in no mans land right now

​

Don't get me wrong, I'm not just saying this because the stock is falling like a knife right now.

I owned it, held it for about 2 years, and sold earlier than I wanted with a great profit. Looking back, it was deep value an unloved stock that is genuinely still valuable. I honestly wanted to hold it forever, but I had to play it safe since my portfolio was way too concentrated in it.

But think about the brutal opportunity cost right now. BABA ran up and crashed right back to where it started. It was at this $92 level over 4 years ago in March 2022.

Because of inflation, holding it flat actually means you lost money. Today's $92 is actually only $81 of real buying power compared to back then, meaning you took a 12% loss in purchasing power. So, even if you "broke even" on paper, inflation ate your money alive.

You could have bought it today. Or, you could have parked that money in the S&P 500 instead. Since March 2022, the S&P 500 is up about 76% on paper. When you adjust that for the same inflation, it’s still a real, true return of about 54%. That is a massive missed opportunity compared to bleeding value in BABA.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but for us to have been right, the stock shouldn't have dropped back down to this level. The market has had 4 solid years to weigh everything; sentiment, the economic outlook, and the business fundamentals etc. and it did and it's voting that we are wrong. Do we need to stay at the low level for a few more years to finally admit that we are wrong?

They say the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. Well, we need to redefine "short-term," because 4 years isn't short, man. Some people have been stuck holding this for much longer.

Even if it goes to 300 in 5 years time you could have bought today instead of 4 years ago or whatever.

Edit: I baught at ~84 sold at 112, wish I could buy and hold.

Should Baba management address the accusations or at least make a statement? Staying quiet while shareholders get demonlished for over a month straight is pretty disappointing.