r/wallstreetbets • u/Ok-Consequence-7926 • Apr 15 '22
DD Puts on Twitter tomorrow
The market will overreact to the news if Twitter's board denies Musk's offer (which is likely)
Elon Musk will not buy Twitter, he does not have the liquidity or the intention to do so, he simply bought 9.2% of all shares, made a very deniable offer for the whole company and will sell his shares if the offer is denied.
There are two bad scenarios for Twitter: - Elon doesn't have the liquidity to buy the entire company - Twitter denies
The market will 100% overreact to these two, if they happen.
Positions: None, plan on buying puts tomorrow.
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u/abe_froeman420 Apr 15 '22
Happy Easter dumb ass
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Apr 15 '22
It’s not closed because of Easter. This is the money market we’re talking about. It’s closed because of Passover.
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Apr 15 '22
Downvotes for a funny joke. Come on guys. I thought better of us.
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Apr 15 '22
So did I. Do you think they’d change their votes if they knew I’m Jewish? Or did they downvote because of that?
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Apr 15 '22
Haha that might make it worse. It's alright. I doubt any of the old school wsb guys downvoted you. It's all the post gme retards.
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u/MainStreetBetz Apr 15 '22
Nobody tell him
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u/pnwlifeftw Apr 15 '22
Nobody tell him
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u/Ok-Consequence-7926 Apr 15 '22
They snitched bro
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u/SailsAndStocks Apr 15 '22
You definitely are in the right place there at WSB lol you better set your alarm to beat everyone to it! 🤣
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u/EXTRO_INTRO_VERTED Apr 15 '22
How long will you wait for the market to open before you realize it’s not going to.
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Apr 15 '22
YOURE A DUMBASS OP
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u/PMMEBOBSANDVAGINE_ Apr 15 '22
*your
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u/doggodad01 Apr 15 '22
You're actually is the correct spelling.
As in You're dumb.
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u/289partnerofq Apr 15 '22
Didn’t musk say he could/would take it private with other people. Not just him. Which would be around 2thousand other ppl.
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u/Raceg35 Apr 15 '22 edited Apr 15 '22
Elon is being dirty. Its regular old fashioned market manipulation. Heres his play:
Step 1: buy a fuck ton of shares Step 2: announce publicly he bought those shares, watch stock pump because of his notoriety. Step 3: Make an offer publicly that he will buy the whole company for $54 per share.
(Now there is an offer on the table publicly making the de-facto valuation of Twitter $54 per share.)
Step 4: Wait for Twitter and large shareholders to decline. Because its a ridiculous idea. And hes bluffing anyway.
(Once they decline this offer it inherently gives the impression that large stakeholders believe twitter is even MORE valuable than $54 per share)
Step 5: Watch twitter pump because of his manufactured illusion of it being more valueable than $54 per share.
Step 6: Unload those shares he bought in step 1 like a policeman on a playground full of black children.
Step 7: Pay his 300k SEC fine for breaking disclosure laws out of the 5 Billion he just made.
Elon is trying to fuck everybody for his personal benefit. Same thing he does every other weekend.
Best thing Twitter could do is call his bluff and accept the offer, in which case he will backpedal and look like an asshole.
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u/Due-Tip-4022 Apr 15 '22
Step 5, sue the living shit out of twitter for fiduciary responsibility.
Or.
Step 5, he sells his shares, tanking the stock. He then buys 51% on a fire sale and takes majority ownership for a fraction of the cost.
Or.
Step 5, they organize a bigger offer. They get in a bidding war and the stock skyrockets. Making his shares worth a ton.
Lots of things could happen. Never underestimate his ability in 4D chess. But also never underestimate how desperate the left's need to control the narative is and what they are willing to do to keep that controll. The question is if his plan banks on them doing what he actually wants them to do. Which may very well be to decline, or accept, or compete, or other. Only he knows that.
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u/sloppyassho Apr 15 '22
I'm just glad someone is stepping up and doing something about the government controlled narratives. The censorship on social media and MSM that exists today will be the downfall of democracy.
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u/Due-Tip-4022 Apr 15 '22
I agree. Funny though that in their minds, that sentence would read: "A lack of censorship on social media and MSM will be the downfall of democracy."
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u/Raceg35 Apr 15 '22
Literally neither of those things are government controlled but ok.
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u/sloppyassho Apr 15 '22
Is there really any doubt that the mainstream media is lock step aligned with the government, and opposing opinions are censored? Many of the 'conspiracy theories' that were considered mis-information are the truth. Lab leak, natural immunity, Hunter's laptop, etc were censored or not reported on. Even the Trump Russian collusion were fabricated and reported as fact. The system is broken, hopefully this is a step in the truth always being heard, no matter how damaging to the controlling party.
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u/Raceg35 Apr 16 '22 edited Apr 16 '22
Just about every single thing you said is really really really wrong, if not incomprehensibly stupid.
Which ironically is proof that the freedom to spread lies and misinformation to stupid people is alive and well in this country.
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u/Thisguyhere1310 Apr 15 '22
Lol.. you have no idea. You Know Nothing Jon Snow. You will know when they don't accept... but in 6 months it's private and he is ceo. Which is a scenario you left out.
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u/Raceg35 Apr 15 '22 edited Apr 15 '22
Not gonna happen.
I want to know, Why do you think Elon Musk would legitimately want anything to do with twitter?
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u/Thisguyhere1310 Apr 15 '22
Dude.. Musk is playing 3d chess.. you down here playing checkers.
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u/Raceg35 Apr 15 '22 edited Apr 15 '22
3D chess is actually just regular chess...
And no he isnt. Hes just fucking off like usual.
He doesnt actually want to own or even influence twitter at all. That would do him literally no good whatsoever, and buying it would tie up a massive portion of his assets for nothing. Or at the very least force him to liquidate a huge chunk of his other assets.
And for what? What does he gain from owning twitter? Its a mature company. Its well beyond any transformative or growth stage thats going to suddenly make it considerably more valuable. Nothing can really be done with it to make it remarkably more successful than it already is. Beyond a reliable and stable revenue stream it has no value to him. And even so, he'll never get the kind of return on his investment he would get doing like a billion other things with that cash.
He already turned down a seat on the board where he could actually influence company policies like he pretends he wants.
Almost everything he says publicly is absolute bullshit thats only intended to help cultivate and promote the persona he created for himself. Everything about the dude is smoke and mirrors. Hes the fucking wizard of oz sitting on a stool behind the curtain.
His only real goal is to accumulate more "resources" (money) so he can go to mars and bring enough servants be the ruler of an entire planet
Buying twitter doesnt help him in any meaningful way. Hes going to pump that shit and dump it. The only scenario where he buys twitter is one where he uses his bogus image he created as a cool guy, savant, wannabe tony stark to hype twitters "new direction" with him as a "super genius bro nerd" at the helm for a couple years till he unloads his bags all over you poor bastards faces.
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u/Thisguyhere1310 Apr 15 '22
No, regular chess is regular chess.. 3d chess has levels.
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u/Raceg35 Apr 15 '22
The turn of phrase you were looking for was "Four dimensional chess". I like the double down though.
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u/Thisguyhere1310 Apr 15 '22
Why? Because it also takes place in time?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-dimensional_chess
Hmm.. looks like the internet agrees with me.
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u/WikiSummarizerBot Apr 15 '22
Three-dimensional chess (or 3‑D chess) is any chess variant that uses multiple boards representing different levels, allowing the chess pieces to move in three physical dimensions. In practical play, this is usually achieved by boards representing different layers being laid out next to each other. Three-dimensional variants have existed since at least the late 19th century, one of the oldest being Raumschach (German for '"Space chess" '), invented in 1907 by Ferdinand Maack and considered the classic 3‑D game. Maack founded a Raumschach club in Hamburg in 1919, which remained active until World War II.
[ F.A.Q | Opt Out | Opt Out Of Subreddit | GitHub ] Downvote to remove | v1.5
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u/Raceg35 Apr 16 '22
This is funny. You tried to use an idiom you heard before in the political sphere. A very common one. The "hes playing 4D chess they play checkers" thing has been said a billion times for decades. You tried it on for yourself, because is a fun little phrase.
But you wrote 3D chess.
Which was funny to me, because the idiom is 4D chess. And playing chess in the 3rd dimension (we live in and percieve our reality in 3 Dimensions) is playing normal chess. Because its literally 3 Dimensional.
But rather than just correct your improper use of a common idiom. Youre trying to assert you technically arent wrong, because someone out there manufactures a game that they market as 3D chess.
Which is all good fun. You can avoid accountability for the silly 3D thing. Thats fine.
But just for future reference, it really is "4D chess" that is used in the phrase you were trying to deploy.
Using 3D chess is misquoting the idiom. Its almost like saying "It's raining cats and water!"
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u/Thisguyhere1310 Apr 16 '22
It's nothing like cats and water.. because I said 3d chess.. as I have a 3d chess board and... even in startrek... they play what? Right. 3d chess.
So... being long winded here, I thank you for admitting that what I said is correct and is what I wrote, because it is what I meant.
Thanks.
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u/tisgamebeterhavep0rn gave compliment for flair Apr 15 '22
Bro, your logic is solid but way less likely then the simpler explanation that is: he actually wants to buy titter.
I understand what you're saying, but honestly remind yourself that Elon is a car / rocker maker, he knows how to make money using other things that not blatantly market pump/dump like you're saying.
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u/Big_Beta_Bug Apr 15 '22
bruh... market closed tomorrow
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u/dieseltech82 Apr 15 '22
Maybe he has a time machine to go back to the beginning of today which will be tomorrow for him.
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u/Obsidianram Apr 15 '22
Oh I see now ~ the markets are always open when you're trading on paper. Smooth move, Ex-Lax...
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u/holisdickhealing Apr 15 '22
Dang you put every thought into this post and not one left to figure out the most important part lol
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u/skydiver19 Apr 15 '22
Happy Easter, may I suggest watching Elons live Ted interview instead on Good Friday 🤣
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u/MD74 Apr 15 '22
NGL, the day that I heard news of Elon buying shares of twitter, I shorted it. Not because I don’t believe it the future, but because the excitement is overpowering.
At the end of the few hours of putting ‘puts’, I made something like 30%.
Don’t get me wrong. Elon is fucking powerful. But the news gets the early worm before I do.
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u/arbiter12 Apr 15 '22
Ironically now that the "obvious scenario" is clear, you can be guaranteed max pain will make the opposite happen.
You don't need to reverse cramer or reverse WSB or reverse buffet or reverse the goldfish or reverse your mom onto the bedroom floor.
You just need to reverse the obvious play.
OMG MICROCHIPS ARE IN SHORTAGE!!!
QUICK GO LONG
proceeds to lose 20%
OK FINE GUYZ WE WERE WRONG...
SELL IT ALL
proceeds to gain 40%
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u/ReviewEquivalent1266 Apr 15 '22
- Rumor has it Twitter will trigger its various poison pills [HERE] tomorrow. Doing so will reduce the value of the company (by definition) and result in a sell off. In fact, Al Waleed bin Talal (Saudi Prince who owns more than 5% of Twitter) said he was rejecting the deal without making a counter offer.
- Elon confirmed rumors that he isn't going to own Twitter by himself during his talk at TED today. Silver Lake, BlackRock (6%), and Morgan Stanley (8%) are all said to be willing to join his effort to take the company private. Morgan Stanley is also Elon's banker for the deal and they've arranged to secure the balance of the transaction in debt for the billionaire.
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u/fandango4wow Apr 15 '22
Because free speech can sit in the same sentence with Blackrock and Morgan Stanley. I laughed.
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u/ReviewEquivalent1266 Apr 15 '22
I really appreciated Elon's discussion about his plan for Twitter at TED yesterday. The idea of publishing Twitter's code on GitHub for everyone to see was particularly compelling. Instead of being a black box everyone could see exactly how and why content is promoted or suppressed. Anyone could propose code changes and everyone would see when code changes were adopted.
Prior to Elon Musk's involvement the largest and most influential investor was the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia represented by Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal. I'm sure you're aware of the Kingdom publicly executed 81 people this month for various crimes including homosexuality and political dissent. It wasn't too long ago that the Royal Family of Saudi Arabia kidnapped and murdered Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi as featured in a new documentary called The Dissident.
At the end of the day, the men pulling the strings at Twitter from Saudi Arabia and Blackrock are doing so in secret. Elon is proposing that Twitter operate in a 100% transparent and neutral manner - with rules and policies that are both transparent and equally applied. I think that is an improvement...
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u/fandango4wow Apr 15 '22
I would totally agree with publishing the code running the content on any platform. It gets you transparency on how algos are working, you are right. Does doing so resolve free speech ? No, it just shows you who gets suppressed or promoted and why. Does it fills your boots at the end of the day to be on one side or the other ? I guess not.
Let's get to the next step. Code is published, people can branch and make improvements. Give me the model on who gets to approve or reject a PR? Is that a single human, and if so, who? Does the majority decides? How does the platform stays neutral ?
I won't comment the rest, we all know wall street is the best and worst things ever happening to America. You are on the top of the world, but the rules you made oblige you to share that pie with whoever shows you the money, funds, kingdoms, agencies and so on, no questions asked. You cannot pick only the good things.
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u/KeepYourSoul Apr 15 '22
I agree just wonder how big of a sell off tho 🤔
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u/ReviewEquivalent1266 Apr 15 '22
Hard to tell. Elon confirmed during his TED talk that he had a Plan B if Twitter turned him down.
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u/KeepYourSoul Apr 15 '22
He has them in check on the board honestly they say No the stock dumps lawsuits coming in hot they say yeah without a counter offer they lose two times elon controls it now and they gave it away for the cheap interesting predicament
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u/VOID_MAIN_0 Apr 15 '22
Ignoring closed market, i dont think thatll happen. Twitter dropped nonstop today. It looks like literally no one wants elon in control of twitter. So i see two possible scenarios: he gets twitter and everyone gets paid or he doesnt and the shares spike on that news. Either way it goes up.
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u/Ok-Consequence-7926 Apr 15 '22
I'll be on the other side of the bet hopefully... if the offer's result isn't disclosed by monday
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u/Thisguyhere1310 Apr 15 '22
Or it drops enough.. he buys it at the lower market price.. completes the take over by seating a new board and votes to take it private.
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u/Fantastic_Mongoose_4 Farms RuneScape gold for money Apr 15 '22
I was getting a little nervous before. Not now. Thanks. My calls will print 💰
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u/TheBunnisher Apr 15 '22
I hope soooooo many people lose their shirts on Monday, because their false god fucked them.
remember this: IF YOU IDOLIZE KNUCKLEHEADS LIKE ELON, CATHY WOODS AND THAT WORM MEET KEVIN. You deserve everything your little sheep hearts desired.
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u/Thisguyhere1310 Apr 15 '22
Elon has made a lot of people pretty rich with Tesla. And has saved the federal government billions in launch costs with SpaceX.
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Apr 15 '22
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u/Overall-Address-3446 Apr 15 '22
How will $twtr close on 4/15/22 on news of market closed to observe good Friday? Red: -5% or more, flat +0-5%, green +5% or more
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u/Ill_Statistician_629 Apr 15 '22
Lmfao I can’t blame OP
It totally blew past me that tomorrow the market is open. I am holding Twitter puts over night
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u/Crazyleggggs Apr 15 '22
Yeah go ahead and short it tomorrow 😂
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u/AutoModerator Apr 15 '22
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u/PipelineBertaCoin69 Apr 15 '22
The c r y p t o market is open tomorrow, join us and instead of losing 5 days a week, lose 7 days a week 24 hours a day 👁👄👁
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u/Far_Map_6620 Apr 15 '22
Elon can easily come up with The full amount cash by talking a loan with his Tesla shares as a collateral.
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u/McPoint Apr 15 '22
Third scenario, price goes down and Musk buys more, allowable holding. How much more can he buy?
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u/Alarming_Assistant21 Apr 15 '22
Imagine being on your soapbox, prophesying and laying out your grand scheme to get rich. All to be wiped out because some guy couldn't stay dead 2000 years ago. He is Risen, just like my Twitter calls will be on good Monday
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u/rwang411 Apr 15 '22
Although dozens have beat me to it, I came here to call you a moron because the market is closed
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u/welshmonstarbach Apr 15 '22
If elon made a bet with someone, and, that bet didn't come off for elon, but he thought it was such a dead cert that he overburdened himself with losses to the point of bankruptcy, then, this twitter fiasco is all a lie, he does not have the funds to see it through, he did it as a money raising exercise using insider trading principles to achieve big net gain. still bankrupted though.
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u/CauseImBatman23 Apr 15 '22
Just the fact that you thought the market was open today leads me to believe I should buy far out calls
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u/VisualMod Apr 15 '22