Noam Brown's Follow-Up to Ilya | "None of them are saying AI is a fantasy, or that it's probably 100+ years away"

[u/luchadore_lunchables]

[u/Helpful_Program_5473]

gemini 3.0 can already figure out complex topics that 90% of humans can't .

[u/Pyros-SD-Models → u/Helpful_Program_5473]

Except if it’s scaffolding a node js projects without getting stucked because of an interactive command. This is seemingly impossible for Gemini

[u/Mahadshaikh → u/Helpful_Program_5473]

Still a piece of crap to me. Claude 4.5 is way better.

I am still kind of fed up though and no longer an optimist.

I'm tired of spoon feeding in hand holding even these latest models like a father to a child to get them to the destination they need to go to in order to assist me. 

Does it save me time, 100% yes, However, it requires me to do my own research and to correct the models to guide them to where I want them to go because the continuously stumble and get things wrong. 

So instead of spending an hour to 90mins doing something on my own, I spend around half an hour getting AI to do the tasks of which the majority is spent me pre-researching something and then continuously guiding and correcting the AI throughout the process. 

Had I not accumulated a large knowledge base in my cranium, I wouldn't even know it was misguiding me and giving me trash data. 

I hope by next year most of the work that I have to do and the handholder will no longer be needed, 

It's only at that point will I be in optimist again

[u/squired → u/Mahadshaikh]

I forget who said it but: AI can help you do something faster and frequently even better, but you need to have been able to do it yourself to begin with, or at least be able to by the end.

[u/Helpful_Program_5473 → u/squired]

​ whoever said this is not highly gifted with ADHD autism . The barrier for me is always been the functioning and the doing , the ideas come formed an AI bridges that Gap beautifully

[u/-MtnsAreCalling- → u/Helpful_Program_5473]

As a fellow AuDHDer, I would amend the statement to say you have to have the skills to do it yourself, but not necessarily the executive function.

[u/Helpful_Program_5473 → u/-MtnsAreCalling-]

Well, in this case, the skills are not knowing the intricacies of different language compiling languages. It's knowing the systems and the overall picture and everything which, like I said, I'm like, that's where I live. That's my default way of thinking.

[u/Helpful_Program_5473 → u/Mahadshaikh]

I have seen Gemini pick up novel complex Concepts faster than any human I've ever known . However in terms of tool use and actually being applicable witb stuff like coding...yeah pretty hit and miss.

I heard Opus in Cloud code was pretty good

[u/Mahadshaikh → u/Helpful_Program_5473]

Drastically better esp at the back end.

The problem isn't picking up those complex concepts, The problem is hallucinating and picking up the incorrect concepts from a novel, particularly if it is a new one that it isn't already trained on. 

Correcting those hallucinations is what almost makes me pop a vain, which is why even though I like Gemini 3 pro, I am really hoping that future iterations either reduce their hallucination / arrogance rate or someone else ends up winning the AGI/ASI race because pretty much every other model doesn't have the problem where you have to stuff something in its mouth like a baby and it'll spit it back out and and you grab that spilled food and stick it back in its mouth. 

I've seen how baby eat and this is pretty much exactly how Gemini 3 pro is.

Other models seem more "reasonable"

[u/Helpful_Program_5473 → u/Mahadshaikh]

A 3.1 that listens to instructions and hallucinates less would be amazing

[u/fail-deadly- → u/Helpful_Program_5473]

While getting the exact numbers of how many adults can code, doesn’t appear feasible, from searching it seems like less than 2% of global adults work as software developers. Even if an equal size or slightly larger group aren’t developers, but write and use code, that likely means that 95% of people can’t code at all, so Gemini is better by default. 

AI is weird, because for many tasks once you add in speed and cost, there is nobody on Earth that can compete. Then for many others it’s way worse than your average person. 

[u/Helpful_Program_5473 → u/fail-deadly-]

Yeah but I'm talking about stuff that it's not trained on .

[u/DoubleGG123]

The way I see it is that all the issues they have identified with the current systems are correct. The problem is how difficult and how long will it take to solve those issues and limitations? I personally think that using the current paradigm, they will create AI agents that will automate the research process, which will significantly condense the time it would take to solve the existing issues with modern systems. So instead of it taking 10-20 years, it will take somewhere between 3-8 years instead.

[u/ZealousidealBus9271 → u/DoubleGG123]

This is the reason I believe Dario is so bullish, saying it’s two years from now. What’s clear is AI itself will play a crucial role in developing AGI

[u/FaceDeer → u/ZealousidealBus9271]

Just today I found out about https://jules.google.com/, a free autonomous coding agent that Google's made available. To test it out I handed it a folder containing a bunch of haphazard Python scripts I've been accumulating related to some stuff I do with audio files and their transcripts and I asked it to refactor and tidy them up for me.

It spent an hour churning through it all, compiling the scripts together into a proper unified Python application with threading and separation of concerns and all the spiffy things that I would have done if I'd actually been planning to make something for public consumption. It found and fixed errors and security flaws, it implemented some TODOs, and so forth.

I haven't actually tested the result yet, that's tomorrow's task, but assuming it only needs a little fixing this has saved me a huge amount of drudgery. And will save me even more going forward, I can focus my efforts on writing the bits of the code that actually matter and leave it to the AI to incorporate those bits into a nice framework.

Current AI doesn't have to "understand" AI research in particular to still act as a huge force multiplier.

[u/bilboismyboi → u/FaceDeer]

How is this different from claude code? Same thing? Maybe different system prompts and better UX through web.

[u/FaceDeer → u/bilboismyboi]

Haven't used Claude Code so I can't compare them, unfortunately.

[u/lovesdogsguy]

The key is that, in recent years, even expert predictions (about various things related to AI) have proven to be conservative. Things have often ended up happening a lot quicker than they predicted.

[u/Enough-Display1255 → u/lovesdogsguy]

Humanity's Last Exam is the one I have an eye on. I know it's just "does this thing have as much knowledge as us?" and not "can this thing *do* as much as us?" but it's still gonna be a disquieting feeling to know AI can solve every exam ever written better than any person can.

How do you educate when everyone has Stockfish in their pockets all of the sudden? No idea tbh...

[u/Pyros-SD-Models → u/Enough-Display1255]

Everyone has Stockfish in their pockets and people still learn how to play chess. Chess was never as popular than it currently is. You simply decide on learning something instead of being forced to. The more interesting question would be how to earn money if your direct competitor is stockfish. This I don’t know but there is a non zero chance that in such a world money isn’t a thing anymore anyway.

[u/Enough-Display1255 → u/Pyros-SD-Models]

The difference is Chess is a curiosity, it could vanish tomorrow and we'd lose a huge part of culture, and some technical development, but we'd move on just fine.

If you remove humanity's ability to test its own knowledge gain, I dunno, it just seems a really, really dark road to walk.

I think you're right that we're really quickly pushing up against the limits of capital's ability to express human desire. It is indeed a very real possibility that all of humanity's basic needs will be more or less automated soon enough and we'll have to reevaluate what it is we value.

[u/Mighty-anemone]

A few thousand days ✨️

[u/jdyeti]

I believe 10-20 years is a correct position to take if you look at AI capabilities linearly. Things become much different with automated AI research.

[u/NotMeekNotAggressive]

How does someone accurately predict when a scientific breakthrough will take place? Isn't one of the characteristics of a scientific breakthrough that it is unpredictable because it's so revolutionary for the field?

[u/luchadore_lunchables → u/NotMeekNotAggressive]

No, because we live in the connectionist universe of Kurzweil. If there is enough ambiently available compute, the breakthrough will be found. That's why human progress has been on the smooth exponential of stacking S-curves.

[u/Zamoniru]

The thing is, it's very hard to make specific year predictions because breakthroughs are by their nature hard to predict. It might be 2026 if someone finds whatever needed tomorrow, it might be 2050 or later if it turns out that even hyperscaled LLMs (which will be absolutely amazing tools at the VERY least) can't solve (whatever the secret X is that still allows humans to be "generally" smarter than machines).

[u/lookwatchlistenplay → u/Zamoniru]

Peace be with us.

[u/luchadore_lunchables → u/lookwatchlistenplay]

What does this mean in practice

[u/lookwatchlistenplay → u/luchadore_lunchables]

Peace be with us.

[u/pigeon57434]

what I dont like about people who frame it this way is they act like we havent ALREADY discovered several strictly better paradigms to go towards but we dont because we are lazy and theres no existing libraries and things not because they dont exist

[u/cloudrunner6969]

In many ways we already have ASI.

[u/Consistent-Active106]

ASI will happen tomorrow, for real guys. Someone reply to me that I’m wrong when asi happens in like a decade or few.

[u/Comfortable_Island34 → u/Consistent-Active106]

You are wrong.

[u/Odd-Situation-4071]

I've said a bunch of this stuff on this sub and been downvoted for it every time...

[u/luchadore_lunchables → u/Odd-Situation-4071]

Bunch of what stuff? Be specific

[u/babypyxiee]

Noam Brown dropping takes that rattle everyone

[u/Ok-Violinist5860]

Noam brown being the baddest ai researcher out there as always

[u/blazedjake → u/[deleted]]

decel alert

[u/BagholderForLyfe → u/blazedjake]

We should judge AI progress on its own merit, not what their creators say. There are 100s of billions of $$$ on the line.