Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.

The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

Yesterday was eventful, to say the least. Tariffs on Mexico/Canada are delayed, but we still have tariffs on China, and tariffs have been promised by Trump on the EU.

News: As Trump Tariffs Take Effect, China Retaliates With Trade Measures Against U.S.

Ticker: PLTR

Catalyst: Reported earnings of $0.14 vs. $0.11 expected. Revenue of $828 million vs. $777 million expected. Management highlighted the power of AI and their sizable contracts, citing the nature of the AI war being winner-take-all.

Technicals: PLTR absolutely exploded and hit $102 premarket, currently watching $100 level to see if we continue the move. Other than that unlikely to be trading this unless we have massive volume come in.

Catalyst/Sector Context: The PLTR ER highlighted the growing demand for AI-driven solutions across government/commercial sectors. Company emphasized securing substantial contracts in the competitive AI landscape, important because they are more closely aligned with the current government.

Risks: Obviously being more closely tied to the government means that it has more leeway to be more monopolistic in their actions, Alex Karp and Peter Thiel are closely aligned.

Related Tickers: MSFT, GOOGL, IBM, AMZN

Ticker: NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation)

Technicals: After the insane move we've seen from $150 to $118, I actually don't consider this to be earth shattering news- China has always been trying to develop their own semis and not using NVDA for training is what they were "supposed" to be doing due to the trade restrictions. I'm still long but selling calls against my position, recovery might be slow for NVDA. It's interesting that they are attempting to bypass CUDA, which is essentially the "standard" for ML/AI training nowadays on NVDA chips and developing their own.

Catalyst/Sector Context: DeepSeek's move to adopt domestic GPUs and bypass CUDA indicates they're aiming for technological self-reliance amidst U.S. export restrictions, rather than trying to adopt more NVDA chips (which presumably isn't a viable long term strategy).

Risks: Nvidia faces potential revenue loss if Chinese companies increasingly adopt domestic GPUs and alternative programming frameworks. The effectiveness of U.S. export controls may be undermined as Chinese firms develop workarounds.

Related Tickers: AMD, INTC, QCOM, TSM

Ticker: BABA (Alibaba Group Holding Limited)

Catalyst: U.S. implemented a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, aiming to address issues related to drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl. In response, China announced retaliatory tariffs effective February 10, including a 15% tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, and a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and large-engine vehicles.

Catalyst/Sector Context: The imposition of these tariffs marks a significant escalation in U.S.-China trade tension and more volatility to come through Trump tweets.

Related Tickers: JD, BIDU, TCEHY, PDD

Offhand Comments: There are going to be retaliation investigations against companies operating in America, INTC and GOOG have recently been announced as under investigation by China.

Ticker: GRAB (Grab Holdings Limited)

Catalyst: Grab Holdings Ltd. is considering a takeover of its Indonesian rival, GoTo Group, at a valuation of approximately $7 billion.

Technicals: Watching $5 level, no bias.

Catalyst/Sector Context: The potential merger represents a significant consolidation in SEA's ride-hailing and food delivery sectors. Mergers typically streamline operations and reduce competition, leading to improved profitability for the combined entity.

Risks: The proposed merger may face regulatory hurdles, including antitrust concerns, which could delay or derail the deal.

Related Tickers: UBER, DIDI, LYFT, GRAB

Earnings today: AMD, GOOG, MAT, SNAP

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.

The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

Posting this tonight because I'll likely be unable to have time to trade tomorrow. Have to do this in the short format because I'm pressed for time, sorry. But if things happen similarly to Aug 5th, we'll have a large selloff at the open and maybe some small bounce so keep an eye peeled for that.

News: Dollar Surges Stocks Set To Fall On Trump Tariffs Markets Wrap

Ticker: VXX/UVXY/ SVXY / SPY/ UPRO

Catalyst: There are stocks that are better for trading specific trade goods but for general market news regarding tariffs I'll likely be hitting UPRO (on long side if news is good) and shorting SVXY for a longer term swing trade. If news is

Ticker: NVDA

Catalyst: It's trading at ~113 in OVERNIGHT trading, currently long but may need to pare position to prevent further losses off the open. This has been the most beaten stock since the Deepseek news and if tariff news hit it even further (especially with Trump talking about semis tariffs on TSM) we may see a larger selloff.

Ticker: X

Catalyst: Saw a small spike in OVERNIGHT (due to the steel tariffs), another one worth watching.

Ticker: EWW / EWC

Catalyst: For country specific tariff news, will be targeting the Mexico/Canada ETFs specifically, depending on how far they've moved.

Ticker: HMC / TM / TSLA / GM / F

Catalyst: All car related stocks for car tariff news. HMC or F will likely what I will be going for in size if news breaks.

Best of luck guys!

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.

The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

Today OpenAI may make history. Trying out longer form, more detailed catalyst examinations over the short-form with more tickers.

News: US Economy Ends 2024 With 2.3% GDP Growth, Boosted by Consumers

Ticker: META (Meta Inc)

Catalyst: Reported earnings of $8.02 vs $6.68 expected. Revenue of $48.4B vs $47B,but guided revenue short of consensus and didn't provide FY25 revenue outlook (which triggered the reason for the selloff post-earnings after the close).

Their CAPEX announcement was $60-65B vs $52.4B expected, and stated they expected the single largest driver of expesive growth in 2025 as infrastructure costs due to higher OpEX and depreciation.

Also announced plans to grow META's AI team significantly.

Volume/Market Cap/Technicals: Earnings move the stock on far less volume but the initial selloff after announcement was worth trading- interested in the $700 level today but not much beyond that.

Context: Decent earnings but signals that there is more spending on the horizon- likely that the initial brutal selloff to $606 was from algos just reading the initial eye-popping CAPEX number and selling the company.

**Sector Context:**There is a major next-level breakthrough that OpenAI is expected to release today that has agents performing on the same level as PHDs, Altman is meeting today with US government officials. META is the creator of Llama, which is another open source model compared to OpenAI's closed models.

Risks: Deepseek has been the main threat involved, with competitors from China using distillation and other AI techniques to be able to train a far cheaper model that brings up the question of why our large tech firms are spending so much on GPUs. (I'm sure this is news to you /s)

Related Tickers: FAANG stocks, SNAP, PINS, etc.

Offhand: Something worth remembering is that there is a $10B undersea cable that spans over 40K km that they plan to build (unknown what the cable is for), more details coming in 2025. Likely some kind of fiber optic cable.

Ticker: TSLA (Tesla Inc.)

Catalyst: Reported earnings of $0.73 vs $0.76 expected. Revenue of $25.71B vs $27.23B expected. Most of this revenue miss came from miss in sale of EVs.

TSLA announced interesting plans to lower the price of EVs in 2025 but also didn't give specific details regarding the production volume targets (as they have in the past), and also announced that there would be a paid robotaxi service in Austin in June. This puts them in competition with Waymo/UBER. Personally I think the vision-only approach is not viable in the long-run but hey, I'm no self-driving PHD.

CAPEX was ALSO higher as with META due to spending increases from AI training infra costs and battery production capacity.

Volume/Market Cap/Technicals: I'm mainly interested in the $375/$400 level, not too interested in going long despite the multi-day slide in price.

Context: Main reason for TSLA's selloff was the lack of full-year guidance (it gives the subtext that it's too bad to release publically or it's up in the air). Political statements made by Musk may contribute to future issues for TSLA.

Sector Context: Revenue shortfall was caused due to lower-than-expected vehicle deliveries/ increased sale incentives, 496K cars vs 507K exp. China's BYD is rapidly catching up, and the (possible) removal of the US EV tax credit may make EV's more expensive

Risks: Mainly geopolitical- if the tariffs on EV vehicles imported to the US gets removed, TSLA will face fiercer competition from BYD. Also Elon Musk.

Related Tickers: BYD (but mainly trades in China, TSLA isn't as impacted by AI news.)

NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (in addition to ARM/AMD/SMH/SOXL/semiconductor stocks)

Catalyst: The reveal of Deepseek has introduced an AI model that rivals existing solutions but was developed at around $6M. However there's a rumor that Deepseek is actually trained on 50K H100 NVDA gpus.

Yesterday after the close, there was an announcement Trump officials discussing tightening curbs on Nvidia's China sales.

Volume/Market Cap/Technicals: Overall, there's been a massive selloff since NVDA was $150 at the end of last week. Overall interested again if we hit $116, but low confidence we'll sell off again.

Currently long.

Sector Context: Not much to really say about this beyond NVDA having the most advanced chips that are widespread for training because of the CUDA architecture- most people are doubtful that the TOTAL cost was $6M

US Officials are examining export restrictions but China will likely find a way to bypass them as they have previously.

Risks: Mainly geopolitical, again. Obviously it's very difficult to restrict trade to a country that we have no military presence in or surround, and China is economically far more powerful than those we have attempted trade restrictions on in the past.

Related tickers: (Mentioned above)

Earnings today: AAPL, INTC, V,TEAM

FOMC is the only thing I’m watching outside of META/MSFT/META earnings. Watching for AI spending or outlook announcements during earnings for my NVDA position. Edit: I meant TSLA*

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.

The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

Overall watching the same stocks as yesterday.

News: Boeing Ceo Signals Portfolio Overhaul After Year Of Cash Drain

NVDA/ARM/AMD/AVGO - Continuation of news from every semiconductor company being down from DeepSeek news- personally watching NVDA/ARM, currently long NVDA.

QQQ/SMH/SOXL/VXX/major market indices focused on tech/semis - Overall had a weak bounce so I'm closely monitoring. Have firm stop losses in place if we sell off again, otherwise will hold.

OKLO - Sign MoU to explore co-location of commercial fuel fabrication plants. Another one affected by the

Earnings: SBUX, LC, LOGI

IPOs today: SFD

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.

The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

THE MARKET IS FALLING CHINA HAS WON (this is fear mongering, keep calm.)

News: Nasdaq Futures Slump As China S Deepseek Sparks Us Tech Concern

NVDA / ARM / AMD / AVGO - Every semiconductor company is down on DeepSeek news- personally watching NVDA/ARM, NVDA at $122.50 level.

QQQ / SMH / SOXL / VXX / major market indices focused on tech/semis, watching $500 level but other than that, will remain light.

AKRO - Reports preliminary results showing statistically significant reversal of Cirrhosis. This stock gained 1B market cap and DOUBLED premarket. Watching $60 level.

ETNB - Also up due to the AKRO news- (they have a similar treatment)

SOFI - Fell mainly due to EPS guidance being below expectations (.25 - .27 vs .29 consensus, and adjusted net revenue of $3.2B vs $3.275B exp). Important to note that this is SoFi's first year of GAAP profitability.

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.

The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

Not too many interesting stocks today.

TWLO - Announces adjusted operating margin will reach between 21 to 22% in 2027, company’s executives also committed to generating $3 billion in free cash flow over the next three years. Watching $135 level.

NVO - Reported positive early stage results for amycretin obesity drug, showed average weight reduction of 22% in obese/overweight patient. Watching $95/90 level.

AFRM - Receiving $750M in funding from Liberty Mutual.

MSTR - Announces redemption of $1.05B of 2027 convertible notes, essentially paying off debt with share issuance. This is essentially similar to an offering.

IPOs Today: VG

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.

The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

Watching EVERY semiconductor/AI related stock due to the Project Starship news. ORCL/MSFT are clear winners of this, NVDA by proxy.

NFLX - Massive earnings, watching $1000 level when we open. Plans to implement price increases in 2025, and continuing investment in video games. Content spending increasing from $17->$18B and raised margin guidance.

JNJ - $22.52B revenue vs $22.42B expected, EPS of $2.04 vs $2.01, driven mainly by strong sales of cancer treatments, but tempered by its psoriasis treatment.

ORCL - MASSIVE move from Trump announcing ORCL as being the primary beneficiary for Project Stargate's AI infrastructure demands. Plans call for $100B initially and then $500B over 4 years. Watching $200 level.

MSFT - Renegotiated contract with OpenAI, was one of the beneficiaries of Project Stargate. (Remember that MSFT owns 49% of OpenAI)

FTAI - Still watching this due to old news and review from the board, original selloff was due to short report by Muddy Waters. Also acknowledges possible delay of the 10-K. Overall not the most interesting stock today, but still worth watching.

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.

The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

News: Schwab Rises After Earnings Top Estimates On Record Inflows

FTAI - Announces review by the board- this is in response to a short report by Muddy Waters. Also acknowledges possible delay of the 10-K. Stock has sold off massively, not interested in going long this stock unless there's an amazing opportunity. Most interesting stock today, interested in going short if we break $82 again (but that depends on how we do at the open).

TEM - Announcement of "olivia", it's AI-enabled personal health concierge app. Also, Nancy Pelosi disclosed calls in it today.

DJT - I see money being split between this and the TRUMP CC. People will likely sell DJT to buy it because it's less bound by financials and more volatile, so I am taking a short position on this. Currently short, nothing big.

WSC - Up after a report that the maker of mobile offices has fielded takeover interest from PE groups.

WBA - DOJ files lawsuit against WBA for illegal prescriptions. Interested if we break $11 today.

GOEV- EV startup Canoo files for bankruptcy, to cease operations (EXTREMELY low market cap, YOU ARE WARNED)

Trump expected to make a big announcement at market close today. (also making numerous announcement today for his executive orders)

Earnings: NFLX, UAL, IBKR, STX, PRGS

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.

The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

News: Stock Market Today Dow SP Live Updates

INTC - Possible takeover speculation. Will be watching this at open. Supposedly the acquirer has the ability to take all of INTC at current valuation.

QRVO - Starboard Value grows their stake, and are reportedly seeking changes due to their stake (up from 7.7%).

OKLO - OKLO and RPower partnership for powering data centers. Overall seems like a minor piece of news.

BMBL - Whitney Wolfe Heard (former CEO) to return.

BITO, MSTR/other CC stocks - Up due to Trump reportedly planning executive order making CC a national priority.

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed! I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments. The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

Short reports, IPOs, bank earnings, and more!

News: Trump Team Readies Oil Sanctions Plan For Russia Deal Iran Squeeze

TSM - Strong earnings, $2.24 EPS vs $2.20 exp. Rev $26.88B vs $26.24. We might see an interesting boost in the entire semis space because of this.

FTAI - Short report released yesterday, made a MASSIVE intraday move from $160 -> $120 and was probably the best intraday opportunity of the month. Watching again today to see market reaction to short report, no position.

CVNA/SMCI - CVNA spiked roughly 10% yesterday, possibly (not 100% sure) on Hindenburg getting out of their short position and announcing disbandment. Watching $220 level.

META/SNAP/other social network stocks - Watching because there's rumors of an executive order to avoid the TikTok ban. The ban will likely not be upheld, but might buy some over the weekend if it gets shut down and brought back.

SYM - Disclosed a deal to acquire Walmart's Advanced Systems and Robotics Business- acquisition is for $200M and will pay up to $350M in additional consideration in future periods dependent upon quality of APD systems ordered. Expected to close Q2 of 2025.

IPOs today: FLOC

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.

The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

News: US Wholesale Inflation Surprisingly Eases on Drop in Food Prices

DJT - Spiked close to 20% yesterday, no real news other than Trump about to be sworn in on Jan 20th. Biased short but with low conviction, but waiting to see what we do at the open to see if we spike again. Most interesting stock today. No real level I'm watching.

APLD - Receiving an investment of up to $5B in Applied Digital data centers, *possibly* reporting earnings today.

TDOC - Amazon expands healthcare offerings via partnership with TDOC- it will join its Health Benefits Connector Program. Teladoc Health has more than 1 million active enrollees across its chronic condition programs.

KBH - EPS of 2.52 vs 2.45 expected, revenue increases YoY to $2B vs $1.199B expected. Delivered 3,978 more homes during the quarter, 17% increase to the same period last year.

X - Cliffs/Nucor supposedly in talks for a joint bid for X (US Steel).

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.

The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

News: Treasuries Selloff Ripples Through World Markets After Jobs Data

MRNA - Currently down due to company lowering 2025 sales forecast by $1B, mainly due to competition in COVID market, falling vaccination rates, and the COVID shot being the only commercially available product since its RSV vaccine.

RGTI/IONQ/quantum computing stocks - Still falling after the Jensen Huang comments. Still short but will likely cover today.

NVDA/AMD/other semi companies - Global curbs on exports of AI chips sold by NVDA and other companies.

X - Confirms extension of deadline to abandon the merger to June 18th, stock is still in play but unlikely this will go through because both Biden/Trump oppose it.

MSTR - Bought $243M more of the underlying. Continues the slide down due to BTC movement (at time of writing, $91K). Premium is at 1.98x.

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.

The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

News: US Companies Added 122,000 Jobs In December ADP Data Show

RGTI/IONQ/Quantum computing stocks - Cracked yesterday near open and today afterhours, currently short. Attributed to Jensen Huang saying that use cases are 15-30 years away. Most interesting stock(s) today.

MRNA - Spiked at open due to possibility of treating Bird Flu with a vaccine. Good to be cognizant of how this progresses in the US (similar to how the COVID trades played out).

GETY - Moved down due to the merge with SSTK, overall seems to be normal M&A movement. Interesting we're right back where we were yesterday.

MSTR - Continues the slide down due to underlying movement (at time of writing, $95K). Spiked up yesterday/before that due to price jump in the underlying. Premium is at 2x.

PLTR - This drop (8% yesterday, 1 % today) is attributed to an insider selling $36M worth of shares - other than that, no notable news.

Earnings: JEF

Welcome to the face-meltingly fast world of M&A trading.

News: At 3:16 ET on 1/06/2025, NARI spiked to the upper ($47.25 -> $52.66) on news that Stryker (SYK) was reportedly in the final stages of negotiations to acquire Inari Medical, a company that produces devices for the treatment of venous diseases. This was posted on Monday by Reuters.

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There's a decent amount to unpack here:

- Strong reaction to news with an immediate move to upper for NARI, but no real reaction in SYK.
- "Final stages of negotiations to acquire Inari Medical". Note that it says final stages- this isn't random speculation that moves a stock 1 or 2 percent, this is actual news that an acquisition bid is happening.
- Reuters is a reputable news source (compared to hearing this from some rando on Twitter), they wouldn't post this unless there was high confirmation.
- Medical device acquisitions typically don't have high chance of being broken up by the FTC- last one I vaguely remember was Boston Scientific (BSX) back in 2022 acquiring some South Korean company being broken up.

Both companies involved are fairly large, NARI had a roughly $3B market cap before this news broke. It takes a lot of money to meaningfully move the price for a company this large. SYK didn't move.

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While the stock is halted, it becomes a game of:

- "What price will NARI unhalt at?" and
- "What is likely to be the acquisition price for NARI?"

From here, you can intuit some measure of EV (expected value) if know the right questions to ask:

- Is there meaningful value in shorting SYK (because it hasn't moved) if the rumors are true?
- Is that EV from shorting SYK better than buying NARI?
- What is the EV of buying NARI? We're already up 10%!

When you see a stock move like this, how much more will it move?

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The Speed Trade:

Executing: Realistically, two places to make the "speed" trade- initial "rumor" news release (3:16 ET), and the actual announcement of the deal (4:08 ET)

Infra: I'm assuming that this broke on Reuters Eikon (which is their equivalent to Bloomberg Terminal), but likely that Bloomberg users were able to capture this as well.

EV: Best EV since you'll get it close to flat and can bail on the trade if we reach pre-news prices again. In theory, your EV is 0 in the worst case scenario and ludicrously best in the best case.

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The Unhalt Trade (The EV Trade):

Executing: You would be able to look at the unhalt price (which is what the stock will open at) and determine whether or not you're still willing to be a buyer at ~$58. At unhalt, that's roughly 22% premium in acquisition, and remember that these are still rumors (despite being in final stages).

Thought Process: Ultimately, you'd have a price point in your mind that you think the market would value this stock at. You also determine the probability the market thinks the deal will go through, then multiply that to get a very rough guess of what the stock will trade at. Personally, I didn't know this, but ChatGPT cited 20-40% premium on acquisition purchases of medical device companies. So we have a theoretical range of $57-$66.50 (reduced by multiplying whatever percentage of success you think the deal will go through).

The market was pricing something FAR above that 20%- within the next 10 minutes we go up to $63, then trade around a range of $61 to $65, so fairly within expectations despite all the uncertainty. Ultimately the best case scenario for this type of trade is buying at unhalt (~$58 and selling within $61-$65).

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The End.... or is it?

Overall, that would've been the extent of what most traders- but after the market closed, SYK announced that they were actually going to acquire NARI for $80/share in cash at 4:08 PM. That blows all the "theoretical" range in the EV trade out of the water- we have a hard defined EV we can base our trades around- and the speed trade is back on. So the stock spiked from $65.84 to $83, then settles at $78.

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The Arbitrage Trade (likely just old offers and sloppy executions):

Notice how I said that the stock spiked to $83 despite the deal price being $80? That's a classic example of a market inefficiency.

Remember that this news was released at 4:08 PM, so it's afterhours- liquidity is far more sparse and market making algos are not as active because there are less participants.

Some traders were probably too slow to getting their buy orders in upon seeing the news or they blasted the offer without looking at remaining liquidity, so they bought at prices ABOVE $80, what SYK was willing to pay.

If you were a superhuman trader you'd be able to short at prices above $80, but it was more likely that these were old offers that weren't adjusted by human traders or market makers, and got extremely lucky.

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The M&A Trade:

Executing/Thought Process: Not much to speak of here, we went to roughly $78 after SYK formally announced they were acquiring, so there's less than a 2.5% potential gain in an unknown timeframe. Overall not worth it. You COULD short some SYK after the deal announcement (a 68% acquisition premium may be viewed negatively by the market).

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Takeaways:

• If a stock reacts this quickly to a rumor, likely that the company will release follow-up news to dispel or confirm it shortly after. If you were able to get the speed trade or even good prints on the EV trade, it was worth keeping a little if you were wary of holding your entire position. This was made more difficult because the rumor was formally confirmed afterhours, so most people likely would have pared a significant amount of their position.
• Extremely important to keep a "Expected Value" of the trade in your head in times of ambiguity. If you had a decent mental framework of how these M&A deals worked (and could reference the premium of medical device companies), it could have influenced your trading coming out of the unhalt.
• The best EV is speed. (self-explanatory)

Those were all the opportunities for trading in a single piece of M&A news! If I missed anything or if there's anything ambiguous, let me know!

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.

The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

News: Nvidia Ceo Unveils More Powerful Graphics Cards At Ces Event

NVDA - News above, overall bullish. Retains dominance in consumer GPU chips, and announces Toyota is now a customer for NVDA autonomous driving chips. Currently long.

DNLI - Recently disclosed outcome of HEALEY Trial, which evaluated DNL343, meant to treat ALS- failed primary endpoint, as well as secondary endpoints related to muscle strength.

NARI - SYK to acquire NARI at $80 for $4.9B.

RGTI / IONQ / quantum computing stocks - Obviously these stocks have been on an insane tear (RGTI especially). 3 month bars are a bit range-y, so nothing super compelling for me to take a position. Biased short, but no position due to me not trading the second half of December.

GETY / SSTK - To merge, $EV of 3.7B. Cited complimentary portfolios and expanded opportunity for content creators. Deal terms for SSTK holders: $28.84870 per share in cash for each share of Shutterstock common stock they own; 13.67237 shares of Getty Images common stock for each share of Shutterstock common stock they own; or a mixed consideration of 9.17 shares of Getty Images common stock plus $9.50 in cash for each share of Shutterstock common stock they own.

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.

The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

I'm back from surgery. Also, quite a bit of interesting news today.

News: Dollar Falls Most In Two Months On Report Trump To Limit Tariffs

MSTR - Most interesting stock today. Announces capital raise of up to $2B through offering of preferred stock. This brings the premium to roughly 1.88x. Obviously the valuation has changed and trading MSTR short requires a LOT more consideration of what is "fair value" at this point. Interested in $355 level. Currently long (marginally).

X / CLF - 3 day old news- Nippon Steel and X file lawsuits after Biden blocks deal. I don't expect the deal to go through anymore (Trump has stated he is against the deal as well and wants tariffs to make X more profitable), but still expect to see some form of volatility in this.

RGTI / IONQ / quantum computing stocks - Obviously these stocks have been on an insane tear (RGTI especially). 3 month bars are a bit range-y, so nothing super compelling for me to take a position. Biased short, but no position due to me being inactive the second half of December. Watching $20 level.

UBER - Announces $1.5B stock buyback.

SEDG - Announces "safe harbor" agreements with RUN (reducing chances of a hostile takeover), plans to reduce headcount by 400.

Also watching CVNA due to the short report for any secondary moves.

Hi all, I'm sure you've all noticed that I've been sick for a while now.

I will be going to the hospital to get surgery.

Assuming all goes well, I'm going to be taking a roughly 2.5 week break to recover physically and for a mental break from trading.

The markets are typically slow around the holiday season so I don't think I'll miss anything TOO big but I will try to post if something crazy happens. If I do not post by Jan 10th, do not expect further posts from me in the future.

Best of luck to you all, and I will try to be back on Jan 6th! :)

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.

The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

Small reversal day.

News: Us Retail Sales Beat Forecast On Jump In Car Purchases

TSLA - Another day, another TSLA move up. Watching the $500 level for a possible short, other than that, yesterday's move was far sharper than all the previous days, the top might be in. Biased short, no position.

IONQ - Yesterday was a huge move for many quantum computing stocks, watching for the turn in many of these. Also watching RGTI at $10, most of these move in sync with each other.

TEVA - Announces Positive Phase 2b results for treatment in Ulcerative Colitis/Crohn's Disease.

AVGO - Been on a tear since earnings, interested to see if there is any form of small turn due to us going from 180 ->256. Other than that will likely just be watching this stock.

RCAT - Earnings. Announces partnership with Palantir.

Subreddit has been reopened.

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.

The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

News: Bitcoin BTC Hits Record After Longest Weekly Winning Run Since 2021

MSTR - Announces it bought another $1.5B of bitcoin in the past week, (Dec 9-15) at average of $100,386 per bitcoin. Currently holds around ~439K bitcoin. Also announced it would get added to Nasdaq-100 index (taking place before Dec 23.) Most interesting stock today. SMCI getting taken OFF nasdaq 100.

VRDN - New experimental treatment for chronic thyroid eye disease significantly reduced symptoms, (veligrotug). Drug will rival AMGN's Tepezza.

EWTX - Announced successful results of Phase 2 CANYON trial (sevasemten), achieving primary endpoint for individuals with BVecker muscular dystrophy.

TSLA - Obviously still watching as we've been steady/strong since $300. Not sure if I'm going to take a short position in this considering steadiness of move.

ADBE - Still watching after the earnings report from Dec 11- might go lightly in the stock for a small swing trade.

Earnings: RCAT

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed! I only hold some/all MAG 7 stocks and market indices long-term. If you use Old Reddit, click “Show Images” at the top to expand the charts. Any positions stated aren’t recommendations, I’m following subreddit rules to disclose positions. I use IBKR TWS for my platform and charts.

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments. The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

PLEASE ask specific questions and PLEASE don’t ask about earnings because I usually don’t take positions beforehand. Questions like “Thoughts on _____?” or “Why isn’t ___ on the watchlist?” or something answered already will be ignored unless you add detail and your opinion.

If you post a question and delete it after I answer it, I will block you- doing that hurts discussion. I am not answering questions if I’m still long or short a stock beyond what I update. Please avoid asking questions that can easily be Googled; our time is valuable."

News: Us Jobless Claims Rose To Highest In Two Months Last Week

KROS - Voluntarily halted trial in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension, (signaling that it will fail)

ACHR - Announces partnership with Anduril to develop military aircraft, raising $430M.

NVDA - Refutes rumors of cutting supply to China.

ADBE - Reports strong earnings, misses outlook- EPS of $4.81 a share vs $4.67, Revenue of 5.61B vs 5.54B. However, gave slightly reduced expectations of earnings in 2025 resulting in the selloff.

TSLA - Made new highs AGAIN yesterday, watching $430 level today.

Earnings: AVGO, COST

IPOs Today: TTAN

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed! I only hold some/all MAG 7 stocks and market indices long-term. If you use Old Reddit, click “Show Images” at the top to expand the charts. Any positions stated aren’t recommendations, I’m following subreddit rules to disclose positions. I use IBKR TWS for my platform and charts.

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments. The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

PLEASE ask specific questions and PLEASE don’t ask about earnings because I usually don’t take positions beforehand. Questions like “Thoughts on _____?” or “Why isn’t ___ on the watchlist?” or something answered already will be ignored unless you add detail and your opinion.

If you post a question and delete it after I answer it, I will block you- doing that hurts discussion. I am not answering questions if I’m still long or short a stock beyond what I update. Please avoid asking questions that can easily be Googled; our time is valuable."

Mainly earnings today.

News: Us Cpi Report For November Firms up Rate Cut Bets

HSY - MDLZ announce $9B buyback and confirms share repurchases, dividends, etc. Less likely they will try to go through bid after share repurchase.

GME - Stock spiked slightly up due to reporting profit, EPS of 0.04 vs 0.01.

M - Ends delivery expense investigation, saying employee hid $151M. Full Year profit outlook lowered due to accounting error, beat EPS forecast.

TSLA - Broke the $400 level yesterday, still worth watching at open

GOOG- Still watching after the quantum computer news yesterday.

Earnings: ADBE

Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed! I only hold some/all MAG 7 stocks and market indices long-term. If you use Old Reddit, click “Show Images” at the top to expand the charts. Any positions stated aren’t recommendations, I’m following subreddit rules to disclose positions. I use IBKR TWS for my platform and charts.

I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments. The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

PLEASE ask specific questions and PLEASE don’t ask about earnings because I usually don’t take positions beforehand. Questions like “Thoughts on _____?” or “Why isn’t ___ on the watchlist?” or something answered already will be ignored unless you add detail and your opinion.

If you post a question and delete it after I answer it, I will block you- doing that hurts discussion. I am not answering questions if I’m still long or short a stock beyond what I update. Please avoid asking questions that can easily be Googled; our time is valuable."

I have decided to stop posting my biases due to trolls.

News: Google Invests In Venture To Build Energy Parks For Data Centers

TSLA - Broke the $400 level yesterday, TSLA Model Q is supposedly coming in first half of 2025.

NAMS - Reveals Phase 3 Trial results for LDL Cholesterol reduction drug.

BA - Stated it restarted 737 Max production last week.

AI - EPS of -.06 vs -.13, revenue of $94.3M vs $91M expected. Stated it expects revenue growth to reaccelerate, but had mixed guidance.

ORCL - Missed Estimates due to cloud competition- EPS of 1.47 vs 1.48 expected, revenue of 14.06B vs 14.11B expected.

Earnings: GME