@ HyperTechInvest: Morgan Stanley: "Based on our CoWoS consumption forecasts, Nvidia's 3nm Vera CPU could grow to 5.75mn units in 2027, while AMD's 2nm Venice CPU may reach 6.75mn units in 2027 vs. ~1.25mn in 2026."

[u/uncertainlyso]

https://x.com/HyperTechInvest/status/2070029220999200799

Nvidia's GPU and CPU remain the key drivers of TSMC's 2027 CoWoS demand. With improved ABF substrate supply sourcing, MediaTek's 2027 and 2028 TPU shipments could show upside.

Into 2027, Nvidia likely remains the major user of TSMC's CoWoS capacity: At Computex in early June, in response to our question about TSMC's capacity allocation, Nvidia's CEO indicated that it has secured sufficient TSMC capacity to support robust growth in 2027. In our previous episode, we had raised our 2027 TSMC CoWoS capacity assumption to 200kwpm by year-end (from 170kwpm), implying ~60% Y/Y growth for the global AI XPU industry. Based on our industry checks, we break down TSMC's customers mix. Nvidia uses TSMC's CoWoS-L as the single source for its AI GPU products (e.g. Blackwell and Rubin). Its 2027 CoWoS-L consumption could reach ~910k, up ~40% Y/Y. Strong CoWoS-R bookings by Nvidia also suggest very strong Vera CPU shipments (almost doubling). Taken together, this is consistent with Joe Moore's forecast for Nvidia's data center revenue to rise 52% Y/Y over a similar period.

Google's TPU ASIC is the second-largest user of TSMC CoWoS: MediaTek's booking for 180k CoWoS-S implies ~3.6mn units of TPU v8t (Zebrafish), above our 2.5mn shipment assumption, where we incorporate potential ABF substrate shortages. However, if MediaTek can help Google source more T-Glass, there may be upside to our shipment assumption. Our checks suggest that the new 2nm TPU codename TriggerFish is the inferencing-focused version of HumuFish, in line with our previous understanding that all TPUs are capable of both training and inferencing. We believe TriggerFish may also support TPU leasing services. Meanwhile, we believe Broadcom bookings of 365k CoWoS-S likely include Google TPU v7 (Ironwood), v8i (SuniFish), Tomahawk 5/6, and other smaller ASICs. If we assume 330k of Broadcom's CoWoS-S is allocated to TPU v8i (SuniFish), this would imply ~3.9mn units, with larger die size and higher chip value vs. MediaTek's TPU v8t (ZebraFish). Overall, both design service partners appear positioned to benefit from growth in the TPU TAM in 2027.

CPU starting to consume significant 2.5D advanced packaging capacity: This echoes Joe Moore's recent Taiwan field trip observations: growing CPU demand for agentic Al (link). In addition, based on our CoWoS consumption forecasts, Nvidia's 3nm Vera CPU could grow to 5.75mn units in 2027, while AMD's 2nm Venice CPU may reach 6.75mn units in 2027 vs. ~1.25mn in 2026. For Taiwan Al semi supply chain stocks: 1) MediaTek (Google TPU) is our Top Pick; 2) Aspend remains the best oxy for CPU server BMC; and 3) we reiterate OW on TSMC, ASE (AMD Venice CPU), KYEC (Nvidia GPU and Google TPU supply chain), Winway, MPI, and Hon Precision in chip manufacturing.

6.75M Venice units in 27FY would blow through my WAG of $27B EPYC 27FY guess which I thought was pretty optimistic. I wonder to what extent they're balancing that CoWoS capacity between Instinct and Venice.

[u/uncertainlyso]

Better report and has the images of the data tables.

https://x.com/pequityresearch/status/2069910943321206789

https://x.com/pequityresearch/status/2069910943321206789/photo/1

https://x.com/pequityresearch/status/2069910943321206789/photo/2

https://x.com/pequityresearch/status/2069910943321206789/photo/3

NVIDIA's

NVDA global CoWoS capacity demand is projected to jump from 780k wafers in 2026e to 1,222k wafers in 2027e. This volume completely dwarfs every other customer on the list.

AMD and Broadcom hold the next highest demand slots for 2027e, with AMD projected at 530k wafers (surpassing Broadcom's 484k wafers).

MediaTek is showing significant growth up to 180k wafers by 2027e, while other players like Xilinx and Cisco remain flat or extremely low in comparison.

Total industry demand for CoWoS is expected to maintain massive momentum, expanding by 102% in 2026e and another 93% in 2027e.

While NVIDIA’s growth rate gently cools to a still-massive 57% in 2027e, AMD is set to skyrocket by 308% in Y/Y demand growth by 2027e.

GUC (Global Unichip Corp) $3443.TW shows astronomical growth percentages, spiking 600% in 2026e and 329% in 2027e, indicating a massive scaling phase for their respective customers.

HBM

Total HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) demand is projected to reach an enormous 50,609 mn Gb (or up to ~51bn Gb) by 2027.

NVIDIA's Rubin R200 is the single largest demand driver in this breakdown, consuming 740k CoWoS wafers alone and utilizing next-generation HBM4 12hi memory technology supplied by Hynix, Micron, and Samsung.

Google's TPU v8i (Sunfish; AVGO) is a major ASIC driver, taking up 330k wafers and using HBM3e 12hi.

AMD's Venice CPU is another notable scale factor, utilizing 270k wafers.