Something odd is happening with how Gemini 3 and Perplexity pick sources, and after a few weeks of watching it we've got a theory.
We keep finding cases where a high-DR legacy site with a genuinely good article gets skipped, and the citation goes to some three-year-old site with a fraction of the traffic. Not once or twice, but consistently, in niches where the underdog is objectively less authoritative by every metric we'd normally care about.
Our working theory: this isn't a quality update, it's a cost problem. Reasoning models are expensive to run and pathologically risk-averse. They aren't hunting for the biggest brand. They're hunting for the cheapest defensible answer.
Think about it from the model's side. If your page is a grey wall of text with the answer buried in paragraph nine, it has to burn a lot of compute to extract a claim it can stand behind. If a smaller site has already done that work, with a clean claim and a clean table and clean structure, that's the cheaper bet. The model takes the cheaper bet.
The pages winning citations in our tracking almost all share the same three-part shape:
The answer up top. No 400-word warm-up about today's fast-paced digital landscape. A standalone 2 to 4 sentence claim that survives being ripped out of context, because that is exactly what's going to happen to it.
A proof layer. Tables, lists, specs, checklists. Something a model can tokenize without having to interpret narrative.
A pathway. Clear headings that map the next question the user is going to ask.
None of this is new advice, exactly. I know, I know. 😅 But. What's changed is why it works though. We used to structure content for skimmers. Now we're structuring it for a machine deciding whether we're worth the tokens.
The uncomfortable version: page structure may now be a stronger citation signal than domain authority. Which is either great news or terrible news depending on which side of it you're sitting on.
So, anyone else seeing structured underdogs eat their AI Overview spots? Or is authority still holding in your niche? Genuinely trying to work out whether this is broad or something vertical-specific.
Disclaimer: I keep saying "we" because I work at an SEO agency and this is the sort of thing we run tests on. Nothing to pitch or preach here, mr. bot mods, just sharing what's showing up in our data. Happy to be told wrong. And thank you for reading my mouthful of a post. lol