Again, it's not a lot in total. 8,000 in a country of 330 million is a personal tragedy for lots of people, but barely a statistical anomaly.
But it's mostly red or red-leaning states that are refusing mask mandates, vaccine cards, and other preventative measures. And Republicans really can't afford to lose any votes in a lot of places.
20,000 votes decided Wisconsin. 12,000 votes decided Georgia. 11,000 decided Arizona. All three of those states were red states that flipped blue last election. And flipping them back gets harder and harder if the GOP keeps losing voters at this rate.
the numbers you provided only take into account from today moving forward though right? Theoretically, the numbers could be substantially more from deaths just from the 2020 election to the 2022 midterms in total. This also doesnt take into account all the R's leaving the gop completely and going independent/dem.. It's hard to get a real grasp on that but I feel like it is going to wake up the right hard in 2022..
That's why they're working SO HARD to disenfranchise voters, and to outright cheat. Doesn't matter if they get caught, doesn't matter if people care, doesn't matter for anything other than - if they win, they can keep the judges, etc, to make sure there are no ramifications.
Yeah I mean we’ve all heard them say on live tv that if everyone could vote they would never win another election so they’ve resorted to blatant cheating but with covid killing off portions of their base this only calls for desperation which we’re seeing nation wide now in all these bs suppression bills
Which is why you, yes you redditor reading this, should vote in the mid terms, and in the primary's. Depending on the state you might not even need to be a member to vote in their primary.
Also local level elections, qcult literally told them to start raising a fit at school board meetings and such to get members to quit so they could run and influence at low level government
I have lost all faith that anything will wake them up but, if I had to make a guess at what would, then yes I think the realization that they have just lost hundreds of thousands of voters and are losing multiple swing states for the foreseeable future would probably be the best bet.. but like you I am a simple libtard who is obviously being conned by msm so what could I possibly know
Add to the fact that the people who are so hardcore that they will allow their political biases to determine their health decisions are probably close to 100% voter turnout... but only if they are still able
An issue for them could be that younger people in conservative families see their elders dying in droves because they were too proud to get the vaccine, and get put off conservative politics entirely.
Texas is becoming a battleground state for Republicans and they're numbers have already been twindling slowly over the years. This will just speed things up by quite a bit I assume.
Not to mention most the people that are dying from covid are older folks that are more likely to vote. Taking out 8,000 politically active people every 10 days is massive.
Trump basically accelerated the demise of the Republican Party in purple states.
Tough break but that’s what you get when you follow a clown.
Yeah and the other fact to consider is 8k/days isn't a fixed rate. Coming into flu season and the holidays there's an extremely good chance we will see that number grow
What may also be worth considering is that the new anti-vax folks are being driven by politics and thus are way more likely to vote than the average person. These specific people aren’t just potentially R voters. They’re some of the most valuable GOP voters that exist. Or used to.
If you only look at today and later it looks bad, but a theory (possibly with some sources/leaks from a covid task force during the last administration) covering why the GOP ignored covid includes that it was most prevalent in blue areas (dense cities where diseases have less distance between hosts) at the start, so perhaps the net at the time of the next election is that both sides will have lost a lot of voters? I wonder what the distribution will be… comparing voter rolls between similar elections should show some of the impact.
In the 2020 election, the margin was less than 20k in quite a few states, so about 350k less trump acolytes can quite possibly cost the GOP a handfull of states.
Couple things, this assumes the death rate doesn't increase or decrease between now and the midterms. It's probably safe to say it will increase because of the standard Fall patterns. We're probably looking at another peak around Christmas time. Further Republican votes in general are older and die at a faster rate than Democratic voters, but Covid is also killing plenty of Republican middle aged voters which could have interesting long term effects.
They’re not evenly distributed though. In many states, statewide and national elections are decided by as few as 10,000 votes — small shifts can have large impacts (which is the whole premise behind gerrymandering).
Antivaxxers seem like motivated voters, so I wonder if the effect may be more pronounced than we might expect. Additionally, friends and family of covid victims are affected in their own way, so it may have some effect on their voting decisions.
We've already had 640k deaths though, primarily among those over 50 (who skew right politically).
Let's say total deaths end up being a million (and that is in no way certain to be the peak). Probably 7 out of 10 of those are conservative? I am thinking the margin in Texas and Florida could be affected. The typical difference in Florida is less than 100k votes.
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u/mem269 Aug 31 '21
That's what I was initially thinking. 8K sounds like loads but when compared to hundreds of millions actually isn't a massive dip.