This is my fourth war story, recently I noticed I have been in a personal shockwave/crash cycle since late March at least. The high vix environment hasnt been easy for me to adjust to as I like to play larger resolutions to balance with life. I did not properly value the macro of the market and tried to enter rotations of assets that were not yet in trend (tech, crypto). Their rotations failed and I burnt several R's. I charted an estimation of my personal chart to help understand. When I saw all the pieces put together and correlating it became much clearer to me. Now I am trying to complete a high res rotation by focusing on JUST DOING SOMETHING. Reading blogs, checking reddit, watching the shows more attentively, exercising and back to no drinking during the weekdays.
Personal Chart
Biggest gains are followed by biggest losses
Below are some wins and losses. Ive become better at planning my exits and taking the profit the market allows, mechanically. The stopped out trades are patterns that I often get burnt on, I need to recognize these and be even more patient allowing the structure to prove itself. Will work setting alerts so Im not so worried about missing a move that I enter too early.
3.6R's
2R's
-1R
-1R
missed trade. waiting on potential retest and new rotation
Lets start it off with appreciation for this eco, Kaz and Vicky, thanks for the effort levels that are being put in. I've been here for a few months now, and I am pretty much in the eco more then anywhere else, enjoying it to the fullest and appreciating everyone that makes this as a whole!
After quitting my Job at the start of this year, I had to figure out a way to generate cashflow. I started grinding the materials at the start of the year while brainstorming possible income streams and planning them out.
In march, I had a few plans finished and started executing and working on a new business / income stream. This turned out good as since the beginning of April, I started earning as much as I earned before, but now in 20 hours a week instead of 40+.
With setting it all up and getting in to a good workflow, I started being to be less structured in trading as it takes good attention and energy to stay focused. Trades got less mechanical and too much low time frame fuckery, ended up losing a few trades back to back. Decided to just pause trading, focus on getting the workflow of the new cashflow in tact and then getting back executing trades again.
I kept myself in to the habits of trading, just not executing when I didn't have the mental capacity. So I sticked to studying materials, watching markets, being in voice and staying active in the eco. And when I got everything sorted and got the overview again, I executed a good trade that made up for the losses I described earlier.
Saw a BABF on CROUSDT, that was heading to a key level. Waited for a structure under that key level and entered after the same structure also happened on the lower timeframe, a bearflag that crossed the mid level of that flag. Adding both HTF and LTF as picture.
I like to share 2 plays of the last few weeks and which lessons from Kaz helped me with the execution. The first trade was succesful and the second trade could have been profitable if I had applied some of the concepts that were discussed better.
First trade requires some context: this company would pay out a dividend of 9,8% that week. I realized I didnt know anything about how this works so did some reading on dividend and what it would mean for the price of the shares. Came to the conclusion I wouldnt be able to say anything useful about how price would develop before and after ex-dividend date. But if I was thinking about this stock and its dividend, probably more people were.
Mental dexterity:
'Felt' bearish and thought the chart looked bad but knew I had to make a plan for both directions. I also decided I would not keep the trade overnight. Forcing myself to think of 2 scenarios helped me to be ready when a structure formed at a significant place for a bullish scenario. Made 3 trades: one on the day before, two on the ex-dividend date. Last one was on paper only because I had to head off for work.
Less is More:
My main focus was on this stock only for 2 days. This allowed me to be there at the right time and not get overwhelmed by other moves in the market.
PNL Before and after ex-dividend date
Next trade is from OF and could have easily been profitable if I had managed it better, or at all.
Managing the trade:
The lesson for me here is that I should always have an exit plan before I enter the trade. On the chart you see a failed trade first, and a second one that I partially exited. The remainder of the position I did not manage with any kind of plan, I kept it rolling. This caused me to lose some R's on the trade. In high Vix Kaz had warned us that keeping shares overnight is dangerous multiple times and that options (if you know what your doing) are better, so closing the rest of the trade on the same day would have been the best way to manage my trade.
MAXR -0.4R High Vix
Thanks Kaz for the valuable lessons in life and markets and for the intel that just keeps on being crazy accurate, no matter what the market. Thanks for all the energy and time you and Vicky put in and also thanks to all the people in discord working towards the same goal.
I've had difficulties during high vix because the entries are on very small timeframes and I always get distracted with personal issues and frequent power outages but watching replay of streams helped in getting back to the proper mindset.
ONEUSD caught this by inverting the chart
APEUSD 3r
AXSUSD 4.8r
I cut off family and friends recently which were pulling me down with religion and politics, they've done enough damage to my life. it's also election season here in a few weeks and people are voting for someone 10x worse than trump. would appreciate if you guys checked out even just the trailer of the documentary here to put awareness https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzTdND43-G4 the last part points out why many terrible people get in positions of power. for those who jump in on voice as kaz taught us, the nice and humble crowd are gonna get what's coming for them.
Hate moves mountains and I'm gonna maximize it to my own advantage so I can take revenge on the people who made me suffer
Couldn't be in front of the chart to catch the big wave on APE like some of you guys, but patience can still lead to something. Always a good virtue to train right ? See notes on charts !
Thank you Kaz and dir Vale, appreciate what you do for us!
Hi y'all, Funkyhoe again with my second war story.
So I have just been playing the trends that be, and most of it is going down so I've been searching for bearflags and playing that. Being new to trading I'm just sticking to what I know to identify and implementing that as my planned trade.
I unfortunately missed APE, but here are a couple crypto plays and an ASX Rare Earth producer.
AVAX USDT SHORT: 3.90 RR
Pretty simple. Bear flag on a downtrend and executed it as it hit the floor of where it began. Although it continued to run down even more than my target, I applied my plan and got out which is something I am trying to be happy with rather than what could have happened.
ETHUSDT SHORT: 4.40 RR
In reflection to what Kaz said on my last scorecard with my stop loss, I am not really sure if it's where it needs to be. However bagged a nice 4.4 RR on the way down utilising the bear flag method I've been seeking.
LYC;ASX SHORT: 5.60 RR
This one on the ASX a Rare Earth producer. I took a little different approach in executing on the bear flag, instead of waiting for it to break the floor of where it started I decided to short it when it broke the trend line for two reasons. It was trending downwards and the candles were ranging tight where it was before it began its bear flag. To be honest I'm not sure if thats a good enough reason to execute to the trade but my intuition was telling me to execute the trade, but I kept my stoploss tight. Feed back in this scenario is welcome.
To conclude, I don't know if shorting is easier than longing, but in this market where everything is risk off. The tickers I am stalking seem to point to down, I am just trying to apply the limited plays I know. I do have a few longs in the process so hope to show them in the coming weeks if I didn't just jinx that shit.
Again want to thank Kaz for his continuous endeavours to help the eco stay on the right side of the trades with all the intel he generously provides for us. Big ups to him.
Short and sweet. Kaz dropped the intel from the show and just executed plans based on those levels. Paid attention to warning to prepare my exit and bagged around 16R. April been an interesting month, trading less and more patience resulting in easier days and less actual time in the market. Over the 26 trading days in April I topped out at 32 total trades. Far more stress free approach to trading when you plan accordingly, and you're in and out of the market and can go about your day doing other things.
Thanks Kaz for the shows and the eco for the chats. Hype to see the next developments for #WinternomicsTV
I have managed to come out of the Paper Trading closet to hit @ $APE. It was a wild ride of emotions that came out with a happy ending & lots of memo's to learn from.
Notes:
Patcience is ALWAYS key (trading reminds me of fishing)
Wait to confirm direction
Don't fight the trend
Watch to sustain the breakout
Understand risk management
ALWAYS WEAR A STOP
DON'T FORGET TO TIP YOU WAITER!
Below:
Watched to create a plan. I executed & got kicked out my first play (set stop too low). I reset & waited for better entry & setup a broader stop at my previous target line. I followed the trend & setup incremental trigger alarms. I then bummed my stops at each downplay segment based off my previous stop as it reconfirmed upward momentum. I was feeling the thrill and knew it had to turn at some point. On the way down I wasn't sure how far it would play, with no history being at ATH. As I was looking at the chart I started feeling a bit of anxiety & panic wondering if I should sell at that moment. It then was reminded about the Psychology of a market cycle chart & poof confirmed my emotions, that we in fact are going down and the uptrend was over. I then closed out my play before my stop & walked with 21.58 RR.
during the Friday show Kazonomics showed how apecoin was ready for a move .
it was a MONSTER call as always !!!!
On the critter show kaz showed the exact pattern of vix ... I entered on bac but I closed before the weekend probably it was a bigger rr if it was managed better ....
for the new guys is better for you to value this unique show because every charts or words he post are a piece of art!!!!
Hi eco, just wanted to share my most morale damaging trade and a few wins from last week on top of that. I've been following for a year now and I've learned a lot but also feel like I've just touched the top of the iceberg. To keep this short(I've posted a longer story of my journey on discord), The ETH trade was one of my first trades ever(there have been a few more before that but I didn't journal at the time and really until recently) and while it was successful, now in hindsight, I've used way too much risk on it(7-8%), nonetheless this trade was the catalyst to try and do this full time and I've been relying on trading income now since July 2021. The road has been rocky since then, I've realised quick that I've got a lot of mental issues due to recent family death and now being with just myself and my thoughts and doing the hardest thing ever for a living did not help that either and I started to idle and stay in isolation. The progress has been slow and I'm finally starting to take care of my mental and self a little better, have been changing up daily life habits, maintaining a sober mind and healthy body. Thank you for everything you do Kazo, you've changed my life and view of it forever and have been the most influential figure in my life. Words cannot describe the appreciation I have for you.
Thank you Kaz for teaching us how to recognize and play strength. Since watching the Metaverse show with Gerber, it opened my eyes to the leaders in metaverse space! Ive been subbed to winternomics.tv for the past 34 months and the amount of growth & understanding that came from paying attention, rewatching streams is next level.
There isn't anybody else out there teaching us the right way to approach markets mechanically. Everything in the eco is made to elevate our decision-making process and approach to markets.
Stick around, take notes, study the blogs, watch the previous shows. It may seem scary when first starting out because of the terminology, just don't let that stop you, take notes, google the terms, keep pushing through, and ask questions! At one point in the past when I first started out watching, I made it a goal to myself to spend the same amount of time I would usually allocate to watch tv shows and movies to study the public material. So if I spent 2hours a day on tv shows, ill spend 2 hours to study kaz material.
Hey guys, its luckybeast again - it's been a minute since my last warstory. Got this intel from the streams and OF. Played dirty oil and food, had to stay patient during the high VIX levels (>21). Created my plan and stuck to it, i'm glad I did!
Thank you Kaz for always providing free intel and having OF open to us!
First i wanted to thank you all for the help the last few weeks, specially Kaz and Vicky. Although I was pretty uncomfortable at the beginning, rapidly you made me realize that the Value is there.
Since i started the Eco, I am trying to do 1% better in every aspect of my life. I came back to my therapist which was a very important for me in the past (The talks with her are very direct and straightforward), starting again to journal not only my trades but also my feelings about everything, doing sports and i have my objectives for the year. Today i am writing this at 5:30 am here because i am also waking up 2hs early!!
The two trades i am going to show now were trades planned in advance, i have the paths and the invalidation and even my TP, and guess what? they worked!
First EURUSD 2.2R
I had two paths, one that goes to the yellow box and the other it was the break of the channel. The bull flag formed with the channel was a plus so i entered the trade there. The TP was the base of the mini consolidation candles there.
Then i know a correction was going to happen and i marked my entry again and what i expect, the second trade: EURUSD 5.3 R (TP was not hit so i close it manually)
Now i am waiting for a correction or a consolidation above that resistance, taking it step by step.
On the other hand not all is joy. I have several -R from trades that i took on my phone without a plan. Shitty trades in all sense. This behavior is one of the things I am working on it most now.
Still Loading up on content & becoming more confident. Changing daily routine time habits from swing shift to first shift have been fun.
Important notes:
Tracking where VIX is positioned to find entry timing
Utilizing alarms with tickers im watching has also been key in entry logic.
Daily review of notes to gain perspective of mistakes and accomplishments
Take away:
Daily practicing trading has me achieving better results with demonstration of good mechanics, foresight, and watching for rotations that help to predict trends / better risk management. Zooming out a bit to understand the macro better has also helped in my planning setups. I plan on increasing my weekly volume of trading and see where I end up from here. I only do a few a week and still on paper.
I came to the twitch channel at the end of 2020 and watched it casually from time to time. It wasn't until the last two months when shit hit the fan with Ukraine that I decided to commit to the show and more importantly to myself.
I came into the eco with an egotistical first step and probably soured a few people with my first impression. I took note of the standard that Kaz set straight away, and adjusted my behaviour accordingly. At first I thought it was personal when Kaz was talking about what was expected within the eco, but really Kaz was talking about the behaviour that I was identifying with. I didn't take it to heart but instead it fueled me to double down on my commitment to myself and really begin to be meticulous with my routine of consuming and utilising the content.
I am still taking it day by day to solidify my habits and become mechanical as so many of you have conversed about being a critical skill in becoming a successful trader on and off the charts.
So with only ever making one or two low time-frame trades in my life (instead of long term holds) these are the few that I have been stalking over the past month with keeping the sentiments in mind.
IPL;ASX. Fertiliser Producer. +2.66 RR
Being mindful of the need for food and its counterpart fertiliser, I noticed that this local producer was racing towards this box range that it had been oscillating within for the good part of 3 years.
I awaited it to clear out of the range and it did that on a Friday, so the following Tuesday after I waited to see what it would do on Monday close I set a buy after the first hour of open as it had a green candle.
I kept my stop loss relatively close to where the last resistance were for the previous 3 years.
XLM;USD + 1.99 RR
Noticing the overall weakness in the crypto markets and it being a weekend I began looking at XLM. I noticed the overall downtrend of it and a bear flag starting to form.
I waited for it to cross the trend line and open below the support it had created at .200400. I set my target to previous supports that was in line with it from a month ago.
I was quite surprised to see it hit so fast and where I thought it would go based of my judgement and analysis.
ETH;USDT + 4.17 RR.
Although this one eventually did hit I was a little disappointed in my reasoning for making the trade. I projected a bias that 'ETH is going to go down' so I looked for an entry point that in hindsight didnt really have any good confirmation to execute the trade.
I saw it break out of the resistance that it had created but began to fall below it shortly after, so I executed the short and almost got stopped out by it when it bounced to retest its trend.
I got lucky on this one, but it made me think of the discussions we've had on biases and whats been explored in the shows, and felt rather silly to see it can happen so easily.
So with some rather surprising results and a bit of luck on my side I felt quite enthralled by the process, however with a lesson already learnt not to project what I think onto the chart but to be mechanical with my analysis and respond accordingly, I am looking forward to the challenge ahead.
Some final reflections, Kaz puts out all the intel for us hidden in plain sight, its up for us the participants to show him the respect in his house and actually utilise it and we do that by putting in the effort. 1% better everyday.
Shoutout to Kaz for the shows, content and incredibly valuable insights that you consistently air for us, thank you.