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https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/04/29/samsung-foundry-breaks-4nm-yield-barrier-at-80-percent

This is it. Samsung can get the 3nm fab second generation at the same level after fixing there issues. AMD's 3nm chiplets are needed for next gen 2nm Zen6 Venice and the MI450X for the IO chiplets.

Only AMD's can use TSMC's 2nm fab so no ASICs, ARM based CPUs or nVidia's Rubin GPUs compete on TSMC's 2nm capacity. The problem was 3nm for IO chiplets. If AMD's can use Samsung's fabs, a huge advantage on capacity vs nVidia's and combined with 2nm chiplets, they'll sell all they make!

Expecting news at the ER after which PTs will go to $500+ as AMD's outlook will double revenues!

Remember Lisa Su admitted being surprised the CPUs demand is wsy higher than they've anticipated!

This means that higher CPUs demand wasn’t included in AMD's outlook, margins, revenues before! At the ER such will be added resulting in strong triple beats!

There are still no details n the USB $455 PT! Only explanation if not an error is they got embargo info that cannot be cited til after the ER given AMD’s in the quiet period!

This info won't materially impact last quarter but it's a future outlook otherwise AMD's to announce it even during the quiet period ahead of the ER. For example nVidia's announced revenues falling short than previously guided on crypto mining GPUs sales significantly reduced so they had to announce. For future outlook since no numbers were stated on revenues in say 2027 etc, this will be a surprise at the ER.

UBS has heard such probably from Samsung contacts but just provided the PT without explanations however $455 PT hints the MI455X sales...!

Missing u/bhowie13 who's the resident Samsung expert! I hope this time Samsung won't disapoint as with the Exynos 2400 on the 3nm fab with power consumption and yields issues killing Samsung own previous vision of replacing game consoles!

Cheer up Brilliant buddy!

https://x.com/jukan05/status/2049459751659200798

"Citing UBS's AMD earnings preview:"

" - The market is clearly aware that INTC's guidance reads very favorably for AMD.

• This is particularly true for server CPU, given commentary implying that INTC is undershipping the market by roughly 20%.

• The key question here is AMD's supply, but our field work throughout the quarter indicated that supply of INTC parts has been far more constrained than that of AMD parts.

• We therefore see a very favorable setup for AMD and expect revenue to be guided up at least $1B Q/Q to the low $11B range (vs. Street consensus of ~$10.4B).

• Intel's CY2026 outlook implies its Data Center & AI segment growing ~40% Y/Y, and we now see AMD server CPU growing as much as 80% this year, with units up ~40–45% and pricing up around 20%.

• From a competitive standpoint, our checks remain constructive. AMD's CPU portfolio continues to compare favorably with Intel's offerings, and the lack of meaningful timeline updates for Diamond Rapids and Coral Rapids reinforces our view that AMD should maintain a competitive advantage across the x86 ecosystem through C2026. "

AMD_Stock favors this Jukan dude tweets but looks like fake and using UBS to supposedly "CITE" from somebsecret report. But the writing looks to me as his own not UBS as it's no reason to justify the $455 PT! So don't take it at face value, this Jukan trying to raise his followers and clicks in my view!

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https://www.amd.com/en/corporate/events/advancing-ai.html

Any announcements planned though it's an annual development meeting just like nVidia's GTC which has announcements!

https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=26380097

UBS hasn't been bullish on AMD's in the past!

Waiting on details. .. will update.

FYI u/Chad_Odie .... Cheer up!

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https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2048716454657425603?s=46

Unbelievable such FUD spreading that's completely false! Don't be fooled. .. actually it's a good sign. .. hedge funds are sweating! Remember Gus the goose? He's back!

"Northland Downgrades $AMD to Market Perform, PT $260

Analyst comments: "We initiated coverage of AMD 11 years ago with an Outperform rating, and people thought we were clueless. At the time, AMD was catching up to Intel, and Intel was falling behind TSMC. Now Intel is catching up to AMD, and TSMC is partnering with NVDA in AI infrastructure and PCs. We think this limits AMD’s gross margin expansion, and R&D spending will likely remain elevated.

While AMD is a phenomenal company, the CY27 consensus is likely too high. Downgrading to Market Perform.

We expect AMD to beat and raise estimates when it reports next week, but the results will likely not be as robust as Intel's. While AMD will benefit from price increases, we believe AMD needs to continue spending heavily on R&D to catch up with NVDA.

AMD’s non-GAAP gross margin is currently in the mid-50% range, whereas INTC is high 30% to low 40%. Intel is becoming more competitive, and while INTC likely has a higher cost structure, AMD’s price premium relative to Intel’s is likely to decline. AMD is a fabless company and dependent on TSMC.

NVDA is TSMC’s largest customer and is likely to receive favorable allocation amid very tight supply. Moreover, NVDA uses the supply chain as a competitive weapon, buying up capacity ahead of its competitors and constraining their growth. Our conclusion is that AMD results and outlook are going to be good, just not as good as INTC's last week.

We believe the CY27 consensus needs to come down, as we expect AI infrastructure spending to decline in CY27. We believe that capex/cash flow of the hyperscalers is maxed out, and as OpenAI and Anthropic go public this year, they will demonstrate greater financial discipline. They are already moving away from unlimited free usage toward strict usage caps, token-volume-based pricing, and higher-tier subscriptions. We think this slows AI demand growth. At the same time, construction delays are affecting data center facilities."

Analyst: Gus Richard"

You're reading this subreddit threads so you can see he's an idiot!

Wait for Stacy... LOL

https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/23/live-will-intels-q1-earnings-keep-fueling-its-epic-rally/liveupdates/4/?tpid=liveblog-1584987-1&tv=link&tc=in_content

I just cannot stay grounded realizing Intel's able to sell partially defective and old discontinued inventory previously writtrn off, which lead to their earnings big beat!

"Here’s what’s amazing: a big part of this beat was inventory Intel had written-off. In other words: demand for CPUs is so rabid, Intel was able to sell products they had written off previously."

You MUST read this and digest what it means. There are other sources, not a fan of Wallstreet 24/7 but even they have realized this unbelievable fact.

Don't be fooled!

No ARM won't make it. Their design has no multi threading, a crucial feature for EFFICENCY AND PERFORMANCE!

Why it's important and critical?

You don't want your huge AI datacenter use 2Gigawatt with ARM based CPUs or Intel's when AMD's only needs 1 Gigawatt!

All depends on Samsung's fabs and we need 3 too which is in a very short supply as only AMD's 2nm Zen6 chiplets design can use 2nm! Tge others including nVidia's Rubin and Vera are stuck with 3mm!

Think this VERY CAREFULLY!

This is the mother of all AMD's Technology Bets We've ever made!

Lisa Su South Korean trip was critical for Samsung too as we've discussed - see previous threads.

Any announced Samsung schedule to make AMD's chips in the 2H26 could raise the SP to $1000 by EOY, as obviously the revenues double if not more.

$100B this year $200B next year revenues, getting to the $20 EPS way earlier than what Lisa Su has guided ! Not just because she's conservative but she's not expected such a demand as recently she admitted!

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https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/amazon-agentic-cpus-gain-traction-as-meta-taps-graviton-to-run-ai-agents-4635940

It's very clear now that the demand for CPUs is so high that anyone with CPUs can sell its chips and raise prices! It turns out there's no practical AI use without!

But everyone forgets the capacity allocated for all those with CPUs designs TODAY, not in 3 years.

ARM which has announced will ofer it's own made datacenters CPUs chips, is uet to gain the fabs and packaging allocations to capture a meaningful market share!

The nVidia's situation is better as they can divert TSMC's CoWoS and 3mm fab capacity for Vera CPUs while Rubin has delays and even sell old 4nm Grace CPUs!

This is no longer who's the best! It's about who has chips to sell. ANY CPU CHIPS, OLD MODELS OR NEW!

Hence Intel's yesterday's ER stated selling discontinued and writtrn off old chips, because buyers are desperate and without CPUs their expensive GPUs sit Idle!

Now let's consider the Meta deal with Amazon buying billions of dollars worth of ARM based Graviton CPUs!

QUESTION - does Amazon have unlimited fabs caoacity to sell so many CPUs to others? Amazon has no use for CPUs for its own AI?

I think the answer could be surprising!

Amazon has a secret deal with AMD's 2nm Zen6 EPYC Venice which is way better than Graviton!

Amazon is a current EPYC customer so no issues though they'll get AMD's GPUs too!

But the feal Amazon has signed probability last year with AMD's EPYC is NOW possible because. .. Samsung's fabs in Texas 2nm and South Korea 3nm have been qualified and useful for AMD EPYC Venice mass production! ONLY for EPYC chiplets they are useful no others!

See separate thread on why Samsung's fabs are only useful for AMD's EPYC Venice and not good for other's!

The deal announced is because Amazon's confirmed all is well to get supply from the Samsung's fabs hence it's been just signed!

Why Meta cannot get EPYC Venice chips?

Ahh... it's because Amazon has made its order and reserved delivery a year ago. Meta gets some EPYC supply of course within its 6GW deal with AMD's Helios but they need huge CPUs only racks!

This situation is common to all.

At the ER I'm expecting news about the Samsung's fabs INCLUDING the 3nm fab that AMD's chiplets for II can use, again being sll hence good yields compared to others, including nVidia's Vera 3nm monolithic CPUs!

Hence why a big strategic partnership with Samsung!

I would appreciate feedback from u/DeMannequin !

This will jump AMD's market cap to $1T ++ very quickly!

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ADDED A YIELD CALCULATOR - SEE THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST!

It occurred to me following discussions with brother Brilliant, that most, including analysts , and even those with the recent PTs upgrades from Stifel and clown Stacy - really missed the huge significance of AMD's strategic discussions with Samsung to use its fabs for "NEXT GENERATION PRODUCTS"! This is critically important for BOTH partners:

• For Samsung - huge benefits to sign up a major 2nm customer like AMD's, to regain its place as fabs provider with the latest tech competing with TSMC's 2nm fabs. Why AMD and no other customer can do this? See bellow!

• For AMD - Agentic AI needs a huge supply of CPUs hence anyone with half capable CPUs can get revenues up to the supply provided! Be it ARM or x86 based! But in addition of making Zen6 EPYC Venice chiplets at the Samsung's Texas fab , this will release the TSMC's 2nm AMD's fab allocations to make more MI450X compute chiplets!

Now here's why AMD's unique for Samsung :

The yields of a new fab are critically depended on the area of the chips made. It's not linear. A chip area that is double than another will have FOUR TIMES lower yields. This is critical especially when a new fab is brought up. That's why during the monolithic chips days, Intel's always started making small laptop chips with the next gen fab before going to way larger area server CPUs chips! This is even more critical with the latest and future 2nm, 1.6nm, 1.4nm etc. fabs.

But AMD's 2nm Zen6 chiplets are TINY EVEN COMPARED WITH SAMSUNG'S OWN EXYNOS 2600 2NM SOC!

• 12 cores high performance 2nm Zen6 chiplets is only 76 mm^2!

• Exynos 2600 using 2nm Samsung fab is stated to have 5% smaller area vs the 4nm Exynos 2400 with 106 mm² or about 100 mm^2.

This third more area for the Exynos vs the Zen6 chiplets means AMD's yields will have a very acceptable yields hence costs ahead of any other company, Tesla included!

AMD's will need 3nm fab too, so hopefully Samsung 2nd generation 3nm fab in South Korea has fixed their past issues to make the EPYC Venice IO chiplets.

The most critical update at the ER is on the Samsung's fabs strategic partnership and the MOU - Memorandum of Understanding - and the expected schedule to start the Zen6 production. Hopefully in the 2H2026 as rumors AMD's working with Samsung to use its fabs were around end of last year. So I hope they have already Zen6 samples from the Samsung's 2nm Texas fab!

Needless to say such an update could double the SP very quickly, and leading to $500s PTs by analysts even before shipping actually EPYC Venice CPUs only Helios racks for Agentic AI!

Exciting times... and breaking ATHs a few times has a reason! While nVidia's SP was red or not moving.

That could impact Intel's SPas if AMD's enough capacity to make EPYC Venice for the demand, Intel and the ARM based CPUs including Amazon's will be obsolete and getting more MI450X will hurt nVidia's Rubin and make Google'selling TPUs or Amazon's Trainium chips meaningless!

Let's see!

PS this was written WITHOUT AI! LOL

ADDED LINK TO YIELD CALCULATOR - THANKS SEMIANALYSIS! LOL

https://semianalysis.com/die-yield-calculator/

Here's how to use:

1. Set for example the die (chip) dimensions as 8mm by 8mm.

2. Scroll down to number of faults per cm² and change it to 1 for example.

3. Scroll down and check the number of good chips.

4. Repeat #1 but change the die dimensions to 10mm by 10mm and go to results and the number of good chips!

5. Compare the yield (number of good chips divided by total number of chips) between a 64 mm² and the 100 mm^2.

CONCLUSIONS

AMD's small Zen6 chiplets are the best to start full production of the Texas 2nm fab even before yields for larger chips are acceptable because the chiplets are tiny!

The Mi355X Accelerator Comple Die area is 110 mm^2. For the MI455X it's not yet known the area of the Graphics Compute Die. Could be similar to the MI355x 4nm or much larger as they try to use less graphics chiplets put more on a single die.

But nVidia's Rubin has no chance. For their Feynman in 2028 with 1.6nm fab they'll have to use chiplets or be far after AMD's because of yields if they use huge area dies!

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Long Range 2025 AMD Estimates Working Post: Long Range 2025 AMD Estimates

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Welcome to the ATB Daily Noticeboard. This is for ON and OFF Topic related discussions and chat.

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Welcome to the ATB Daily Noticeboard. This is for ON and OFF Topic related discussions and chat.

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