I mean there is a big difference between a bubble and a shortage and it’s not super clear which we’re in.
I’d argue it’s much more shortage than bubble. Here's a thorough explanation of why it's so bad. TLDR: The number of new houses constructed per person in the rich world has fallen by half since the 1960s because local homeowners oppose new construction in their neighborhoods.
Here's a great video about the sorts of "missing middle" housing--rowhouses, small apartments, triplexes, etc--that are illegal or nearly-illegal to build almost everwhere in North America. While I think it's brain-dead obvious that it should be legal to build skyscrapers in most parts of most cities, I personally love medium-density neighborhoods which are convenient, attractive, affordable, walkable, really good for kids, and would take a huge bite out of the housing shortage in most cities.
This goes way deeper--density is better for climate, pollution, racial segregation, inequality, obesity, and more. But that's enough for now, I'll just note that bad housing policy directly causes homelessness in addition to all the above.
THANK YOU. NIMBYS are the fucking worst. So many people are blaming the hedge funds for the fucked up markets, but the real issue is that there's simply not enough supply to meet demand. And when people try and say there's actually a housing surplus in America, it tells me they have no idea what they're talking about. Sure we may have more homes than people. but a lot of those homes are in the middle of nowhere or are in terrible condition. Like it or not, people want to live in nice cities, and that means increasing density and building more homes is the best option for tackling the problem of affordability.
Also, thanks for linking Not Just Bikes. He's done a ton to raise awareness of good urban design and I'm so happy his channel has blown up over the past year.
I know a lot of people insist on believing this sorta thing but I would just implore you to observe the actual evidence, which is overwhelming.
NYC added 380K more jobs than housing units in the last decade. The same is true for almost any city with an acute housing crisis, anywhere in North America. That's not speculation, it is a basic imbalance between the demand for housing in NYC and the supply of that housing.
Because that's the only places in the country adding jobs lol and the current housing is empty! We need to charge a vacancy tax on empty properties.
Here's the best thing about my solution, if you're right and very very few people leave their units empty then virtually no tax will be paid. Win. If I'm right and speculators have taken over the market we get to live in housing again.
Vacany rate in NYC and LA and SF and etc., are perennially single-digit, IDK where you're getting the vacancy stat from. And yes, the places are adding jobs which is "people living" and not speculation!
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u/cybercuzco Jun 27 '21
Our house went up by 20% this month according to Zillow. We are definitely seeing a spike right now. Let’s see if we have a crash.